Tammy J. Newcomb | USGS Science

USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

USGS1994

Relations between habitat variability and population dynamics of bass in the Huron River, Michigan

One of the assumption of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) is that the dynamics of fish populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability. Because this assumption has not been successfully tested in coolwater streams, questions arise regarding the validity of the methodology in such streams. The purpose of our study was to determine whether relations existed between habitat availability and population dynamics of smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) and rock bass ( Ambloplites rupestris ) in a 16-km reach of the Huron River in southeastern Michigan. Both species exhibited strong to moderate carryover of year classes from age 0 through age 2, indicating that adult populations were related to factors affecting recruitment. Year-class strength and subsequent numbers of yearling bass were related to the availability of young-of-year habitat during the first growing season for a cohort. Number of age-0, age-1, and adult smallmouth bass were related to the average length at age 0 for the cohort. Length at age 0 was associated with young-of-year habitat and thermal regime during the first growing season. Rock bass populations exhibited similar associations among age classes and habitat variables. Compared to smallmouth bass, the number of age-2 rock bass was associated more closely with their length at age 0 than with year-class strength. Length at age 0 and year-class strength of rock bass were associated with the same habitat variables as those related to age-0 smallmouth bass. We hypothesize that an energetic mechanism linked thermal regime to length at age 0 and that increased growth resulted in higher survival rates from age 0 to age 1. We also postulate that young-of-year habitat provided protection from predators, higher production of food resources, and increased foraging efficiency. We conclude that the IFIM is a valid methodology for instream flow investigations of coolwater streams. The results for our study support the contention that the dynamics of bass populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability in coolwater streams. Our study also revealed several implications related to the operational application of the IFIM in coolwater streams: 1. Greater emphasis should be placed on the alleviation of habitat impacts to early life history phases of bass. 2. Effects of the thermal regime are important in some coolwater streams even if temperatures remain within nonlethal limits. Degree-day analyses should be routinely included in study plans for applications of the IFIM in coolwater streams. 3. The smallest amount of habitat occurring within or across years is not necessarily the most significant event affecting population dynamics. The timing of extreme events can be as important as their magnitude. 4. Population-related habitat limitations were associated with high flows more often than with low flows (although both occurred). Negotiations that focus only on minimum flows may preclude viable water management options and ignore significant biological events. This finding is particularly relevant to negotiations involving hydrospeaking operations. 5. IFIM users are advised to consider the use of binary criteria in place of conventional suitability index curves in microhabitat simulations. Criteria defining the optimal ranges of variables are preferable to broader rangers, and criteria that simply define suitable conditions should be avoided entirely.

Michigan↗