Geology topics

V.E. Romanovsky

Publications and source records attributed to V.E. Romanovsky.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes

Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice-rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 × 10 6 km 2 , thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover ∼ 20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2015

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change ( γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2015

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Nature↗

USGS2013

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2011

Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Quantifying changes in thermokarst lake extent is of importance for understanding the permafrost-related carbon budget, including the potential release of carbon via lake expansion or sequestration as peat in drained lake basins. We used high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery from 1950/51, 1978, and 2006/07 to quantify changes in thermokarst lakes for a 700 km 2 area on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The number of water bodies larger than 0.1 ha increased over the entire observation period (666 to 737 or +10.7%); however, total surface area decreased (5,066 ha to 4,312 ha or -14.9%). This pattern can largely be explained by the formation of remnant ponds following partial drainage of larger water bodies. Thus, analysis of large lakes (>40 ha) shows a decrease of 24% and 26% in number and area, respectively, differing from lake changes reported from other continuous permafrost regions. Thermokarst lake expansion rates did not change substantially between 1950/51 and 1978 (0.35 m/yr) and 1978 and 2006/07 (0.39 m/yr). However, most lakes that drained did expand as a result of surface permafrost degradation before lateral drainage. Drainage rates over the observation period were stable (2.2 to 2.3 per year). Thus, analysis of decadal-scale, high spatial resolution imagery has shown that lake drainage in this region is triggered by lateral breaching and not subterranean infiltration. Future research should be directed toward better understanding thermokarst lake dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution as these systems have implications for landscape-scale hydrology and carbon budgets in thermokarst lake-rich regions in the circum-Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (~500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (~5.3 kg C m −2 ), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (~0.1 kg C m −2 ). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ~3.3 kg C m −2 , whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1–2.2 kg C m −2 ). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ~6.1 kg C m −2 , whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ~5.6 kg C m −2 . A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ~5.4 kg C m −2 . Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2010

Molecular investigations into a globally important carbon pool: Permafrost-protected carbon in Alaskan soils

The fate of carbon (C) contained within permafrost in boreal forest environments is an important consideration for the current and future carbon cycle as soils warm in northern latitudes. Currently, little is known about the microbiology or chemistry of permafrost soils that may affect its decomposition once soils thaw. We tested the hypothesis that low microbial abundances and activities in permafrost soils limit decomposition rates compared with active layer soils. We examined active layer and permafrost soils near Fairbanks, AK, the Yukon River, and the Arctic Circle. Soils were incubated in the lab under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Gas fluxes at -5 and 5 ??C were measured to calculate temperature response quotients (Q10). The Q10 was lower in permafrost soils (average 2.7) compared with active layer soils (average 7.5). Soil nutrients, leachable dissolved organic C (DOC) quality and quantity, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the soils revealed that the organic matter within permafrost soils is as labile, or even more so, than surface soils. Microbial abundances (fungi, bacteria, and subgroups: methanogens and Basidiomycetes) and exoenzyme activities involved in decomposition were lower in permafrost soils compared with active layer soils, which, together with the chemical data, supports the reduced Q10 values. CH4 fluxes were correlated with methanogen abundance and the highest CH4 production came from active layer soils. These results suggest that permafrost soils have high inherent decomposability, but low microbial abundances and activities reduce the temperature sensitivity of C fluxes. Despite these inherent limitations, however, respiration per unit soil C was higher in permafrost soils compared with active layer soils, suggesting that decomposition and heterotrophic respiration may contribute to a positive feedback to warming of this eco region. Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2010

Thermal state of permafrost in North America: A contribution to the international polar year

A snapshot of the thermal state of permafrost in northern North America during the International Polar Year (IPY) was developed using ground temperature data collected from 350 boreholes. More than half these were established during IPY to enhance the network in sparsely monitored regions. The measurement sites span a diverse range of ecoclimatic and geological conditions across the continent and are at various elevations within the Cordillera. The ground temperatures within the discontinuous permafrost zone are generally above -3°C, and range down to -15°C in the continuous zone. Ground temperature envelopes vary according to substrate, with shallow depths of zero annual amplitude for peat and mineral soils, and much greater depths for bedrock. New monitoring sites in the mountains of southern and central Yukon suggest that permafrost may be limited in extent. In concert with regional air temperatures, permafrost has generally been warming across North America for the past several decades, as indicated by measurements from the western Arctic since the 1970s and from parts of eastern Canada since the early 1990s. The rates of ground warming have been variable, but are generally greater north of the treeline. Latent heat effects in the southern discontinuous zone dominate the permafrost thermal regime close to 0°C and allow permafrost to persist under a warming climate. Consequently, the spatial diversity of permafrost thermal conditions is decreasing over time.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes↗

USGS2009

The effect of moisture content on the thermal conductivity of moss and organic soil horizons from black spruce ecosystems in interior alaska

Organic soil horizons function as important controls on the thermal state of near-surface soil and permafrost in high-latitude ecosystems. The thermal conductivity of organic horizons is typically lower than mineral soils and is closely linked to moisture content, bulk density, and water phase. In this study, we examined the relationship between thermal conductivity and soil moisture for different moss and organic horizon types in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska. We sampled organic horizons from feather moss-dominated and Sphagnum-dominated stands and divided horizons into live moss and fibrous and amorphous organic matter. Thermal conductivity measurements were made across a range of moisture contents using the transient line heat source method. Our findings indicate a strong positive and linear relationship between thawed thermal conductivity (K t ) and volumetric water content. We observed similar regression parameters (?? or slope) across moss types and organic horizons types and small differences in ?? 0 (y intercept) across organic horizon types. Live Sphagnum spp. had a higher range of K t than did live feather moss because of the field capacity (laboratory based) of live Sphagnum spp. In northern regions, the thermal properties of organic soil horizons play a critical role in mediating the effects of climate warming on permafrost conditions. Findings from this study could improve model parameterization of thermal properties in organic horizons and enhance our understanding of future permafrost and ecosystem dynamics. ?? 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Soil Science↗

USGS2006

Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems

In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze-thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960-2100 in extratropical regions (30-90??N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2-4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2005

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2003

Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century: a modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics

There is substantial evidence that soil thermal dynamics are changing in terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere and that these dynamics have implications for the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. To date, large-scale biogeochemical models have been slow to incorporate the effects of soil thermal dynamics on processes that affect carbon exchange with the atmosphere. In this study we incorporated a soil thermal module (STM), appropriate to both permafrost and non-permafrost soils, into a large-scale ecosystem model, version 5.0 of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). We then compared observed regional and seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO 2 to simulations of carbon dynamics for terrestrial ecosystems north of 30°N between TEM 5.0 and an earlier version of TEM (version 4.2) that lacked a STM. The timing of the draw-down of atmospheric CO 2 at the start of the growing season and the degree of draw-down during the growing season were substantially improved by the consideration of soil thermal dynamics. Both versions of TEM indicate that climate variability and change promoted the loss of carbon from temperate ecosystems during the first half of the 20th century, and promoted carbon storage during the second half of the century. The results of the simulations by TEM suggest that land-use change in temperate latitudes (30–60°N) plays a stronger role than climate change in driving trends for increased uptake of carbon in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems (30–90°N) during recent decades. In the 1980s the TEM 5.0 simulation estimated that extratropical terrestrial ecosystems stored 0.55 Pg C yr −1 , with 0.24 Pg C yr −1 in North America and 0.31 Pg C yr −1 in northern Eurasia. From 1990 through 1995 the model simulated that these ecosystems stored 0.90 Pg C yr −1 , with 0.27 Pg C yr −1 stored in North America and 0.63 Pg C yr −1 stored in northern Eurasia. Thus, in comparison to the 1980s, simulated net carbon storage in the 1990s was enhanced by an additional 0.35 Pg C yr −1 in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, with most of the additional storage in northern Eurasia. The carbon storage simulated by TEM 5.0 in the 1980s and 1990s was lower than estimates based on other methodologies, including estimates by atmospheric inversion models and remote sensing and inventory analyses. This suggests that other issues besides the role of soil thermal dynamics may be responsible, in part, for the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. In conclusion, the consideration of soil thermal dynamics and terrestrial cryospheric processes in modeling the global carbon cycle has helped to reduce biases in the simulation of the seasonality of carbon dynamics of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. This progress should lead to an enhanced ability to clarify the role of other issues that influence carbon dynamics in terrestrial regions that experience seasonal freezing and thawing of soil.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

USGS2002

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm ( R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated ( R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands ( R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Alaska↗