Geology topics

Timothy J. Walsh

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy J. Walsh.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2015

Paleoseismic evidence for late Holocene tectonic deformation along the Saddle mountain fault zone, Southeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Trench and wetland coring studies show that northeast‐striking strands of the Saddle Mountain fault zone ruptured the ground about 1000 years ago, generating prominent scarps. Three conspicuous subparallel fault scarps can be traced for 15 km on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery, traversing the foothills of the southeast Olympic Mountains: the Saddle Mountain east fault, the Saddle Mountain west fault, and the newly identified Sund Creek fault. Uplift of the Saddle Mountain east fault scarp impounded stream flow, forming Price Lake and submerging an existing forest, thereby leaving drowned stumps still rooted in place. Stratigraphy mapped in two trenches, one across the Saddle Mountain east fault and the other across the Sund Creek fault, records one and two earthquakes, respectively, as faulting juxtaposed Miocene‐age bedrock against glacial and postglacial deposits. Although the stratigraphy demonstrates that reverse motion generated the scarps, slip indicators measured on fault surfaces suggest a component of left‐lateral slip. From trench exposures, we estimate the postglacial slip rate to be 0.2 mm/yr and between 0.7 and 3.2 mm/yr during the past 3000 years. Integrating radiocarbon data from this study with earlier Saddle Mountain fault studies into an OxCal Bayesian statistical chronology model constrains the most recent paleoearthquake age of rupture across all three Saddle Mountain faults to 1170–970 calibrated years (cal B.P.), which overlaps with the nearby M w 7.5 1050–1020 cal B.P. Seattle fault earthquake. An earlier earthquake recorded in the Sund Creek trench exposure, dates to around 3500 cal B.P. The geometry of the Saddle Mountain faults and their near‐synchronous rupture to nearby faults 1000 years ago suggest that the Saddle Mountain fault zone forms a western boundary fault along which the fore‐arc blocks migrate northward in response to margin‐parallel shortening across the Puget Lowland.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Geologic map of the east half of the Bellevue South 7.5' x 15' quadrangle, Issaquah area, King County, Washington

The Issaquah area includes several of the most outstanding geologic features of the eastern Puget Lowland region. Folds have warped thousands of meters of Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks. Several hundred meters of both glacial and postglacial sediment have accumulated in a deep glacial trough, which is now partly occupied by Lake Sammamish but which was previously the conduit for massive volumes of meltwater during ice-sheet occupation and retreat. The eastern projection of an east-west-oriented crustal structure, which reflects Tertiary through Holocene fault displacement, extends across the eastern part of the map area. In addition to these geologic features, some of the most rapid human alteration of the landscape in the entire Puget Lowland has occurred here. Since the 19th century, coal was extensively mined and, since the early 1980s, the region has been overtaken by urbanization. In places, this alteration has dramatically accelerated the rate of geomorphic processes. For example, the hillsides have been regraded as a result of mining and quarries throughout the southern one-third of the quadrangle; stream channels have recently incised above the eastern shores of Lake Sammamish; and sediments have deposited on the lakeshore and into the lake itself.

Washington↗

USGS2003

Pleistocene tephrostratigraphy and paleogeography of southern Puget Sound near Olympia, Washington

Our detailed mapping in the south Puget Sound basin has identified two tephras that are tentatively correlated to tephras from Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier dated ca. 100-200 ka and 200 ka, respectively. This, plus the observation that fluvial and lacustrine sediments immediately underlying the Vashon Drift of latest Wisconsin age are nearly everywhere radiocarbon infinite, suggests that glacial and nonglacial sediments of more than the past five oxygen-isotope stages are exposed above sea level. Distal lacustrine advance outwash equivalent to the Lawton Clay in the Seattle area is conspicuously absent. Instead, a thick (>120 ft) glaciolacustrine silt below the Vashon sediments contains dropstones and is radiocarbon infinite. Elsewhere, coarsegrained advance Vashon outwash rests unconformably on radiocarbon-infinite non-glacial sediments. These relationships may imply that late Pleistocene tectonic activity has modified the paleotopography and stratigraphy of the south Puget Sound area.

Washington↗

USGS1999

Geological map of Washington - Southwest quadrant (digital edition)

This report comprises digital spatial data that constitute a partial transcription of the 1:250,000-scale Geologic map of Washington - southwest quadrant (Walsh and others, 1987); digital base material, symbolsets, and ARC Macro Language (AML) procedures to create a geologic map on a shaded-relief base from the digital spatial data; and Postscript and RTL plotfiles for such a geologic map. The digital transcription is incomplete: offshore folds and faults, the southern limit of the continental ice sheet in the Puget Lowland, the published base map (Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources map TM-1), geologic unit correlation diagrams, and most of the explanatory material that accompanies Walsh and others (1987) are not present here.

Washington↗