Geology topics

Theresa M. Crimmins

Publications and source records attributed to Theresa M. Crimmins.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project’s needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

International Journal of Biometeorology↗

USGS2021

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of the scale at which phenological observations are made, and the platform used for observation, is critical for the interpretation of phenological data and the application of these data to both research questions and land management objectives. However, there is currently little capacity to facilitate access, integration and analysis of cross-scale, multi-platform phenological data. This paper reports on a new suite of software and analysis tools – the “Pheno-Synthesis Software Suite,” or PS3 – to facilitate integration and analysis of phenological and ancillary data, enabling investigation and interpretation of phenological processes at scales ranging from organisms to landscapes and from days to decades. We use PS3 to investigate phenological processes in a semi-aride, mixed shrub-grass ecosystem, and find that the apparent importance of seasonal precipitation to vegetation activity (i.e., “greenness”) is affected by the scale and platform of observation. We end by describing potential applications of PS3 to phenological modeling and forecasting, understanding patterns and drivers of phenological activity in real-world ecosystems, and supporting agricultural and natural resource management and decision-making.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2020

Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest management

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’ map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at management-relevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect’s target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.

Annals of the Entomological Society of America↗

USGS2019

2018 USA National Phenology Annual Report

This report provides a very high-level summary of some of the USA-NPN’s accomplishments over the past year. The purpose is to share with USA-NPN funders, partners, and the general public the value of the organization.

Report↗

USGS2019

Pheno forecasts predict seasonal activity of pest and invasive species to support decision making

The USA National Phenology Network’s Pheno Forecast maps indicate the status of insect pest or invasive plant life cycle stages in real time across the contiguous United States. This information can guide when to monitor or to undertake management activities. These maps, available at 2.5 km spatial resolution, are updated daily and are available six days into the future. Pheno Forecast maps are now available for 12 insect pest species and for one invasive grass species.

Report↗

USGS2018

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera ) and Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a “warming hole” in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges–but not the non-breeding ranges–of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V ) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

National Park Service and the USA National Phenology Network

Understanding the seasonal cycles of plants and animals, how they are changing, and how they can inform management, operations, and interpretation is critical to the mission of the National Park Service (NPS): to preserve unimpaired the natural and cultural resources and values of the National Park System for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of this and future generations.

Report↗

USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network supports decision making

The USA National Phenology Network is a federally-funded, nationalscale science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals, and landscapes respond to environmental variation and change.

Report↗

USGS2018

Phenology forecasts predict pest seasonal activity to support decision making

The USA National Phenology Network (USANPN) produces and distributes daily national phenology maps – or Pheno Forecasts – indicating when key pest species may be most susceptible to management as part of a growing suite of phenology map products. The USA-NPN’s Pheno Forecast maps show when key pest species, including emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), apple maggot (Rhagoletis pomonella), lilac borer (Podosesia syringae), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), and winter moth (Operophtera brumata), are most susceptible to management treatments (Figures 1, 2, 3). These maps, available at 2.5 km spatial resolution, are updated daily and are available six days into the future.

USA-NPN Information Sheet↗

USGS2017

USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions

In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth. We explore the potential for developing models of phenophase transitions suitable for use at the continental scale, which could be applied to a wide range of resource management contexts. We constructed predictive models of the onset of breaking leaf buds, leaves, open flowers, and ripe fruits – phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications – for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation - thermal time models with a fixed start date. Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Of these, fifteen models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error and were suitable for use across the majority of the species’ geographic ranges. These findings indicate that the USA-NPN dataset holds promise for further and more refined modeling efforts. Further, the candidate models that emerged could be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing of such transitions to directly support natural resource management.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

Community for Data Integration 2016 annual report

The Community for Data Integration (CDI) represents a dynamic community of practice focused on advancing science data and information management and integration capabilities across the U.S. Geological Survey and the CDI community. This annual report describes the various presentations, activities, and outcomes of the CDI monthly forums, working groups, virtual training series, and other CDI-sponsored events in fiscal year 2016. The report also describes the objectives and accomplishments of the 13 CDI-funded projects in fiscal year 2016.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

USA National Phenology Network gridded products documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network ( USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to facilitate informed ecosystem stewardship and management by providing phenological information freely and openly. One way the USA-NPN is endeavoring to accomplish these goals is by providing data and data products in a wide range of formats, including gridded real-time, short-term forecasted, and historical maps of phenological events, patterns and trends. This document describes the suite of gridded phenologically relevant data products produced and provided by the USA National Phenology Network, which can be accessed at www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps and also through web services at geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/wms?request=GetCapabilities .

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events – deﬁned points in the life cycle of a plant or animal – have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reﬂecting ﬂexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism – the tendency for closely related spe-cies to share similar ecological and biological attributes – in phenological traits across ﬂowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of ﬁrst ﬂower and ﬁrst leaf, encompassing ~4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the setof included species, ﬁrst, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantiﬁed phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to ﬂower and leaf at similar times. By contrastingmean ﬂowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of yearthat is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our ﬁndings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses. Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conser ved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species’ shared evolutionary histories.

Journal of Ecology↗