Geology topics

Steve P. Schilling

Publications and source records attributed to Steve P. Schilling.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano↗

USGS2017

Emplacement of a silicic lava dome through a crater glacier: Mount St Helens, 2004-06

The process of lava-dome emplacement through a glacier was observed for the first time after Mount St Helens reawakened in September 2004. The glacier that had grown in the crater since the cataclysmic 1980 eruption was split in two by the new lava dome. The two parts of the glacier were successively squeezed against the crater wall. Photography, photogrammetry and geodetic measurements document glacier deformation of an extreme variety, with strain rates of extraordinary magnitude as compared to normal alpine glaciers. Unlike normal temperate glaciers, the crater glacier shows no evidence of either speed-up at the beginning of the ablation season or diurnal speed fluctuations during the ablation season. Thus there is evidently no slip of the glacier over its bed. The most reasonable explanation for this anomaly is that meltwater penetrating the glacier is captured by a thick layer of coarse rubble at the bed and then enters the volcano's groundwater system rather than flowing through a drainage network along the bed.

Washington↗

USGS2015

The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington: Epilogue

The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens ended during winter 2007–2008 at a time when field observations were hampered by persistent bad weather. As a result, recognizing the end of the eruption was challenging—but important for scientists trying to understand how and why long-lived eruptions end and for public officials and land managers responsible for hazards mitigation and access restrictions. In hindsight, the end of the eruption was presaged by a slight increase in seismicity in December 2007 that culminated on January 12–13, 2008, with a burst of more than 500 events, most of which occurred in association with several tremor-like signals and a spasmodic burst of long-period earthquakes. At about the same time, a series of regular, localized, small-amplitude tilt events—thousands of which had been recorded during earlier phases of the eruption—came to an end. Thereafter, seismicity declined to 10–20 events per day until January 27–28, when a spasmodic burst of about 50 volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred over a span of 3 h. This was followed by a brief return of repetitive “drumbeat” earthquakes that characterized much of the eruption. By January 31, however, seismicity had declined to 1–2 earthquakes per day, a rate similar to pre-eruption levels. We attribute the tilt and seismic observations to convulsive stagnation of a semisolid magma plug in the upper part of the conduit. The upward movement of the plug ceased when the excess driving pressure, which had gradually decreased throughout the eruption as a result of reservoir deflation and increasing overburden from the growing dome, was overcome by increasing friction as a result of cooling and crystallization of the plug.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Landslide mobility and hazards: implications of the 2014 Oso disaster

Landslides reflect landscape instability that evolves over meteorological and geological timescales, and they also pose threats to people, property, and the environment. The severity of these threats depends largely on landslide speed and travel distance, which are collectively described as landslide “mobility”. To investigate causes and effects of mobility, we focus on a disastrous landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014 near Oso, Washington, USA, following a long period of abnormally wet weather. The landslide's impacts were severe because its mobility exceeded that of prior historical landslides at the site, and also exceeded that of comparable landslides elsewhere. The &sim;8×10 6 m 3 landslide originated on a gently sloping (<20°) riverside bluff only 180 m high, yet it traveled across the entire &sim;1 km breadth of the adjacent floodplain and spread laterally a similar distance. Seismological evidence indicates that high-speed, flowing motion of the landslide began after about 50 s of preliminary slope movement, and observational evidence supports the hypothesis that the high mobility of the landslide resulted from liquefaction of water-saturated sediment at its base. Numerical simulation of the event using a newly developed model indicates that liquefaction and high mobility can be attributed to compression- and/or shear-induced sediment contraction that was strongly dependent on initial conditions. An alternative numerical simulation indicates that the landslide would have been far less mobile if its initial porosity and water content had been only slightly lower. Sensitive dependence of landslide mobility on initial conditions has broad implications for assessment of landslide hazards.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Laharz_py: GIS tools for automated mapping of lahar inundation hazard zones

Laharz_py is written in the Python programming language as a suite of tools for use in ArcMap Geographic Information System (GIS). Primarily, Laharz_py is a computational model that uses statistical descriptions of areas inundated by past mass-flow events to forecast areas likely to be inundated by hypothetical future events. The forecasts use physically motivated and statistically calibrated power-law equations that each has a form A = cV 2/3 , relating mass-flow volume (V) to planimetric or cross-sectional areas (A) inundated by an average flow as it descends a given drainage. Calibration of the equations utilizes logarithmic transformation and linear regression to determine the best-fit values of c. The software uses values of V, an algorithm for idenitifying mass-flow source locations, and digital elevation models of topography to portray forecast hazard zones for lahars, debris flows, or rock avalanches on maps. Laharz_py offers two methods to construct areas of potential inundation for lahars: (1) Selection of a range of plausible V values results in a set of nested hazard zones showing areas likely to be inundated by a range of hypothetical flows; and (2) The user selects a single volume and a confidence interval for the prediction. In either case, Laharz_py calculates the mean expected A and B value from each user-selected value of V. However, for the second case, a single value of V yields two additional results representing the upper and lower values of the confidence interval of prediction. Calculation of these two bounding predictions require the statistically calibrated prediction equations, a user-specified level of confidence, and t-distribution statistics to calculate the standard error of regression, standard error of the mean, and standard error of prediction. The portrayal of results from these two methods on maps compares the range of inundation areas due to prediction uncertainties with uncertainties in selection of V values. The Open-File Report document contains an explanation of how to install and use the software. The Laharz_py software includes an example data set for Mount Rainier, Washington. The second part of the documentation describes how to use all of the Laharz_py tools in an example dataset at Mount Rainier, Washington.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Rapid, low-cost photogrammetry to monitor volcanic eruptions: An example from Mount St. Helens, Washington, USA

We describe a low-cost application of digital photogrammetry using commercially available photogrammetric software and oblique photographs taken with an off-the-shelf digital camera to create sequential digital elevation models (DEMs) of a lava dome that grew during the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) volcano. Renewed activity at MSH provided an opportunity to devise and test this method, because it could be validated against other observations of this well-monitored volcano. The datasets consist of oblique aerial photographs (snapshots) taken from a helicopter using a digital single-lens reflex camera. Twelve sets of overlapping digital images of the dome taken during 2004–2007 were used to produce DEMs and to calculate lava dome volumes and extrusion rates. Analyses of the digital images were carried out using photogrammetric software to produce three-dimensional coordinates of points identified in multiple photos. The evolving morphology of the dome was modeled by comparing successive DEMs. Results were validated by comparison to volume measurements derived from traditional vertical photogrammetric surveys by the US Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory. Our technique was significantly less expensive and required less time than traditional vertical photogrammetric techniques; yet, it consistently yielded volume estimates within 5% of the traditional method. This technique provides an inexpensive, rapid assessment tool for tracking lava dome growth or other topographic changes at restless volcanoes.

Washington↗

USGS2009

Monitoring lava-dome growth during the 2004–2008 Mount St. Helens, Washington, eruption using oblique terrestrial photography

We present an analysis of lava dome growth during the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens using oblique terrestrial images from a network of remotely placed cameras. This underutilized monitoring tool augmented more traditional monitoring techniques, and was used to provide a robust assessment of the nature, pace, and state of the eruption and to quantify the kinematics of dome growth. Eruption monitoring using terrestrial photography began with a single camera deployed at the mouth of the volcano's crater during the first year of activity. Analysis of those images indicates that the average lineal extrusion rate decayed approximately logarithmically from about 8 m/d to about 2 m/d (± 2 m/d) from November 2004 through December 2005, and suggests that the extrusion rate fluctuated on time scales of days to weeks. From May 2006 through September 2007, imagery from multiple cameras deployed around the volcano allowed determination of 3-dimensional motion across the dome complex. Analysis of the multi-camera imagery shows spatially differential, but remarkably steady to gradually slowing, motion, from about 1–2 m/d from May through October 2006, to about 0.2–1.0 m/d from May through September 2007. In contrast to the fluctuations in lineal extrusion rate documented during the first year of eruption, dome motion from May 2006 through September 2007 was monotonic (± 0.10 m/d) to gradually slowing on time scales of weeks to months. The ability to measure spatial and temporal rates of motion of the effusing lava dome from oblique terrestrial photographs provided a significant, and sometimes the sole, means of identifying and quantifying dome growth during the eruption, and it demonstrates the utility of using frequent, long-term terrestrial photography to monitor and study volcanic eruptions.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Digital elevation models of the Pre-Eruption 2000 Crater and 2004-07 Dome-Building Eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington, USA

Presented in this report are 27 digital elevation model (DEM) datasets for the crater area of Mount St. Helens. These datasets include pre-eruption baseline data collected in 2000, incremental model subsets collected during the 2004–07 dome building eruption, and associated shaded-relief image datasets. Each dataset was collected photogrammetrically with digital softcopy methods employing a combination of manual collection and iterative compilation of x,y,z coordinate triplets utilizing autocorrelation techniques. DEM data points collected using autocorrelation methods were rigorously edited in stereo and manually corrected to ensure conformity with the ground surface. Data were first collected as a triangulated irregular network (TIN) then interpolated to a grid format. DEM data are based on aerotriangulated photogrammetric solutions for aerial photograph strips flown at a nominal scale of 1:12,000 using a combination of surveyed ground control and photograph-identified control points. The 2000 DEM is based on aerotriangulation of four strips totaling 31 photographs. Subsequent DEMs collected during the course of the eruption are based on aerotriangulation of single aerial photograph strips consisting of between three and seven 1:12,000-scale photographs (two to six stereo pairs). Most datasets were based on three or four stereo pairs. Photogrammetric errors associated with each dataset are presented along with ground control used in the photogrammetric aerotriangulation. The temporal increase in area of deformation in the crater as a result of dome growth, deformation, and translation of glacial ice resulted in continual adoption of new ground control points and abandonment of others during the course of the eruption. Additionally, seasonal snow cover precluded the consistent use of some ground control points.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Remote camera observations of lava dome growth at Mount St. Helens, Washington, October 2004 to February 2006

Images from a Web-based camera (Webcam) located 8 km north of Mount St. Helens and a network of remote, telemetered digital cameras were used to observe eruptive activity at the volcano between October 2004 and February 2006. The cameras offered the advantages of low cost, low power, flexibility in deployment, and high spatial and temporal resolution. Images obtained from the cameras provided important insights into several aspects of dome extrusion, including rockfalls, lava extrusion rates, and explosive activity. Images from the remote, telemetered digital cameras were assembled into time-lapse animations of dome extrusion that supported monitoring, research, and outreach efforts. The wide-ranging utility of remote camera imagery should motivate additional work, especially to develop the three-dimensional quantitative capabilities of terrestrial camera networks.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Effects of lava-dome growth on the crater glacier of Mount St. Helens, Washington

The process of lava-dome emplacement through a glacier was observed for the first time as the 2004-6 eruption of Mount St. Helens proceeded. The glacier that had grown in the crater since the cataclysmic 1980 eruption was split in two by the new lava dome. The two parts of the glacier were successively squeezed against the crater wall. Photography, photogrammetry, and geodetic measurements document glacier deformation of an extreme variety, with strain rates of extraordinary magnitude as compared to normal temperate alpine glaciers. Unlike such glaciers, the Mount St. Helens crater glacier shows no evidence of either speed-up at the beginning of the ablation season or diurnal speed fluctuations during the ablation season. Thus there is evidently no slip of the glacier over its bed. The most reasonable explanation for this anomaly is that meltwater penetrating the glacier is captured by a thick layer of coarse rubble at the bed and then enters the volcano’s groundwater system rather than flowing through a drainage network along the bed. Mechanical consideration of the glacier-squeeze process also leads to an estimate for the driving pressure applied by the growing lava dome.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Use of digital aerophotogrammetry to determine rates of lava dome growth, Mount St. Helens, Washington, 2004-2005

Beginning in October 2004, a new lava dome grew on the glacier-covered crater floor of Mount St. Helens, Washington, immediately south of the 1980s lava dome. Seventeen digital elevation models (DEMs) constructed from vertical aerial photographs have provided quantitative estimates of extruded lava volumes and total volume change. To extract volumetric changes and calculate volumetric extrusion rates (magma discharge rates), each DEM surface was compared to preeruption DEM reference surfaces from 1986 and 2003. Early in the 2004-5 eruption, DEMs documented deforming glacier ice and crater floor that formed a prominent “welt” having a volume of 10×10 6 m 3 and a growth rate of 8.9 m 3 /s before dacite lava first appeared at the surface on October 11, 2004. Afterward, the rate was initially 5.9 m 3 /s but slowed to 2.5 m 3 /s by the beginning of January 2005. During 2005, the extrusion rate declined gradually to about 0.7 m 3 /s. By December 15, 2005, the new dome complex was about 900 m long and 625 m wide and reached 190 m above the 2003 surface. More than 73×10 6 m 3 of dacite lava had extruded onto the crater floor. Successful application of aerophotogrammetry was possible during the critical earliest parts of the eruption because we had baseline data and photogrammetric infrastructure in place before the eruption began. The vertical aerial photographs, including the DEMs and calculations derived from them, were one of the most widely used data sets collected during the 2004-5 eruption, as evidenced in numerous contributions to this volume. These data were used to construct photogeologic maps, deformation vector fields, and profiles of the evolving dome and glacier. Extruded volumes and rates proved to be critical parameters to constrain models and hypotheses of eruption dynamics and thus helped to assess volcano hazards.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Growth of the 2004-2006 lava-dome complex at Mount St. Helens, Washington

The eruption of Mount St. Helens from 2004 to 2006 has comprised extrusion of solid lava spines whose growth patterns were shaped by a large space south of the 1980-86 dome that was occupied by the unique combination of glacial ice, concealed subglacial slopes, the crater walls, and relics of previous spines. The eruption beginning September 2004 can be divided (as of April 2006) into five phases: (1) predome deformation and phreatic activity, (2) initial extrusion of spines, (3) recumbent spine growth and repeated breakup, (4) southward extrusion across previous dome debris, and (5) normal faulting of the phase 4 dome to form a depression, a shift to westward extrusion and overthrusting of earlier phase 5 products. Overall, steady spine extrusion gradually slowed from 6 m 3 /s in November 2004 to 0.6 m 3 /s in February 2006. Thermal camera data show that phase 1 activity included low-temperature thermal features, such as fumaroles, fractures, and ground warming related to rapid uplift, as well as deformation in the south moat of the crater. The relatively cold (<160°C) phreatic eruptions of early October heralded activity at a subglacial vent situated along the south-sloping margin of the 1980–86 dome. Thermal infrared imagery, documenting increased heat flow, presaged phase 2 extrusion of the October 11–15, 2004, lava spine. The thermal images of the extruding spine revealed a hot basal margin and highest temperatures of 600–730°C. During phase 3, a recumbent whaleback-shaped spine with a low-temperature shroud of fault gouge and a hot, U-shaped basal margin extruded. This spine pushed southward along the bed of the glacier until it encountered the south wall of the 1980 crater, whereupon it broke up, decoupled, and regrew. Continued southward growth of the recumbent spine pushed cold deformed rock, hot dome rubble, and glacier ice eastward at a rate of 2 m/d. In April 2005, breakup of the whaleback and growth of a lava spine across previous dome rubble heralded phase 4 spine thrusting over previous spine remnants. During phase 4, the active spine pushed southward with an increasingly vertical component and increasing incidence of large rockfalls. In late July, the spine decoupled from its source, the vent reorganized, and a new spine began to grow westward at right angles to the previous growth direction, defining phase 5. Dome migration again plowed glacier ice out of the way at a rate of about 2 m/d, this time westward. In early October, the spine buckled near the vent and thrust over the previous one. A massive spine monolith had been constructed by December 2005, and growth of spines with increasingly steep slopes characterized activity through April 2006. The chief near-surface controls on spine extrusion during 2004-6 have been vent location, relict topographic surfaces from the 1980s, and spine remnants emplaced previously during the present eruption. In contrast, glacier ice has had minimal influence on spine growth. Ice as thick as 150 m has prevented formation of marginal angle-of-repose talus fans but has not provided sufficient resistance to stop spine growth or slow it appreciably. Spines initially emerged along a relict south-facing slope as steep as 40° on the 1980s dome. The open space of the moat between that dome and the crater walls permitted initial southward migration of recumbent spines. An initial spine impinged on the opposing slopes of the crater and stopped; in contrast, recumbent whaleback spines of phase 3 impinged on opposing walls of the crater at oblique angles and rotated eastward before breaking up. Once spine remnants occupied all available open space to the south, spines thrust over previous remnants. Finally, with south and east portions of the moat filled, spine growth proceeded westward. Although Crater Glacier had only a small influence on the growing spines, spine growth affected the glacier dramatically, initially dividing it into two arms and then bulldozing it hundreds of meters, first east and then west, and heaping it more than 100 m higher than its original altitude.

Washington↗

USGS2008

A New Perspective on Mount St. Helens - Dramatic Landform Change and Associated Hazards at the Most Active Volcano in the Cascade Range

Mount St. Helens has erupted more frequently than any other volcano in the Cascade Range during the past 4,000 years. The volcano has exhibited a variety of eruption styles?explosive eruptions of pumice and ash, slow but continuous extrusions of viscous lava, and eruptions of fluid lava. Evidence of the volcano?s older eruptions is recorded in the rocks that build and the deposits that flank the mountain. Eruptions at Mount St. Helens over the past three decades serve as reminders of the powerful geologic forces that are reshaping the landscape of the Pacific Northwest. On May 18, 1980, a massive landslide and catastrophic explosive eruption tore away 2.7 cubic kilometers of the mountain and opened a gaping, north-facing crater. Lahars flowed more than 120 kilometers downstream, destroying bridges, roads, and buildings. Ash from the eruption fell as far away as western South Dakota. Reconstruction of the volcano began almost immediately. Between 1980 and 1986, 80 million cubic meters of viscous lava extruded episodically onto the crater floor, sometimes accompanied by minor explosions and small lahars. A lava dome grew to a height of 267 meters, taller than the highest buildings in the nearby city of Portland, Oregon. Crater Glacier formed in the deeply shaded niche between the 1980-86 lava dome and the south crater wall. Its tongues of ice flowed around the east and west sides of the dome. Between 1989 and 1991, multiple explosions of steam and ash rocked the volcano, possibly a result of infiltrating rainfall being heated in the still-hot interior of the dome and underlying crater floor. In September 2004, rising magma caused earthquake swarms and deformation of the crater floor and glacier, which indicated that Mount St. Helens might erupt again soon. On October 1, 2004, a steam and ash explosion signaled the beginning of a new phase of eruptive activity at the volcano. On October 11, hot rock reached the surface and began building a new lava dome immediately south of the 1980-86 lava dome. The erupting lava cleaved Crater Glacier in half and bulldozed it aside, causing thickening, crevassing, and rapid northward advance of the glacier?s east and west arms. Intermittent steam and ash explosions, some generating plumes that rose up to 11 kilometers, preceded and accompanied extrusion of the new lava dome, but ceased by early 2005. As the new dome grew, a series of large fins or spines of hot lava rose, some more than 100 meters high, and then crumbled producing sometimes spectacular rock falls. The largest of these rock falls generated dust or steam plumes that rose high above the crater rim. By February 2006, the new dome had grown to a volume similar to that of the 1980-86 lava dome; and by July 2007, the new dome had grown to a volume of 93 million cubic meters, exceeding the volume of the 1980-86 lava dome. The height of the new dome also exceeded that of the 1980-86 lava dome, and at its highest point (before collapse in 2005) reached to within 2 meters of the lowest point on the south crater rim. At this height, the new dome was taller than the Empire State Building in New York City. The new lava dome initially grew very quickly, at rates of 2 to 3 cubic meters (one small dump truck load) per second. If it had continued to grow at these rates for about 100 years, it would have replaced the volume of rock removed from the volcano during the May 18, 1980, eruption. However, the lava extrusion rate slowed throughout the eruption, and, by July 2007, it was oozing at a rate of 0.1 cubic meters per second. At that rate, it would take over 700 years to replace the volume of rock lost in 1980. Lava dome extrusion has continued into early 2008.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2006

Rebuilding Mount St. Helens

On May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens, Washington exploded in a spectacular and devastating eruption that shocked the world. The eruption, one of the most powerful in the history of the United States, removed 2.7 cubic kilometers of rock from the volcano's edifice, the bulk of which had been constructed by nearly 4,000 years of lava-dome-building eruptions. In seconds, the mountain's summit elevation was lowered from 2,950 meters to 2,549 meters, leaving a north-facing, horseshoe-shaped crater over 2 kilometers wide. Following the 1980 eruption, Mount St. Helens remained active. A large lava dome began episodically extruding in the center of the volcano's empty crater. This dome-building eruption lasted until 1986 and added about 80 million cubic meters of rock to the volcano. During the two decades following the May 18, 1980 eruption, Crater Glacier formed tongues of ice around the east and west sides of the lava dome in the deeply shaded niche between the lava dome and the south crater wall. Long the most active volcano in the Cascade Range with a complex 300,000-year history, Mount St. Helens erupted again in the fall of 2004 as a new period of dome building began within the 1980 crater. Between October 2004 and February 2006, about 80 million cubic meters of dacite lava erupted immediately south of the 1980-86 lava dome. The erupting lava separated the glacier into two parts, first squeezing the east arm of the glacier against the east crater wall and then causing equally spectacular crevassing and broad uplift of the glacier's west arm. Vertical aerial photographs document dome growth and glacier deformation. These photographs enabled photogrammetric construction of a series of high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) showing changes from October 4, 2004 to February 9, 2006. From the DEMs, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) applications were used to estimate extruded volumes and growth rates of the new lava dome. The DEMs were also used to quantify dome height variations, size of the magma conduit opening, and the mechanics of dome emplacement. Previous lava-dome-building eruptions at the volcano have persisted intermittently for years to decades. Over time, such events constructed much of the cone-shaped mountain seen prior to the May 18, 1980 eruption. Someday, episodic dome growth may eventually rebuild Mount St. Helens to its pre-1980 form.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2004

Debris-flow hazards at San Salvador, San Vicente, and San Miguel volcanoes, El Salvador

Volcanic debris flows (lahars) in El Salvador pose a significant risk to tens of thousands of people as well as to property and important infrastructure. Major cities and nearly a third of the country's population are located near San Salvador, San Vicente, and San Miguel volcanoes. Debris flows traveling as little as 4 km from source at these volcanoes put hundreds to thousands of lives, property, and infrastructure at risk. We used a statistically based model that relates debris-flow volume to cross-sectional and planimetric inundation areas to evaluate spatial patterns of inundation from a suite of debris flows ranging in volume from 100,000 m 3 to as large as 100 million m 3 and examined prehistoric deposits and a limited number of historical events at these volcanoes to estimate probable frequencies of recurrence. Our analyses show that zones of greatest debris-flow hazard generally are focused within 10 km of the summits of the volcanoes. For typical debris-flow velocities (3–10 m/s), these hazard areas can be inundated within a few minutes to a few tens of minutes after the onset of a debris flow. Our analyses of debris-flow recurrence at these volcanoes suggest that debris flows with volumes of 100,000 m 3 to as large as 500,000 m 3 have probable return periods broadly in the range of ∼10 to 100 yr. Debris flows having volumes less than 100,000 m 3 probably recur more frequently, especially at San Miguel volcano. Despite the limited extents of the hazard zones portrayed in our analyses, even the smallest debris flows could be devastating. Urban and agricultural expansions have encroached onto the flanks of the volcanoes, and debris-flow–hazard zones extend well into areas that are settled densely or used for agriculture. Therefore, people living, working, or recreating along channels that drain the volcanoes must learn to recognize potentially hazardous conditions, be aware of the extents of debris-flow–hazard zones, and be prepared to evacuate to safer ground when hazardous conditions develop.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Debris-flow hazards caused by hydrologic events at Mount Rainier, Washington

At 4393 m, ice-clad Mount Rainier has great potential for debris flows owing to its precipitous slopes and incised steep valleys, the large volume of water stored in its glaciers, and a mantle of loose debris on its slopes. In the past 10,000 years, more than sixty Holocene lahars have occurred at Mount Rainier (Scott et al., 1985), and, in addition more than thirty debris flows not related to volcanism have occurred in historical time (Walder and Driedger, 1984). Lahars at Mount Rainier can be classed in 3 groups according to their genesis: (1) flank collapse of hydrothermally altered, water-saturated rock; (2) eruption-related release of water and loose debris; and (3) hydrologic release of water and debris (Scott et al., 1985). Lahars in the first two categories are commonly voluminous and are generally related to unrest and explosions that occur during eruptive episodes. Lahars in the third category, distinguished here as debris flows, are less voluminous than the others but occur frequently at Mount Rainier, often with little or no warning. Historically at Mount Rainier, glacial outburst floods, torrential rains, and stream capture have caused small- to moderate-size debris flows (Walder and Driedger, 1984). Such debris flows are most likely to occur in drainages that have large glaciers in them. Less commonly, a drainage diversion has triggered a debris flow in an unglaciated drainage basin. For example, the diversion of Kautz Glacier meltwater into Van Trump basin triggered debris flows on the south side of Rainier in August 2001. On the basis of historical accounts, debris flows having hydrologic origins are likely to be unheralded, and have occurred as seldom as once in 8 years and as often as four times per year at Mount Rainier (Walder and Driedger, 1984). Such debris flows are most likely to occur during periods of hot dry weather or during periods of intense rainfall, and therefore must occur during the summer and fall. They are likely to begin at or above the elevations of glacier termini and extend down valley. This report discusses potential hazards from debris flows induced by hydrologic events such as glacial outburst floods and torrential rain at Mount Rainier and the surrounding area bounded by Mount Rainier National Park. The report also shows, in the accompanying hazard-zonation maps, which areas are likely to be at risk from future such debris flows at Mount Rainier. Lahar hazards related to avalanches of altered rock and to the interactions of hot rock and ice during eruptions are discussed in Scott and Vallance (1995) and Hoblitt et al. (1998) and are not addressed in this report.

Washington↗

USGS1997

Automated, reproducible delineation of zones at risk from inundation by large volcanic debris flows

Large debris flows can pose hazards to people and property downstream from volcanoes. We have developed a rapid, reproducible, objective, and inexpensive method to delineate distal debris-flow hazard zones. Our method employs the results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry of volcanic debris flows (lahars) to predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume. We use a range of specified lahar volumes to evaluate A and B. In a Geographic Information System (GIS) we employ the resulting range of predicted A and B to delineate gradations in inundation hazard, which is highest near the volcano and along valley thalwegs and diminishes as distances from the volcano and elevations above valley floors increase. Comparison of our computer-generated hazard maps with those constructed using traditional, field-based methods indicates that our method can provide an accurate means of delineating lahar hazard zones.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1996

Digital data set of volcano hazards for active Cascade Volcanos, Washington

Scientists at the Cascade Volcano Observatory have completed hazard assessments for the five active volcanos in Washington. The five studies included Mount Adams (Scott and others, 1995), Mount Baker (Gardner and others, 1995), Glacier Peak (Waitt and others, 1995), Mount Rainier (Hoblitt and others, 1995) and Mount St. Helens (Wolfe and Pierson, 1995). Twenty Geographic Information System (GIS) data sets have been created that represent the hazard information from the assessments. The twenty data sets have individual Open File part numbers and titles

Open-File Report↗