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Timothy J. Randle

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy J. Randle.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Dam removal cost databases and drivers

The United States (U.S.) has over 90,000 dams listed in the National Inventory of Dams that provide vital infrastructure to support water management for municipal and industrial uses including irrigation, hydropower, flood control, navigation, recreation, and habitat, among other uses (NID 2023). The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operate and maintain approximately 489 and 740 dams, respectively, as well as associated structures which provide flood risk management, navigation, water supply, hydropower, environmental stewardship, fish and wildlife conservation, and recreation benefits. As dams age, structural and operational maintenance investments increase until a time when decisions on whether to rehabilitate, replace, or decommission the dam need to be made. While most dams continue to provide important value even with maintenance requirements, at least 2,000 dams have been removed in the U.S. during the past 110 years, with an upward trend in the last few decades (American Rivers 2023). Decommissioning a dam may be considered when the purpose of the dam is no longer needed or other factors such as dam safety, fish passage, recreation safety, or river restoration goals take higher priority and are more economically feasible for the dam owner long-term. Dam safety programs, river restoration programs, and asset class management programs need cost estimating methods to consider dam decommissioning when appropriate. Traditional cost estimating approaches in planning stages focus mainly on dam removal construction and may leave out or have uncertainty on important complexities that can have substantial effects on total costs and be critical for project success. As the numbers of dam removal case studies increase, a growing set of cost data has become available (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023; American Rivers 2022). However, total costs vary over five orders of magnitude for similar size dams, and it was unclear why. We evaluated three sets of cost data that had varying level of details regarding elements contributing to dam removal costs reported by project managers working on the dam removal studies and construction means and methods. We created planning-level cost estimating tools to assist with projects needing to consider the dam removal alternative: (1) new databases of case studies (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023); (2) scoping questions to help determine if complexity cost drivers will be present; (3) machine learning based regression trees to estimate a potential cost range; and (4) a Computation Guide for Cost Estimating that can be used to inform discussions on potential dam removal cost items, quantities, and unit costs (appendix A). The collected data showed that dam height is important but is not a reliable predictor of the removal cost without considering other elements. However, knowing some basic characteristics about the average annual flow and geographic location of the dam site, in addition to dam size, can improve the ability to use past case studies for planning-level cost estimating. By additionally incorporating scoping questions related to sediment removal, mitigation, or other infrastructure, the likelihood of complexity cost drivers and the initial uncertainty of a cost estimate can be further reduced especially for small dams. Applying the Computation Guide for Cost Estimating requires more robust information but helps users reduce cost uncertainty. This step further refines the dam removal objective, removal approach (partial or full; phased or instantaneous), engineering design, construction means and methods, quantities, and unit costs, and results in a quantitative cost estimate.

Final Report↗
USGS2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled \$1.522 billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $1 thousand (k) to \$268.8 million (M). The median cost for dam removals was \$157k, \$823k, and \$6.2M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $5.09M and a mean absolute error of \$1.45M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Morphodynamic evolution following sediment release from the world’s largest dam removal

Sediment pulses can cause widespread, complex changes to rivers and coastal regions. Quantifying landscape response to sediment-supply changes is a long-standing problem in geomorphology, but the unanticipated nature of most sediment pulses rarely allows for detailed measurement of associated landscape processes and evolution. The intentional removal of two large dams on the Elwha River (Washington, USA) exposed ~30 Mt of impounded sediment to fluvial erosion, presenting a unique opportunity to quantify source-to-sink river and coastal responses to a massive sediment-source perturbation. Here we evaluate geomorphic evolution during and after the sediment pulse, presenting a 5-year sediment budget and morphodynamic analysis of the Elwha River and its delta. Approximately 65% of the sediment was eroded, of which only ~10% was deposited in the fluvial system. This restored fluvial supply of sand, gravel, and wood substantially changed the channel morphology. The remaining ~90% of the released sediment was transported to the coast, causing ~60 ha of delta growth. Although metrics of geomorphic change did not follow simple time-coherent paths, many signals peaked 1–2 years after the start of dam removal, indicating combined impulse and step-change disturbance responses.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Dam removal: Listening in

Dam removal is widely used as an approach for river restoration in the United States. The increase in dam removals—particularly large dams—and associated dam-removal studies over the last few decades motivated a working group at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis to review and synthesize available studies of dam removals and their findings. Based on dam removals thus far, some general conclusions have emerged: (1) physical responses are typically fast, with the rate of sediment erosion largely dependent on sediment characteristics and dam-removal strategy; (2) ecological responses to dam removal differ among the affected upstream, downstream, and reservoir reaches; (3) dam removal tends to quickly reestablish connectivity, restoring the movement of material and organisms between upstream and downstream river reaches; (4) geographic context, river history, and land use significantly influence river restoration trajectories and recovery potential because they control broader physical and ecological processes and conditions; and (5) quantitative modeling capability is improving, particularly for physical and broad-scale ecological effects, and gives managers information needed to understand and predict long-term effects of dam removal on riverine ecosystems. Although these studies collectively enhance our understanding of how riverine ecosystems respond to dam removal, knowledge gaps remain because most studies have been short (< 5 years) and do not adequately represent the diversity of dam types, watershed conditions, and dam-removal methods in the U.S.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Channel-planform evolution in four rivers of Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A.: The roles of physical drivers and trophic cascades

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A., to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors—excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago—are the dominant controls on channel planform of these gravel-bed rivers. We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers have widened significantly in recent decades, consistent with increased flood activity since the 1970s. Channel planform also reflects sediment-supply changes, evident from landslide response on the Elwha River. We surmise that the Hoh River, which shows a multi-decadal trend toward greater braiding, is adjusting to increased sediment supply associated with rapid glacial retreat. In this sediment-routing system with high connectivity, such climate-driven signals appear to propagate downstream without being buffered substantially by sediment storage. Legacy effects of anthropogenic modification likely also affect the Quinault River planform. We infer no correspondence between channel geomorphic evolution and elk abundance, suggesting that trophic-cascade effects in this setting are subsidiary to physical controls on channel morphology. Our findings differ from previous interpretations of Olympic National Park fluvial dynamics and contrast with the classic example of Yellowstone National Park, where legacy effects of elk overuse are apparent in channel morphology; we attribute these differences to hydrologic regime and large-wood availability.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: river channel and floodplain geomorphic change

A substantial increase in fluvial sediment supply relative to transport capacity causes complex, large-magnitude changes in river and floodplain morphology downstream. Although sedimentary and geomorphic responses to sediment pulses are a fundamental part of landscape evolution, few opportunities exist to quantify those processes over field scales. We investigated the downstream effects of sediment released during the largest dam removal in history, on the Elwha River, Washington, USA, by measuring changes in riverbed elevation and topography, bed sediment grain size, and channel planform as two dams were removed in stages over two years. As 10.5 million t (7.1 million m 3 ) of sediment was released from two former reservoirs, downstream dispersion of a sediment wave caused widespread bed aggradation of ~ 1 m (greater where pools filled), changed the river from pool&ndash;riffle to braided morphology, and decreased the slope of the lowermost river. The newly deposited sediment, which was finer than most of the pre-dam-removal bed, formed new bars (largely pebble, granule, and sand material), prompting aggradational channel avulsion that increased the channel braiding index by almost 50%. As a result of mainstem bed aggradation, floodplain channels received flow and accumulated new sediment even during low to moderate flow conditions. The river system showed a two- to tenfold greater geomorphic response to dam removal (in terms of bed elevation change magnitude) than it had to a 40-year flood event four years before dam removal. Two years after dam removal began, as the river had started to incise through deposits of the initial sediment wave, ~ 1.2 million t of new sediment (~ 10% of the amount released from the two reservoirs) was stored along 18 river km of the mainstem channel and 25 km of floodplain channels. The Elwha River thus was able to transport most of the released sediment to the river mouth. The geomorphic alterations and changing bed sediment grain size along the Elwha River have important ecological implications, affecting aquatic habitat structure, benthic fauna, salmonid fish spawning and rearing potential, and riparian vegetation. The response of the river to dam removal represents a unique opportunity to observe and quantify fundamental geomorphic processes associated with a massive sediment influx, and also provides important lessons for future river-restoration endeavors.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: source-to-sink sediment budget and synthesis

Understanding landscape responses to sediment supply changes constitutes a fundamental part of many problems in geomorphology, but opportunities to study such processes at field scales are rare. The phased removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington, exposed 21 &plusmn; 3 million m 3 , or ~ 30 million tonnes (t), of sediment that had been deposited in the two former reservoirs, allowing a comprehensive investigation of watershed and coastal responses to a substantial increase in sediment supply. Here we provide a source-to-sink sediment budget of this sediment release during the first two years of the project (September 2011&ndash;September 2013) and synthesize the geomorphic changes that occurred to downstream fluvial and coastal landforms. Owing to the phased removal of each dam, the release of sediment to the river was a function of the amount of dam structure removed, the progradation of reservoir delta sediments, exposure of more cohesive lakebed sediment, and the hydrologic conditions of the river. The greatest downstream geomorphic effects were observed after water bodies of both reservoirs were fully drained and fine (silt and clay) and coarse (sand and gravel) sediments were spilling past the former dam sites. After both dams were spilling fine and coarse sediments, river suspended-sediment concentrations were commonly several thousand mg/L with ~ 50% sand during moderate and high river flow. At the same time, a sand and gravel sediment wave dispersed down the river channel, filling channel pools and floodplain channels, aggrading much of the river channel by ~ 1 m, reducing river channel sediment grain sizes by ~ 16-fold, and depositing ~ 2.2 million m 3 of sand and gravel on the seafloor offshore of the river mouth. The total sediment budget during the first two years revealed that the vast majority (~ 90%) of the sediment released from the former reservoirs to the river passed through the fluvial system and was discharged to the coastal waters, where slightly less than half of the sediment was deposited in the river-mouth delta. Although most of the measured fluvial and coastal deposition was sand-sized and coarser (> 0.063 mm), significant mud deposition was observed in and around the mainstem river channel and on the seafloor. Woody debris, ranging from millimeter-size particles to old-growth trees and stumps, was also introduced to fluvial and coastal landforms during the dam removals. At the end of our two-year study, Elwha Dam was completely removed, Glines Canyon Dam had been 75% removed (full removal was completed 2014), and ~ 65% of the combined reservoir sediment masses&mdash;including ~ 8 Mt of fine-grained and ~ 12 Mt of coarse-grained sediment&mdash;remained within the former reservoirs. Reservoir sediment will continue to be released to the Elwha River following our two-year study owing to a ~ 16 m base level drop during the final removal of Glines Canyon Dam and to erosion from floods with larger magnitudes than occurred during our study. Comparisons with a geomorphic synthesis of small dam removals suggest that the rate of sediment erosion as a percent of storage was greater in the Elwha River during the first two years of the project than in the other systems. Comparisons with other Pacific Northwest dam removals suggest that these steep, high-energy rivers have enough stream power to export volumes of sediment deposited over several decades in only months to a few years. These results should assist with predicting and characterizing landscape responses to future dam removals and other perturbations to fluvial and coastal sediment budgets.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Avoiding The Inevitable? Capacity Loss From Reservoir Sedimentation

The inexorable loss of capacity of the nation's reservoirs—sooner or later threatening water supplies for municipal, agricultural, and industrial uses—is but one of a number of deleterious effects wrought by sediment deposition. Trapped sediments can also damage or bury dam outlets, water intakes, and related infrastructure. Downstream effects of sediment capture and retention by reservoirs can include channel and habitat degradation and biotic alterations.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Anticipated sediment delivery to the lower Elwha River during and following dam removal: Chapter 2 in Coastal habitats of the Elwha River, Washington--biological and physical patterns and processes prior to dam removal

During and after the planned incremental removal of two large, century-old concrete dams between 2011 and 2014, the sediment-transport regime in the lower Elwha River of western Washington will initially spike above background levels and then return to pre-dam conditions some years after complete dam removal. Measurements indicate the upper reaches of the steep-gradient Elwha River, draining the northeast section of the Olympic Mountains, carries between an estimated 120,000 and 290,000 cubic meters of sediment annually. This large load has deposited an estimated 19 million cubic meters of sediment within the two reservoirs formed by the Elwha and Glines Canyon Dams. It is anticipated that from 7 to 8 million cubic meters of this trapped sediment will mobilize and transport downstream during and after dam decommissioning, restoring the downstream sections of the sediment-starved river and nearshore marine environments. Downstream transport of sediment from the dam sites will have significant effects on channel morphology, water quality, and aquatic habitat during and after dam removal. Sediment concentrations are expected to be between 200 and 1,000 milligrams per liter during and just after dam removal and could rise to as much as 50,000 milligrams per liter during high flows. Downstream sedimentation in the river channel and flood plain will be potentially large, particularly in the lower Elwha River, an alluvial reach with a wide flood plain. Overall aggradation could be as much as one to several meters. Not all reservoir sediment, however, will be released to the river. Some material will remain on hill slopes and flood plains within the drained reservoirs in quantities that will depend on the hydrology, precipitation, and mechanics of the incising channel. Eventually, vegetation will stabilize this remaining reservoir sediment, and the overall sediment load in the restored river will return to pre-dam levels.

Washington↗