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Geology topics

Thomas J. Stohlgren

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas J. Stohlgren.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2010

From points to forecasts: Predicting invasive species habitat suitability in the near term

We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km 2 , to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km 2 .

Diversity↗
USGS2010

Modeling the human invader in the United States

Modern biogeographers recognize that humans are seen as constituents of ecosystems, drivers of significant change, and perhaps, the most invasive species on earth. We found it instructive to model humans as invasive organisms with the same environmental factors. We present a preliminary model of the spread of modern humans in the conterminous United States between 1992 and 2001 based on a subset of National Land Cover Data (NLCD), a time series LANDSAT product. We relied on the commonly used Maxent model, a species-environmental matching model, to map urbanization. Results: Urban areas represented 5.1% of the lower 48 states in 2001, an increase of 7.5% (18,112 km 2 ) in the nine year period. At this rate, an area the size of Massachusetts is converted to urban land use every ten years. We used accepted models commonly used for mapping plant and animal distributions and found that climatic and environmental factors can strongly predict our spread (i.e., the conversion of forests, shrub/grass, and wetland areas into urban areas), with a 92.5% success rate (Area Under the Curve). Adding a roads layer in the model improved predictions to a 95.5% success rate. 8.8% of the 1-km 2 > cells in the conterminous U.S. now have a major road in them. In 2001, 0.8% of 1-km 2 > cells in the U.S. had an urbanness value of > 800, (>89% of a 1-km 2 > cell is urban), while we predict that 24.5% of 1-km 2 > cells in the conterminous U.S. will be > 800 eventually. Main conclusion: Humans have a highly predictable pattern of urbanization based on climatic and topographic variables. Conservation strategies may benefit from that predictability.

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗
USGS2007

The art and science of weed mapping

Land managers need cost-effective and informative tools for non-native plant species management. Many local, state, and federal agencies adopted mapping systems designed to collect comparable data for the early detection and monitoring of non-native species. We compared mapping information to statistically rigorous, plot-based methods to better understand the benefits and compatibility of the two techniques. Mapping non-native species locations provided a species list, associated species distributions, and infested area for subjectively selected survey sites. The value of this information may be compromised by crude estimates of cover and incomplete or biased estimations of species distributions. Incorporating plot-based assessments guided by a stratified-random sample design provided a less biased description of non-native species distributions and increased the comparability of data over time and across regions for the inventory, monitoring, and management of non-native and native plant species.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2007

Invasive species management and research using GIS

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km 2 ) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following declines in potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, and precipitation. County data on plants ( n = 3004 counties) and birds ( n =3074 counties), and drainage (6 HUC) data on fishes ( n = 328 drainages) showed that the densities of native and non-indigenous species were strongly positively correlated for plant species ( r = 0.86, P < 0.0001), bird species ( r = 0.93, P <0.0001), and fish species ( r = 0.41, P <0.0001). Multiple regression models showed that the densities of native plant and bird species could be strongly predicted (adj. R 2 = 0.66 in both models) at county levels, but fish species densities were less predictable at drainage levels (adj. R 2 = 0.31, P <0.0001). Similarly, non-indigenous plant and bird species densities were strongly predictable (adj. R 2 = 0.84 and 0.91 respectively), but non-indigenous fish species density was less predictable (adj. R 2 = 0.38). County level hotspots of native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes were located in low elevation areas close to the coast with high precipitation and productivity (vegetation carbon). We show that (1) native species richness can be moderately well predicted with abiotic factors; (2) human populations have tended to settle in areas rich in native species; and (3) the richness and density of non-indigenous plant, bird, and fish species can be accurately predicted from biotic and abiotic factors largely because they are positively correlated to native species densities. We conclude that while humans facilitate the initial establishment, invasions of non-indigenous species, the spread and subsequent distributions of non-indigenous species may be controlled largely by environmental factors.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2006

Show me the numbers: What data currently exist for non-native species in the USA?

Non-native species continue to be introduced to the United States from other countries via trade and transportation, creating a growing need for early detection and rapid response to new invaders. It is therefore increasingly important to synthesize existing data on non-native species abundance and distributions. However, no comprehensive analysis of existing data has been undertaken for non-native species, and there have been few efforts to improve collaboration. We therefore conducted a survey to determine what datasets currently exist for non-native species in the US from county, state, multi-state region, national, and global scales. We identified 319 datasets and collected metadata for 79% of these. Through this study, we provide a better understanding of extant non-native species datasets and identify data gaps (ie taxonomic, spatial, and temporal) to help guide future survey, research, and predictive modeling efforts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2005

Plant species invasions along the latitudinal gradient in the United States

It has been long established that the richness of vascular plant species and many animal taxa decreases with increasing latitude, a pattern that very generally follows declines in actual and potential evapotranspiration, solar radiation, temperature, and thus, total productivity. Using county-level data on vascular plants from the United States (3000 counties in the conterminous 48 states), we used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate competing models predicting native and nonnative plant species density (number of species per square kilometer in a county) from various combinations of biotic variables (e.g., native bird species density, vegetation carbon, normalized difference vegetation index), environmental/topographic variables (elevation, variation in elevation, the number of land cover classes in the county, radiation, mean precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration), and human variables (human population density, cropland, and percentage of disturbed lands in a county). We found no evidence of a latitudinal gradient for the density of native plant species and a significant, slightly positive latitudinal gradient for the density of nonnative plant species. We found stronger evidence of a significant, positive productivity gradient (vegetation carbon) for the density of native plant species and nonnative plant species. We found much stronger significant relationships when biotic, environmental/topographic, and human variables were used to predict native plant species density and nonnative plant species density. Biotic variables generally had far greater influence in multivariate models than human or environmental/topographic variables. Later, we found that the best, single, positive predictor of the density of nonnative plant species in a county was the density of native plant species in a county. While further study is needed, it may be that, while humans facilitate the initial establishment invasions of nonnative plant species, the spread and subsequent distributions of nonnative species are controlled largely by biotic and environmental factors.

Ecology↗
USGS2001

Interactions between fire and invasive plants in temperate grasslands of North America

A substantial number of invasive grasses, forbs and woody plants have invaded temperate grasslands in North America. Among the invading species are winter annuals, biennials, cool-season perennials, warm-season perennials, vines, shrubs, and trees. Many of these species have been deliberately introduced and widely planted; some are still used for range improvement, pastures, lawns, and as ornamentals, though many are listed as state or federal noxious weeds. Others have been greatly facilitated by widespread land disturbance. Historically, fire has been a major selective force in the evolution of temperate grasslands. Further, prescribed fire is commonly used as a method of ecological management for native grassland communities as well as in conjunction with restoration efforts. Within this context, it is important to understand how invasive species will interact with natural and prescribed fire regimes. In this paper, we consider what is known about how exotic species that invade temperate grasslands relate to fire. The primary issues addressed for each species are (1) Does fire appear to enhance colonization? (2) To what degree does fire affect the survival of plants? (3) Are plants that are burned able to regrow following fire and, if so, how rapidly can they recover? (4) How important is competition with native species to the response to fire? and (5) What effect does an invasive species have on the characteristics of the fire regime? For many species, results are preliminary, incomplete, or inconsistent among studies. For this reason, many of the conclusions drawn for individual species must be considered preliminary. Based on analyses of individual species, a conceptual framework is presented for considering how invasive plants may interact with fire when they invade an ecosystem. The major categories of influences are the native community, the fire regime, growth conditions for both invasive and native species, and influences that disturbances, human impacts, and landscape characteristics have had in the past and will have in the future. The examples considered in this paper provide support for a few, tentative generalizations. First, among our current worst invaders of temperate grasslands, adaptation to fire is quite variable. Some species are not well adapted to burning and can be easily eliminated; other species are better adapted but can still be eliminated if fire occurs during periods of particular vulnerability and/or at high frequency. There is a set of species that is extremely well adapted to fire and will not be eliminated through burning alone. Second, competitive interactions with native species play a crucial role in the success of nonnative invaders. In cases where differential burn responses between invasive and native species can be exploited, and adequate populations of native dominant species are present, fire can sometimes tip the competitive balance away from invasives. Third, there are a few invasive species that have exceptional attributes and for which there are no easy solutions. The ability of cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) to enhance fire, the ability of Chinese tallow ( Triadica sebifera ) to suppress fire, and the ability of leafy spurge ( Euphorbia esula ) to resprout from repeated injury make these species exceptional threats to native diversity. Finally, the available information for many invasive species is very incomplete, partic- ularly with regard to how fire affects competitive interactions with the native community. There is much more we need to know if we are to consistently predict how invasive species will respond to fire and how burning can best be used to manage for natural diversity.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

How grazing and soil quality affect native and exotic plant diversity in Rocky Mountain grasslands

We used multiscale plots to sample vascular plant diversity and soil characteristics in and adjacent to 26 long-term grazing exclosure sites in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota, USA. The exclosures were 7–60 yr old (31.2 ± 2.5 yr, mean ± 1 se ). Plots were also randomly placed in the broader landscape in open rangeland in the same vegetation type at each site to assess spatial variation in grazed landscapes. Consistent sampling in the nine National Parks, Wildlife Refuges, and other management units yielded data from 78 1000-m 2 plots and 780 1-m 2 subplots. We hypothesized that native species richness would be lower in the exclosures than in grazed sites, due to competitive exclusion in the absence of grazing. We also hypothesized that grazed sites would have higher native and exotic species richness compared to ungrazed areas, due to disturbance (i.e., the intermediate-disturbance hypothesis) and the conventional wisdom that grazing may accelerate weed invasion. Both hypotheses were soundly rejected. Although native species richness in 1-m 2 subplots was significantly higher ( P < 0.05) in grazed sites, we found nearly identical native or exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots in exclosures (31.5 ± 2.5 native and 3.1 ± 0.5 exotic species), adjacent grazed plots (32.6 ± 2.8 native and 3.2 ± 0.6 exotic species), and randomly selected grazed plots (31.6 ± 2.9 native and 3.2 ± 0.6 exotic species). We found no significant differences in species diversity (Hill’s diversity indices, N 1 and N 2), evenness (Hill’s ratio of evenness, E 5), cover of various life-forms (grasses, forbs, and shrubs), soil texture, or soil percentage of N and C between grazed and ungrazed sites at the 1000-m 2 plot scale. The species lists of the long-ungrazed and adjacent grazed plots overlapped just 57.9 ± 2.8%. This difference in species composition is commonly attributed solely to the difference in grazing regimes. However, the species lists between pairs of grazed plots (adjacent and distant 1000-m 2 plots) in the same vegetation type overlapped just 48.6 ± 3.6%, and the ungrazed plots and distant grazed plots overlapped 49.4 ± 3.6%. Differences in vegetation and soils between grazed and ungrazed sites were minimal in most cases, but soil characteristics and elevation were strongly correlated with native and exotic plant diversity in the study region. For the 78 1000-m 2 plots, 59.4% of the variance in total species richness was explained by percentage of silt (coefficient = 0.647, t = 5.107, P < 0.001), elevation (coefficient = 0.012, t = 5.084, P < 0.001), and total foliar cover (coefficient = 0.110, t = 2.104, P < 0.039). Only 12.8% of the variance in exotic species cover (log 10 cover) was explained by percentage of clay (coefficient = −0.011, t = −2.878, P < 0.005), native species richness (coefficient = −0.011, t = −2.156, P < 0.034), and log 10 N (coefficient = 2.827, t = 1.860, P < 0.067). Native species cover and exotic species richness and frequency were also significantly positively correlated with percentage of soil N at the 1000-m 2 plot scale. Our research led to five broad generalizations about current levels of grazing in these Rocky Mountain grasslands: (1) grazing probably has little effect on native species richness at landscape scales; (2) grazing probably has little effect on the accelerated spread of most exotic plant species at landscape scales; (3) grazing affects local plant species and life-form composition and cover, but spatial variation is considerable; (4) soil characteristics, climate, anddisturbances may have a greater effect on plant species diversity than do current levels of grazing; and (5) few plant species show consistent, directional responses to grazing or cessation of grazing.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1997

Multiscale sampling of plant diversity: Effects of minimum mapping unit size

Only a small portion of any landscape can be sampled for vascular plant diversity because of constraints of cost (salaries, travel time between sites, etc.). Often, the investigator decides to reduce the cost of creating a vegetation map by increasing the minimum mapping unit (MMU), and/or by reducing the number of vegetation classes to be considered. Questions arise about what information is sacrificed when map resolution is decreased. We compared plant diversity patterns from vegetation maps made with 100-ha, 50-ha, 2-ha, and 0.02-ha MMUs in a 754-ha study area in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, United States, using four 0.025-ha and 21 0.1-ha multiscale vegetation plots. We developed and tested species–log(area) curves, correcting the curves for within-vegetation type heterogeneity with Jaccard’s coefficients. Total species richness in the study area was estimated from vegetation maps at each resolution (MMU), based on the corrected species–area curves, total area of the vegetation type, and species overlap among vegetation types. With the 0.02-ha MMU, six vegetation types were recovered, resulting in an estimated 552 species (95% ci = 520–583 species) in the 754-ha study area (330 plant species were observed in the 25 plots). With the 2-ha MMU, five vegetation types were recognized, resulting in an estimated 473 species for the study area. With the 50-ha MMU, 439 plant species were estimated for the four vegetation types recognized in the study area. With the 100-ha MMU, only three vegetation types were recognized, resulting in an estimated 341 plant species for the study area. Locally rare species and keystone ecosystems (areas of high or unique plant diversity) were missed at the 2-ha, 50-ha, and 100-ha scales. To evaluate the effects of minimum mapping unit size requires: (1) an initial stratification of homogeneous, heterogeneous, and rare habitat types; and (2) an evaluation of within-type and between-type heterogeneity generated by environmental gradients and other factors. We suggest that at least some portions of vegetation maps created at a coarser level of resolution be validated at a higher level of resolution.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1995

Planning long-term vegetation studies at landscape scales

Long-term ecological research is receiving more attention now than ever before. Two recent books, Long-term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives , edited by Gene Likens (1989), and Long-term Ecological Research: An International Perspective , edited by Paul Risser (1991), prompt the question, “Why are these books so thin?” Except for data from paleoecological, retrospective studies (see below), there are exceptionally few long-term data sets in terrestrial ecology (Strayer et al. 1986; Tilman 1989; this volume). In a sample of 749 papers published in Ecology , Tilman (1989) found that only 1.7% of the studies lasted at least five field seasons. Only one chapter in each of the review books dealt specifically with expanding both the temporal and the spatial scales of ecological research (Berkowitz et al. 1989; Magnuson et al. 1991). Judging by the growing number of landscape-scale long-term studies, however, such as the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program (Callahan 1991), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP; Palmer et al. 1991), the U.S. Army’s Land Condition-Trend Analysis (LCTA) Program (Diersing et al. 1992), and various agencies’ global change research programs (CEES 1993), there is a growing interest to expand ecological research both temporally and spatially.

Book chapter↗
USGS1993

Intra-specific competition (crowding) of giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum )

Information on the size and location of 1916 giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum (Lindl.) Buchholz) in Muir Grove, Sequoia National Park, in the southern Sierra Nevada of California was used to assess intra-specific crowding. Study objectives were to: (1) determine which parameters associated with intra-specific competition (i.e. size and distance to nearest neighbor, crowding/root system area overlap, or number of neighbors) might be important in spatial pattern development, growth, and survivorship of established giant sequoias; (2) quantify the level of intra-specific crowding of different sized live sequoias based on a model of estimated overlapping root system areas (i.e. an index of relative crowding); (3) compare the level of intra-specific crowding of similarly sized live and dead giant sequoias (less than 30 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) at the time of inventory (1969). Mean distances to the nearest live giant sequoia neighbor were not significantly different (at α = 0.05) for live and dead sequoias in similar size classes. A zone of influence competition model (i.e. index of crowding) based on horizontal overlap of estimated root system areas was developed for 1753 live sequoias. The model, based only on the spatial arrangement of live sequoias, was then tested on dead sequoias of less than 30 cm dbh (n = 163 trees; also recorded in 1969). The dead sequoias had a significantly higher crowding index than 561 live trees of similar diameter. Results showed that dead sequoias of less than 16.6 cm dbh had a significantly greater mean number of live neighbors and mean crowding index than live sequoias of similar size. Intra-specific crowding may be an important mechanism in determining the spatial distribution of sequoias in old-growth forests.

California↗
USGS1993

Spatial patterns of giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) in two sequoia groves in Sequoia National Park, California

Although Muir Grove and Castle Creek Grove are similar in area, elevation, and number of giant sequoias, various spatial pattern analysis techniques showed that they had dissimilar spatial patterns for similar-sized trees. Two-dimensional and transect two-term local quadrat variance techniques detected general trends in the spatial patterns of different-sized trees, detected multiple-scale patterns within individual size classes, and provided information on the scale and intensity of patches of individual size classes of trees in Muir and Castle Creek groves. In Muir Grove, midsized sequoias (1.5 to 2.4 m DBH classes) had major pattern scales 350–450 m in diameter, whereas the same-sized trees in Castle Creek Grove had pattern scales >1000 m in diameter. Many size classes of trees had minor patches superimposed on larger scale patterns in both groves. There may be different recruitment patterns in core (i.e., central) areas compared with peripheral areas of sequoia groves; core areas of both groves had more small live sequoias and dead sequoias than peripheral areas of the groves. Higher densities of sequoias and, perhaps, more rapid turnover of individuals in core areas may indicate (i) differences in disturbance histories and favorability of microsites in the core and peripheral areas of groves; (ii) different responses to disturbance due to shifts in the species composition of the stand and thus, the relative influences of intra- to inter-specific competition; or (iii) slower growth or lower survivorship rates in marginal habitat (i.e., peripheral areas).

California↗
USGS1993

Bald eagle winter roost characteristics in Lava Beds National Monument, California

This study provided a survey of bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) winter roost habitat (in 4 km 2 of potential roost areas) in southern Lava Beds National Monument, California. A systematic-clustered sampling design ( n =381 plots) was used to compare forest stand characteristics in two primary roost areas (Caldwell Butte and Eagle Nest Butte) and two potential roost areas (Hidden Valley and Island Butte). A 100 percent inventory of roost trees in Caldwell Butte ( n =103 trees) and Eagle Nest Butte ( n =44 trees) showed they were spatially clumped and restricted to 12.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, of the study areas. Roost trees, primarily ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), averaged 81.1 ± 1.3 cm dbh (mean ± 1 S.E.) compared to non-roost trees (>35 cm dbh) that averaged 52.2 ± 1.0 cm dbh. Roost trees were generally taller and more open-structured than non-roost trees. All four study sites had adequate numbers of mid-sized trees (10 to 50 cm dbh) to replace the current stock of older, larger roost trees. However, seedling and small trees (<10 cm dbh) in the roost areas were spatially clumped and few, suggesting that maintaining a continuous population of roost trees may be a problem in the distant future. Long-term studies of changing winter roost habitat and eagle use are essential to protect the bald eagle in the northwestern US.

California↗