Geology topics

Timothy A. Gowan

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy A. Gowan.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

An approach to modeling abundance of marine wildlife over space and time using unstructured aerial surveys

Estimating spatial and temporal patterns in abundance is often a goal of ecological studies and can be useful for informing management decisions, such as determining the optimal placement of wildlife protection zones. However, estimating abundance can be difficult in practice, especially over large areas, because of imperfect detection, where individuals are present but not detected because of either availability or observer error. Several methods for estimating abundance that account for imperfect detection exist but can be logistically challenging to implement. We present a simpler approach to some of the more commonly used techniques for estimating the abundance of marine wildlife over space and time from unstructured aerial surveys. This approach combines a spatial model for count data with auxiliary information on detection probability obtained from small-scale or previous studies. We employ generalized linear models and generalized additive models with spatial habitat covariates to illustrate this approach using maximum-likelihood with free, open-source statistical software. This framework is intended to be accessible and flexible, requiring lower survey costs and less computation time than other alternatives for estimating abundance. Indeed, our simulation results show that this approach can reduce computation times, while appropriately characterizing uncertainty, compared to a Bayesian approach. We also present R code for our approach using an example of estimating Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) abundance in Indian River County in Florida, USA. This approach could be applied to other study systems and marine wildlife species using unstructured aerial surveys.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Unobserved individual and population level impacts of fishing gear entanglements on North Atlantic right whales

Fishing gear entanglements can compromise health and lower survival and reproductive output of wildlife, which can slow population growth or cause population declines. However, entanglements may go unobserved, making it difficult to quantify their effects on individuals' vital rates and a population's trajectory. Fishing gear entanglements are a leading cause of death for North Atlantic right whales, Eubalaena glacialis , an endangered species whose population has declined substantially over the last decade. Key sources of observation error have not been addressed when quantifying the effects of entanglement on this species. We formulated a hidden Markov model that integrated 28 years of photo identification records, visual health assessments, entanglement assessments, and hormone assays to estimate body condition dynamics, and entanglement, survival, and reproductive rates of female North Atlantic right whales. The model also accounted for observation errors, including entanglements and reproductive events that were unobserved. Whales entangled in fishing gear were drastically more likely to experience declines in body condition and had lower survival rates than whales that were not entangled. Additionally, only whales in good body condition became pregnant. Between 1994 and 2021 entanglements reduced the expected number of calves born by 12.9% (95% credible interval: 8.2%–19.6%) and the expected number of females alive at the end of 2021 by 18.5% (95% credible interval: 8.6%–29.4%). Fishing gear entanglements have reduced the North Atlantic right whale population's capacity to recover and have increased the importance of the health and survival of the remaining living whales. Therefore, reducing the risk of fishing gear entanglements is likely necessary for the population to recover.

Animal Conservation↗

USGS2023

2021–2022 Statewide Abundance Estimates for the Florida Manatee

Knowing the population size of Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is critical for conservation and management of this threatened species. Martin et al. (2015) and Hostetler et al. (2018) applied statistical models that incorporated multiple data sources to estimate the statewide abundance of manatees from aerial surveys f lown in 2011–2012 and 2015–2016. We conducted additional aerial surveys in 2021–2022 and applied similar models to provide an updated abundance estimate. This report serves as an update to Hostetler et al. (2018), with most of the text and methodology adapted from the previous report, and provides updated population estimates based on the newly available data. We estimate that the number of manatees in Florida in 2021–2022 was 9,790 (95% Bayesian credible interval 8,350–11,730), of which 4,630 (3,960–5,420) were on the west coast of Florida and 5,160 (3,940–6,980) were on the east coast. These estimates and the associated uncertainty, in addition to being of immediate value to wildlife managers, are essential new data for incorporation into integrated population models and population viability analyses. We also provide context for interpreting the new estimates and perspectives for future modeling improvements.

Florida↗

USGS2021

A hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival when age and size are uncertain

Estimates of age-specific survival probabilities are needed for age-structured population models and to inform conservation decisions. However, determining the age of individuals in wildlife populations is often problematic. We present a hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival from capture–recapture or capture–recapture–recovery data when age is unknown and indicators of age, such as size and growth layer counts, are imprecise. The model is evaluated through simulations, and its implementation is illustrated with maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches in commonly used software. The model is then applied to genetic capture–recapture data of Florida manatees to estimate age- and time-variant survival probabilities. The approach is broadly applicable to studies aiming to quantify age-specific effects of environmental change and management actions on population dynamics, including studies that rely on minimally invasive methods such as genetic and photo identification.

Ecology↗

USGS2019

Quantifying risk of whale–vessel collisions across space, time, and management policies

Transportation industries can negatively impact wildlife populations, including through increased risk of mortality. To mitigate this risk successfully, managers and conservationists must estimate risk across space, time, and alternative management policies. Evaluating this risk at fine spatial and temporal scales can be challenging, especially in systems where wildlife–vehicle collisions are rare or imperfectly detected. The sizes and behaviors of wildlife and vehicles influence collision risk, as well as how much they co‐occur in space and time. We applied a modeling framework based on encounter theory to quantify the risk of lethal collisions between endangered North Atlantic right whales and vessels. Using Automatic Identification System vessel traffic data and spatially explicit estimates of right whale abundance that account for imperfect detection, we modeled risk at fine spatiotemporal scales before and after implementation of a vessel speed rule in the southeastern United States. The expected seasonal mortality rates of right whales decreased by 22% on average after the speed rule was implemented, indicating that the rule is effective at reducing lethal collisions. The rule's effect on risk was greatest where right whales were abundant and vessel traffic was heavy, and its effect varied considerably across time and space. Our framework is spatiotemporally flexible, process‐oriented, computationally efficient and accounts for uncertainty, making it an ideal approach for evaluating many wildlife management policies, including those regarding collisions between wildlife and vehicles and cases in which wildlife may encounter other dangerous features such as wind farms, seismic surveys, or fishing gear.

Georgia, Florida↗

USGS2017

Models of invasion and establishment of African Mustard ( Brassica tournefortii )

Introduced exotic plants can drive ecosystem change. We studied invasion and establishment of Brassica tournefortii (African mustard), a noxious weed, in the Chemehuevi Valley, western Sonoran Desert, California. We used long-term data sets of photographs, transects for biomass of annual plants, and densities of African mustard collected at irregular intervals between 1979 and 2009. We suggest that African mustard may have been present in low numbers along the main route of travel, a highway, in the late 1970s; invaded the valley along a major axial valley ephemeral stream channel and the highway; and by 2009, colonized 22 km into the eastern part of the valley. We developed predictive models for invasibility and establishment of African mustard. Both during the initial invasion and after establishment, significant predictor variables of African mustard densities were surficial geology, proximity to the highway and axial valley ephemeral stream channel, and number of small ephemeral stream channels. The axial valley ephemeral stream channel was the most vulnerable of the variables to invasions. Overall, African mustard rapidly colonized and quickly became established in naturally disturbed areas, such as stream channels, where geological surfaces were young and soils were weakly developed. Older geological surfaces (e.g., desert pavements with soils 140,000 to 300,000 years old) were less vulnerable. Microhabitats also influenced densities of African mustard, with densities higher under shrubs than in the interspaces. As African mustard became established, the proportional biomass of native winter annual plants declined. Early control is important because African mustard can colonize and become well established across a valley in 20 yr.

California↗

USGS2015

A quantitative framework for estimating risk of collision between marine mammals and boats

Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife. We apply encounter rate theory to demonstrate how marine mammal-boat encounter rate can be used to predict the expected number of deaths associated with management scenarios. We illustrate our approach with management scenarios for two endangered species: the Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris and the North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis . We used a Monte Carlo simulation approach to demonstrate the uncertainty that is associated with our estimate of relative mortality. We show that encounter rate increased with vessel speed but that the expected number of encounters varies depending on the boating activities considered. For instance, in a scenario involving manatees and boating activities such as water skiing, the expected number of encounters in a given area (in a fixed time interval) increased with vessel speed. In another scenario in which a vessel made a transit of fixed length the expected number of encounters decreases slightly with boat speed. In both cases the expected number of encounters increased with distanced travelled by the boat. For whales, we found a slight reduction (~0.1%) in the number of encounters under a scenario where speed is unregulated; this reduction, however, is negligible, and overall expected relative mortality was ~30% lower under the scenario with speed regulation. The probability of avoidance by the animal or vessel was set to 0 because of lack of data, but we explored the importance of this parameter on the model predictions. In fact, expected relative mortality under speed regulations decreases even further when the probability of avoidance is a decreasing function of vessel speed. By applying encounter rate theory to the case of boat collisions with marine mammals, we gained new insights about encounter processes between wildlife and watercraft. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainty when estimating wildlife mortality. Finally, our findings are relevant to other systems and ecological processes involving the encounter between moving agents.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Bidirectional recovery patterns of Mojave Desert vegetation in an aqueduct pipeline corridor after 36 years: I. Perennial shrubs and grasses

We studied recovery of 21 perennial plant species along a severely disturbed aqueduct corridor in a Larrea tridentata - Ambrosia dumosa plant alliance in the Mojave Desert 36 years after construction. The 97-m wide corridor contained a central dirt road and buried aqueduct pipeline. We established transects at 0 m (road verge), 20 m and 40 m into the disturbance corridor, and at 100 m in undisturbed habitat (the control). Although total numbers of shrubs per transect did not vary significantly with distance from the verge, canopy cover of shrubs, species richness, and species diversity were higher in the control than at the verge and other distances. Canopy cover of common shrubs ( Ericameria nauseosa, Ambrosia salsola, A. dumosa, L. tridentata, Grayia spinosa ) and perennial grasses ( Elymus elymoides, Poa secunda ) also varied significantly by location. Discriminant analysis clearly separated the four distances based on plant composition. Patterns of recovery were bidirectional: secondary succession from the control into the disturbance corridor and inhibition from the verge in the direction of the control. Time estimated for species composition to resemble the control is dependent on location within the disturbance corridor and could be centuries at the road verge. Our findings have applications to other deserts.

California↗

USGS2015

Bidirectional recovery patterns of Mojave Desert vegetation in an aqueduct pipeline corridor after 36 years: II. Annual plants

We studied recovery of winter annual plants in a 97-m wide disturbed aqueduct corridor in the Mojave Desert 36 years after construction. We established plots at 0, 20, and 40 m from the road verge at the corridor center and at 100 m in undisturbed vegetation. We recorded 47 annual species, of which 41 were native and six were exotic. Exotic species composed from 64 to 91% of total biomass. We describe a bilateral process of recovery: from the road verge to the outward edge of the corridor and from undisturbed habitat into the corridor. Native annual plants significantly increased in richness from road verge to undisturbed vegetation, but not in density, biomass, or cover. In contrast, exotic annual plants increased in density, biomass, cover and richness with increasing distance from the road verge. The species of colonizing shrubs and type of canopy cover affected density, biomass, and richness of annuals. Species composition of native annuals differed significantly by distance, suggesting secondary succession. In general, native annuals were closer to achieving recovery on the 40-m plots than at the road verge. Recovery estimates were in centuries and dependent on location, canopy type, and whether considering all annuals or natives only.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2015

Mycoplasma agassizii in Morafka's desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Mexico

We conducted health evaluations of 69 wild and 22 captive Morafka's desert tortoises ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Mexico between 2005 and 2008. The wild tortoises were from 11 sites in the states of Sonora and Sinaloa, and the captive tortoises were from the state-managed Centro Ecológico de Sonora Zoo in Hermosillo and a private residence in the town of Alamos. We tested 88 tortoises for mycoplasmal upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for specific antibody and by culture and PCR for detection of Mycoplasma agassizii and Mycoplasma testudineum . Fifteen of 22 captive tortoises had one or more positive diagnostic test results for M. agassizii whereas no wild tortoises had positive tests. Tortoises with positive tests also had significantly more moderate and severe clinical signs of mycoplasmosis on beaks and nares compared to tortoises with negative tests. Captive tortoises also exhibited significantly more clinical signs of illness than did wild tortoises, including lethargy and moderate to severe ocular signs. The severity of trauma and diseases of the shell and integument did not differ significantly among tortoises by site; however, clinical signs of moderate to severe trauma and disease were more prevalent in older tortoises. Similar to research findings for other species in the genus Gopherus in the US, we found that URTD is an important disease in captive tortoises. If they escape or are released by intention or accident to the wild, captive tortoises are likely to pose risks to healthy, naïve wild populations.

Sinaloa, Sonora↗