Geology topics

Taiyi Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Taiyi Wang.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2023

Understanding the drivers of volcano deformation through geodetic model verification and validation

Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2022

Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?

In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ~1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11 − 12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of GPS data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40 to 88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2020

Caldera collapse geometry revealed by near‐field GPS displacements at Kilauea Volcano in 2018

We employ near‐field GPS data to determine the subsurface geometry of a collapsing caldera during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. Collapse occurred in 62 discrete events, with “inflationary” deformation external to the collapse, similar to previous basaltic collapses. We take advantage of GPS data from the collapsing block and independent constraints on the magma chamber geometry from inversion of deflation prior to collapse onset. This provides an unparalleled opportunity to constrain the collapse geometry. Employing an axisymmetric finite element model, the co‐collapse displacements are best explained by piston‐like subsidence along a high angle ( ∼ 85°) normal ring fault that may steepen to vertical with depth. Reservoir magma has compressibility of 2→15 × 10 −10 Pa −1 , indicating bubble volume fractions from 1% to 7% (lower if fault steepens with depth). Magma pressure increases during collapses are 1 to 3 MPa, depending on compressibility. Depressurization of a triaxial point source in a homogeneous half‐space fits the data well but provides a biased representation of the source depth and process.

Hawaii↗