Geology topics

Steve J. Kendall

Publications and source records attributed to Steve J. Kendall.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Improved abundance trajectories with Bayesian population dynamics model: Case study with a Hawaiian honeycreeper

Many wildlife monitoring programmes collect annual data on population abundance. The resulting abundance estimates fluctuate over time partly because of true population change and partly because of observation error. These two components of variation can be separated by fitting the estimates to a population dynamics model within a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. By constraining the population trajectory to be biologically realistic, more precise estimates can be obtained. Independent biological knowledge can be incorporated through choice of model structure and by specifying informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. We illustrate the approach using a 31-year point transect study of the Hawai’i ’ākepa ( Loxops coccineus ). We fitted five models, each making different assumptions about how population change, recruitment and/or adult survival varied over time. Overall, the ’ākepa geometric mean growth rate was 1.02, indicating an increasing population over the 31-year time series, although there were periods of slow decline potentially associated with low recruitment and more rapid recovery associated with pulses of high recruitment. Abundance estimates derived from the population models were substantially more precise than the ‘raw’ point transect estimates: 95% credible interval (CrI) was on average 51.7% (s.d. = 14.1%) narrower.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Accounting for spatial habitat and management boundaries when estimating forest bird population distribution and density: Inferences from a soap film smoother

Birds are often obligate to specific habitats which can result in study areas with complex boundaries due to sudden changes in vegetation or other features. This can result in study areas with concave arcs or that include holes of unsuitable habitat such as lakes or agricultural fields. Spatial models used to produce species’ distribution and density estimates need to respect such boundaries to make informed decisions for species conservation and management. The soap film smoother is one model for complex study regions which controls the boundary behaviour, ensuring realistic values at the edges of the region. We apply the soap film smoother to account for boundary effects and compare it with thin plate regression spline (TPRS) smooth and design-based conventional distance sampling methods to produce abundance estimates from point-transect distance sampling collected data on Hawai‘i ‘Ākepa Loxops coccineus in the Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Hawai‘i Island, USA. The soap film smoother predicted zero or near zero densities in the northern part of the domain and two hotspots (in the southern and central parts of the domain). Along the boundary the soap film model predicted relatively high densities where ‘Ākepa occur in the adjacent forest and near zero elsewhere. The design-based and soap film abundance estimates were nearly identical. The width of the soap film confidence interval was 16.5% and 0.8% wider than the width of the TPRS smooth and design-based confidence intervals, respectively. The peaks in predicted densities along the boundary indicates leakage by the TPRS smooth. We provide a discussion of the statistical methods, biological findings and management implications of applying soap film smoothers to estimate forest bird population status.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Using density surface models to estimate spatio-temporal changes in population densities and trend

Precise measures of population abundance and trend are needed for species conservation; these are most difficult to obtain for rare and rapidly changing populations. We compare uncertainty in densities estimated from spatio–temporal models with that from standard design‐based methods. Spatio–temporal models allow us to target priority areas where, and at times when, a population may most benefit. Generalised additive models were fitted to a 31‐year time series of point‐transect surveys of an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, the Hawai‘i ‘ākepa Loxops coccineus . This allowed us to estimate bird densities over space and time. We used two methods to quantify uncertainty in density estimates from the spatio–temporal model: the delta method (which assumes independence between detection and distribution parameters) and a variance propagation method. With the delta method we observed a 52% decrease in the width of the design‐based 95% confidence interval (CI), while we observed a 37% decrease in CI width when propagating the variance. We mapped bird densities as they changed across space and time, allowing managers to evaluate management actions. Integrating detection function modelling with spatio–temporal modelling exploits survey data more efficiently by producing finer‐grained abundance estimates than are possible with design‐based methods as well as producing more precise abundance estimates. Model‐based approaches require switching from making assumptions about the survey design to assumptions about bird distribution. Such a switch warrants consideration. In this case the model‐based approach benefits conservation planning through improved management efficiency and reduced costs by taking into account both spatial shifts and temporal changes in population abundance and distribution.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Effects of leg flags on nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Marking wild birds is an integral part of many field studies. However, if marks affect the vital rates or behavior of marked individuals, any conclusions reached by a study might be biased relative to the general population. Leg bands have rarely been found to have negative effects on birds and are frequently used to mark individuals. Leg flags, which are larger, heavier, and might produce more drag than bands, are commonly used on shorebirds and can help improve resighting rates. However, no one to date has assessed the possible effects of leg flags on the demographic performance of shorebirds. At seven sites in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, we marked individuals and monitored nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, including Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ), Western Sandpipers ( C. mauri ), Red‐necked Phalaropes ( Phalaropus lobatus ), and Red Phalaropes ( P. fulicarius ). We used a daily nest survival model in a Bayesian framework to test for effects of leg flags, relative to birds with only bands, on daily survival rates of 1952 nests. We found no evidence of a difference in nest survival between birds with flags and those with only bands. Our results suggest, therefore, that leg flags have little effect on the nest success of Arctic‐breeding sandpipers and phalaropes. Additional studies are needed, however, to evaluate the possible effects of flags on shorebirds that use other habitats and on survival rates of adults and chicks.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2018

Research and management priorities for Hawaiian forest birds

Hawai‘i's forest birds face a number of conservation challenges that, if unaddressed, will likely lead to the extinction of multiple species in the coming decades. Threats include habitat loss, invasive plants, non-native predators, and introduced diseases. Climate change is predicted to increase the geographic extent and intensity of these threats, adding urgency to implementation of tractable conservation strategies. We present a set of actionable research and management approaches, identified by conservation practitioners in Hawai'i, that will be critical for the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds in the coming years. We also summarize recent progress on these conservation priorities. The threats facing Hawai‘i's forest birds are not unique to Hawai‘i, and successful conservation strategies developed in Hawai‘i can serve as a model for other imperiled communities around the world, especially on islands.

Hawai‘i↗

USGS2017

Rapid colonization of a Hawaiian restoration forest by a diverse avian community

Deforestation of tropical forests has led to widespread loss and extirpation of forest bird species around the world, including the Hawaiian Islands which have experienced a dramatic loss of forests over the last 200–800 years. Given the important role birds play in forest ecosystem functions via seed dispersal and pollination, a bird community's response to forest restoration is an important measure of the success of such conservation actions. We evaluated the bird response to reforestation at an important bird sanctuary, Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai′i Island, using 26 years of bird count data. We show that most species from within the diverse avian community increased significantly, but species colonized the restoration forest at different rates. Distance from intact forest and time since restoration were both important predictors of colonization rate, interacting such that for most species it took more time to colonize areas farther from the intact forest. In addition, both forest cover and understory diversity helped to explain bird densities, but the effect varied among species, suggesting that different habitat requirements may help drive variation in colonization rates. This article provides the first detailed evaluation of how a diverse community of birds has responded to one of the largest, ongoing reforestation projects in Hawai′i.

Hawai′i↗

USGS2017

The first hop: Use of Beaufort Sea deltas by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers

River deltas along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast are used by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) after leaving their terrestrial natal sites, but the drivers of their use of these stopover sites on the first “hop” of fall migration are unknown. We quantified sandpiper temporal distribution and abundance as related to food resources at three river deltas during the beginning of their fall migration (post-breeding period) to compare the habitat quality among these deltas. We conducted population counts, sampled invertebrates, and captured birds to collect blood samples from individuals for triglyceride and stable isotope analyses to determine fattening rates and diet. Patterns of sandpiper and invertebrate abundance were complex and varied among deltas and within seasons. River deltas were used by sandpipers from late July to late August, and peak sandpiper counts ranged from 1000 to 4000 individuals, of which 98% were hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers. Isotopic signatures from blood plasma samples indicated that birds switched from a diet of upland tundra to delta invertebrate taxa as the migration season progressed, suggesting a dependence on delta invertebrates. Despite differences in diet among deltas, we found no differences in fattening rates of juvenile sandpipers as indicated by triglyceride levels. The number of sandpipers was positively associated with abundance of Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at the Jago and Okpilak-Hulahula deltas; an isotopic mixing model indicated that sandpipers consumed Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at Jago, mostly Chironomidae at Okpilak-Hulahula and Spionidae at Canning. Regardless of the difference in sandpiper diets at the Beaufort Sea deltas, their similar fattening rates throughout the season indicate that all of these stopover sites provide a critical food resource for hatch-year sandpipers beginning their first migration.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests ( n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Abundance, distribution, and removals of feral pigs at Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex 2010–2015

The Hakalau Forest Unit (HFU) of Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (BINWRC) has intensively monitored non-native ungulate presence and distribution during surveys of all managed areas since 1988. In this report we: 1) provide results from recent ungulate surveys and the number of removals at HFU to determine the distribution, abundance, and efficacy of removals of feral pigs, the dominant ungulate, from 2010 to 2015; 2) present results of surveys of the presence and distribution of several ungulate species at the Kona Forest Unit (KFU) of BINWRC from November of 2012 to April of 2015; 3) present results of surveys of weed presence and cover at both refuge units; and 4) present comparative analyses of forest canopy cover at KFU from visual estimates and geospatial imagery. Removals of feral pigs at HFU appear to have significantly decreased pig abundance over the study period from 2010–2015. A grand total of 1,660 feral pigs were removed from managed areas of HFU from 2010 until September of 2015. Management units 2 and 4 contained the majority of pigs at HFU. Recent surveys recorded high densities of pigs in the unenclosed, unmanaged area of Lower Maulua, reaching 14.9 ± (3.2) pigs/km 2 in March of 2015. The total amount of ungulate sign ranged from 22.2 to 54.3 percent of plots surveyed at KFU from November of 2012 to April of 2015. The ability to differentiate sign of ungulate species remains problematic at KFU; although there appears to have been a significant decline in feral cattle sign at KFU, this result is likely to be unreliable because cattle and pig sign were not differentiated consistently during later surveys. Spatial distributions in weed cover are distinctive; however, some weed species may not be reliably represented due to observers’ inconsistencies in recording data and abilities to recognize less common weeds.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Natural disturbance shapes benthic intertidal macroinvertebrate communities of high latitude river deltas

Unlike lower latitude coastlines, the estuarine nearshore zones of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea are icebound and frozen up to 9 months annually. This annual freezing event represents a dramatic physical disturbance to fauna living within intertidal sediments. The main objectives of this study were to describe the benthic communities of Beaufort Sea deltas, including temporal changes and trophic structure. Understanding benthic invertebrate communities provided a baseline for concurrent research on shorebird foraging ecology at these sites. We found that despite continuous year-to-year episodes of annual freezing, these estuarine deltas are populated by a range of invertebrates that represent both marine and freshwater assemblages. Freshwater organisms like Diptera and Oligochaeta not only survive this extreme event, but a marine invasion of infaunal organisms such as Amphipoda and Polychaeta rapidly recolonizes the delta mudflats following ice ablation. These delta sediments of sand, silt, and clay are fine in structure compared to sediments of other Beaufort Sea coastal intertidal habitats. The relatively depauperate invertebrate community that ultimately develops is composed of marine and freshwater benthic invertebrates. The composition of the infauna also reflects two strategies that make life on Beaufort Sea deltas possible: a migration of marine organisms from deeper lagoons to the intertidal and freshwater biota that survive the 9-month ice-covered period in frozen sediments. Stable isotopic analyses reveal that both infaunal assemblages assimilate marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon. These results provide some of the first quantitative information on the infaunal food resources of shallow arctic estuarine systems and the long-term persistence of these invertebrate assemblages. Our data help explain the presence of large numbers of shorebirds in these habitats during the brief summer open-water period and their trophic importance to migrating waterfowl and nearshore populations of estuarine fishes that are the basis of subsistence lifestyles by native inhabitants of the Beaufort Sea coast.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2015

Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur ( Calcarius pictus ) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests ( n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

The Auk↗