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T. E. Fumal

Publications and source records attributed to T. E. Fumal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2008

Paleoseismic Investigations of the Walnut Site on the San Jacinto Fault

The Walnut paleoseismic site is located along the northern San Jacinto fault about 3 km southeast of the San Bernardino, California city center (Figures 1, 2). More than 340 meters of trenches were excavated across the fault zone at this site as part of an Alquist-Priolo fault study (Figure 3). We photographed and logged the SE wall and most of the NE wall of trench 1, both walls of trenches 2 and 7, the NW walls of trenches 3 and 4 and the SE wall of trench 6. After carefully cleaning the trench walls we put up a 1m by 0.5m string and nail grid. For trenches 1, 2, 6, and 7, we photographed each 1m by 0.5m panel individually and photologged on these unrectified photos. These large-scale photos were later rectified to remove the distortion due to irregularities in the trench walls and slight distortion introduced by the camera lens. Field linework was then transferred to the rectified photomosaics. We also took a set of overview photographs for each trench taken from the top of the trench towards the opposite wall. We spliced together these overview photos to make photomosaics of all of the trenches. Because the photos were taken at a downward angle, there is significant distortion. Some of this distortion has been corrected: an attempt was made to keep horizontal grid lines horizontal and there has been some horizontal scaling to align vertical lines between benches. Although the string and nail grid spacing is 1 meter by 0.5 meter, because of the distortion in the photos and subsequent adjustments, the scale is variable along the benches, from bench to bench and from trench to trench for these overview mosaics. This report serves principally as a repository for the overview photomosaics. Sheet 1 shows the overview mosaics for both walls of trenches 1 and 2 along with some linework including most of the fault traces, a prominent unconformity within the fluvial deposits and the larger bodies of liquefied sand. Sheet 2 shows the overview mosaics for the SE wall of trench 3 and the NW wall of trench 4 along with photomosaics of both walls of trench 7 and the SE wall of trench 6 that were complied from the rectified, large scale photos. No linework has been portrayed on these photomosaics. Sheet 3 shows the overview mosaics of both walls of trench 1 with the locations of detrital charcoal samples that were collected. A later version of this report will contain photomosaics for trenches 1 and 2 compiled from the individual, fully rectified photos covering each 1m by 0.5m area with detailed linework superimposed. The trenches exposed a main, Holocene-active, fault zone about 5-12 m wide which juxtaposes Late Pleistocene (?) fluvial sand and gravel southwest of the fault against organic-rich, Holocene fine sand, silt and clay apparently deposited in a marsh. Most of the faults in the main zone appear to rupture to the ground surface making it impossible to resolve individual prehistoric earthquakes along this zone. However, the main fault zone is associated with a slight upwarp and growth strata associated with this folding has recorded evidence for at least 6 late-Holocene earthquakes. Deformation due to liquefaction is further evidence of large earthquakes at these horizons. The fine-grained Holocene deposits contain abundant detrital charcoal. We have so far dated 36 samples from 20 stratigraphic layers. We used 27 of these dates in an Oxcal chronological model in order to constrain the ages of the six earthquakes. Too few samples have so far been dated from the uppermost horizons so the ages of the two youngest earthquakes recorded at the site are poorly constrained. However, it appears that the youngest sediment at the site was deposited about 2000 years ago and the thick surface soil indicate that the two youngest earthquake recorded at the site may be about this old. The radiocarbon dates provide good constraints on the ages of the four older earthquakes (Table 1). The ages of these four earthquakes suggest an aver

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquake horizons

We present evidence of 11–14 earthquakes that occurred between 3000 and 1500 b.c. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. Earthquake evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called “event indicators.” Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming earthquake and that the earthquake horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs >1 ). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as “probable” to “very likely” earthquakes; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as “possible” earthquakes. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an earthquake horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs >1 correlate best with the interpreted earthquake quality. Earthquake age distributions are determined from radiocarbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average recurrence interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality earthquakes is 111 (93–131) years and individual intervals are ±50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14–15 earthquake record between a.d. 500 and present, we find no evidence to suggest significant variations in the average recurrence rate at Wrightwood during the past 5000 years.

California↗
USGS2002

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

California↗
USGS2002

Evidence for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site: A.D. 500 to present

We present structural and stratigraphic evidence from a paleoseismic site near Wrightwood, California, for 14 large earthquakes that occurred on the southern San Andreas fault during the past 1500 years. In a network of 38 trenches and creek-bank exposures, we have exposed a composite section of interbedded debris flow deposits and thin peat layers more than 24 m thick; fluvial deposits occur along the northern margin of the site. The site is a 150-m-wide zone of deformation bounded on the surface by a main fault zone along the northwest margin and a secondary fault zone to the southwest. Evidence for most of the 14 earthquakes occurs along structures within both zones. We identify paleoearthquake horizons using in-filled fissures, scarps, multiple rupture terminations, and widespread folding and tilting of beds. Ages of stratigraphic units and earthquakes are constrained by historic data and 72 14 C ages, mostly from samples of peat and some from plant fibers, wood, pine cones, and charcoal. Comparison of the long, well-resolved paleoseimic record at Wrightwood with records at other sites along the fault indicates that rupture lengths of past earthquakes were at least 100 km long. Paleoseismic records at sites in the Coachella Valley suggest that each of the past five large earthquakes recorded there ruptured the fault at least as far northwest as Wrightwood. Comparisons with event chronologies at Pallett Creek and sites to the northwest suggests that approximately the same part of the fault that ruptured in 1857 may also have failed in the early to mid-sixteenth century and several other times during the past 1200 years. Records at Pallett Creek and Pitman Canyon suggest that, in addition to the 14 earthquakes we document, one and possibly two other large earthquakes ruptured the part of the fault including Wrightwood since about a.d. 500. These observations and elapsed times that are significantly longer than mean recurrence intervals at Wrightwood and sites to the southeast suggest that at least the southermost 200 km of the San Andreas fault is near failure.

California↗
USGS2002

Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radiocarbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770–890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840–1150), A.D. 1231 (1170–1290), A.D. 1502 (1450–1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520–1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ± 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams ( 1990 ). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ± 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ± 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ± 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ± 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ± 2 mm/yr and about 23–35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗
USGS2002

Structure and earthquake offsets on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site

Thirty-eight trenches and natural exposures across the San Andreas fault zone, four km northwest of Wrightwood, California, reveal the structure and stratigraphy of this paleoseismic site. A 25-m-thick stratigraphic section of late Holocene peat, debris flows, and fluvial sediments have accumulated syntectonically and are deformed in a complicated flower, or flake, structure within the fault zone. Whereas slip is everywhere parallel to the trend of the San Andreas fault, layering within the fan-shaped section guides the surface faulting, and transtensive portions of the structure are connected to transpressive portions by bedding-parallel detachment faults. The structure has grown through time, widely distributing the evidence for individual earthquakes. The broad zone of deformation and rapid sedimentation permit the characterization of an unusually large number of prehistoric earthquakes. The presence of at least four geomorphically similar sites within 10 km along the fault zone suggests that this kind of site is common and other sites should be exploited.

California↗
USGS2002

Geometry, slip distribution, and kinematics of surface rupture on the Sakarya fault segment during the 17 August 1999 İzmit, Turkey, earthquake

The M w 7.4 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake ruptured five major fault segments of the dextral North Anatolian Fault Zone. The 26-km-long, N86°W-trending Sakarya fault segment (SFS) extends from the Sapanca releasing step-over in the west to near the town of Akyazi in the east. The SFS emerges from Lake Sapanca as two distinct fault traces that rejoin to traverse the Adapazari Plain to Akyazi. Offsets were measured across 88 cultural and natural features that cross the fault, such as roads, cornfield rows, rows of trees, walls, rails, field margins, ditches, vehicle ruts, a dike, and ground cracks. The maximum displacement observed for the İzmit earthquake (∼5.1 m) was encountered on this segment. Dextral displacement for the SFS rises from less than 1 m at Lake Sapanca to greater than 5 m near Arifiye, only 3 km away. Average slip decreases uniformly to the east from Arifiye until the fault steps left from Sagir to Kazanci to the N75°W, 6-km-long Akyazi strand, where slip drops to less than 1 m. The Akyazi strand passes eastward into the Akyazi Bend, which consists of a high-angle bend (18°-29°) between the Sakarya and Karadere fault segments, a 6-km gap in surface rupture, and high aftershock energy release. Complex structural geometries exist between the İzmit, Düzce, and 1967 Mudurnu fault segments that have arrested surface ruptures on timescales ranging from 30 sec to 88 days to 32 yr. The largest of these step-overs may have acted as a rupture segmentation boundary in previous earthquake cycles.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1993

A 100-year average recurrence interval for the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood, California

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.

California↗