Geology topics

Steven G. Wesnousky

Publications and source records attributed to Steven G. Wesnousky.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Rupture passing probabilities at fault bends and steps, with application to rupture length probabilities for earthquake early warning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can quickly identify the beginning of a significant earthquake rupture, but the first seconds of seismic data have not been found to predict the final rupture length. We present two approaches for estimating probabilities of rupture length given the rupture initiation from an EEW system. In the first approach, bends and steps on the fault are interpreted as physical mechanisms for rupture arrest. Arrest probability relations are developed from empirical observations and depend on bend angle and step size. Probability of arrest compounds serially with increasing rupture length as bends or steps are encountered. In the second approach, time‐independent rates among ruptures from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), are interpreted to apply to the time‐dependent condition in which rupture grows from a known starting point. Length probabilities from a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation provide a reference of comparison. We illustrate the new approach using the discretized fault model for California developed for UCERF3. For the case of rupture initiating on the southeast end of the San Andreas fault we find the geometric complexity of the Mill Creek section impedes most ruptures, and only ∼5% are predicted to reach to San Bernardino on the eastern edge of the greater Los Angeles region. Conditional probabilities of length can be precompiled in this manner for any initiation point on the fault system and thus are of potential value in seismic hazard and EEW applications.

California↗

USGS2021

Surface Rupture Map of the 2020 M 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake, Esmeralda and Mineral counties, Nevada

The 15 May 2020, M6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake was the largest earthquake in Nevada in over 66 years and occurred in a sparsely populated area of western Nevada about 74 km southeast of the town of Hawthorne. The earthquake produced surface rupture distributed across a 28-km-long zone along the eastward projection of the Candelaria fault in the Mina deflection of the central Walker Lane. Post-event field surveys mapped surface ruptures and measured displacements, which reached up to ~20 cm of oblique slip. Additional detailed mapping was completed using centimeter-resolution orthomosaics generated from Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle surveys. The rupture observations and displacement data are compiled into this 1:14,000-scale map, data tables, and accompanying digital dataset. The rupture consists of two distinct deformational domains roughly separated by U.S. Highway 95: ENE-trending ruptures with normal and left-oblique displacements in the western domain, and N- to NNE-trending ruptures with normal and right-oblique displacement in the eastern domain. The complex pattern of surface rupture is consistent with the projections of mapped bedrock and Quaternary faults in the area and illustrates the kinematics of slip partitioning at the junction of variably oriented structures in the shallow subsurface.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Characterizing strain between rigid crustal blocks in the southern Cascadia forearc: Quaternary faults and folds of the northern Sacramento Valley, California

Topographic profiles across late Quaternary surfaces in the northern Sacramento Valley (California, USA) show offset and progressive folding on series of active east- and northeast—trending faults and folds. Optically stimulated luminescence ages on deposits draping a warped late Pleistocene river terrace yielded differential incision rates along the Sacramento River and indicate tectonic uplift equal to 0.2 ± 0.1 and 0.6 ± 0.2 mm/yr above the anticline of the Inks Creek fold system and Red Bluff fault, respectively. Uplift rates correspond to a total of 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr of north-directed crustal shortening, accounting for all of the geodetically observed contractional strain in the northern Sacramento Valley, but only part of the far-field contraction between the Sierra Nevada–Great Valley and Oregon Coast blocks. These structures define the southern limit of the transpressional transition between the two blocks.

California↗

USGS2016

Terrestrial cosmogenic surface exposure dating of glacial and associated landforms in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range of central Nevada and along the northeastern flank of the Sierra Nevada

Deposits near Lamoille in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range of central Nevada and at Woodfords on the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada each record two distinct glacial advances. We compare independent assessments of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) surface exposure ages for glacial deposits that we have determined to those obtained by others at the two sites. At each site, TCN ages of boulders on moraines of the younger advance are between 15 and 30 ka and may be associated with marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 2. At Woodfords, TCN ages of boulders on the moraine of the older advance are younger than ~ 60 ka and possibly formed during MIS 4, whereas boulders on the correlative outwash surface show ages approaching 140 ka (~ MIS 6). The TCN ages of boulders on older glacial moraine at Woodfords thus appear to severely underestimate the true age of the glacial advance responsible for the deposit. The same is possibly true at Lamoille where clasts sampled from the moraine of the oldest advance have ages ranging between 20 and 40 ka with a single outlier age of ~ 80 ka. The underestimations are attributed to the degradation and denudation of older moraine crests. Noting that boulder ages on the older advances at each site overlap significantly with MIS 2. We speculate that erosion of the older moraines has been episodic, with a pulse of denudation accompanying the inception of MIS 2 glaciation.

Nevada↗

USGS2013

Low footwall accelerations and variable surface rupture behavior on the Fort Sage Mountains fault, northeast California

The Fort Sage Mountains fault zone is a normal fault in the Walker Lane of the western Basin and Range that produced a small surface rupture (<20 cm) during an M L 5.6 earthquake in 1950. We investigate the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault and find evidence for two paleoearthquakes with surface displacements much larger than those observed in 1950. Rupture of the Fort Sage fault ∼5.6 ka resulted in surface displacements of at least 0.8–1.5 m, implying earthquake moment magnitudes (M w ) of 6.7–7.1. An older rupture at ∼20.5 ka displaced the ground at least 1.5 m, implying an earthquake of M w 6.8–7.1. A field of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) is located less than 1 km from the surface‐rupture trace of this Holocene‐active normal fault. Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) predict peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2–0.3g for the 1950 rupture and 0.3–0.5g for the ∼5.6 ka paleoearthquake one kilometer from the fault‐surface trace, yet field tests indicate that the Fort Sage PBRs will be toppled by PGAs between 0.1–0.3g. We discuss the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault in the context of the nearby PBRs, GMPEs, and probabilistic seismic hazard maps for extensional regimes. If the Fort Sage PBRs are older than the mid‐Holocene rupture on the Fort Sage fault zone, this implies that current GMPEs may overestimate near‐fault footwall ground motions at this site.

California↗