Geology topics

Scott Ator

Publications and source records attributed to Scott Ator.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Seasonal estimates of nutrient loading, sources, and impacts on water availability in streams across the conterminous United States, 2000–2020

Excess riverine nutrients can limit water availability for humans and ecosystems. Nutrient monitoring on individual stream reaches provides important information about current and past conditions, yet most river reaches are unmonitored. Additionally, monitored data integrate effects of upstream sources, sinks, and pathways by which nutrients get into streams, making explicit planning for effective nutrient reduction strategies challenging. We developed and applied dynamic SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to quantify total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) delivery and source-specific loading in all stream reaches of the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a seasonal timestep from 2000 through 2020. Between one third and one half of non-point source nutrients lagged more than one season in their delivery to CONUS streams over the study period. The largest sources of nutrients that were applied and delivered to streams within a season were agricultural fertilizers, treated wastewater, atmospheric deposition, and manure. Increases in loads were widespread across the CONUS and predominantly associated with increased loading from lagged delivery of non-point source inputs and current season fertilizer application. Model results also identified extensive areas where predicted seasonal concentrations frequently exceeded the National Rivers and Streams Assessment “poor” criteria. Increased loading occurred in areas with high yields and delivery to downstream receiving waterbodies, particularly across the Midwest, raising the risk of negative impacts to downstream water availability. The modeling approach presented here provides a continental-scale framework for identifying when, where, and why nutrients are generated and how that may ultimately impact receiving waterbodies.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

Seasonally varying contributions of contemporaneous and lagged sources of instream total nitrogen and phosphorus load across the Illinois River basin

Quantifying nutrient sources in streams, their temporal and spatial variability, and drivers of that variability can support effective water resources management. Yet a lack of data and modeling capabilities has previously prevented comprehensive quantification across both space and time. Here a dynamic SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes) model that accounts for a lagged delivery of nutrients to streams was developed and applied to simulate seasonal and source-specific total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads in streams across the Illinois River basin (IRB). Dynamic load predictions from 2000 through 2020 revealed that a third of the TN and a quarter of the TP instream load originated from non-point sources that were lagged in their delivery from land-application to streams by more than a season. This lagged mass was the largest overall TN source—which was estimated as a lagged expression of previous seasonal non-point sources including fertilizer, manure, atmospheric deposition and fixation, and urban land use. Treated wastewater effluent was the largest TP source exported from the basin, contributing 39 % of the TP load and 15 % of the TN load, and dominated the load in the upper Illinois River near Chicago. Loads in the lower river during this period, conversely, were attributed primarily to a mix of agricultural sources and their lagged fractions from headwater tributaries. Instream processes removed 10 % of the TN load while only 4 % of the TP load was removed during instream transport. With appropriate datasets, the models could be extended to other basins or time periods and used to forecast future seasonal nutrient loads.

Illinois↗

USGS2023

Estimated reduction of nitrogen in streams of the Chesapeake Bay in areas with agricultural conservation practices

Spatial data provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Resource Conservation Service representing implementation at the field-level for a selection of agricultural conservation practices were incorporated within a spatially referenced regression model to estimate their effects on nitrogen loads in streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Conservation practices classified as “high-impact” were estimated to be effective ( p = 0.017) at reducing contemporary nitrogen loads to streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed in areas where groundwater ages are estimated to be less than 14-years old. Watershed-wide, high-impact practices were estimated to reduce nitrogen loads to streams by 1.45%, with up to 60% reductions in areas with shorter groundwater ages and larger amounts of implementation. Effects of “other-impact” practices and practices in areas with groundwater ages of 14 years or more showed less evidence of effectiveness. That the discernable impact of high-impact practices was limited to areas with a median groundwater age of less than 14 years does not imply that conservation practices are not effective in areas with older groundwater ages. A model recalibrated using high-impact agricultural conservation practice data summarized by county suggests effects may also be detectable using implementation data available at such coarser resolution. Despite increasing investment, effects of agricultural conservation practices on regional water quality remain difficult to quantify due to factors such as groundwater travel times, varying modes-of-action, and the general lack of high-quality spatial datasets representing practice implementation.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2022

Effects of return flows on stream water quality and availability in the Upper Colorado, Delaware, and Illinois River Basins

Understanding effects of human water use and subsequent return flows on the availability and suitability of water for downstream uses is critical to efficient and effective watershed management. We compared spatially detailed estimates of stream chemistry within three watersheds in diverse settings to available standards to isolate effects of wastewater and irrigation return flows on the suitability of downstream waters for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for selected human uses. Mean-annual flow-weighted total and source-specific concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in individual stream reaches within the Upper Colorado, Delaware, and Illinois River Basins and of total dissolved solids within stream reaches of the Upper Colorado River Basin were estimated from previously calibrated regional watershed models. Estimated concentrations of both nitrogen and phosphorus in most stream reaches in all three watersheds (at least 78%, by length) exceed recommended standards for the protection of aquatic ecosystems, although concentrations in relatively few streams exceed such standards due to contributions from wastewater return flows, alone. Consequently, efforts to reduce wastewater nutrient effluent may provide important local downstream benefits but would likely have minimal impact on regional ecological conditions. Similarly, estimated mean-annual flow-weighted total dissolved solids concentrations in the Upper Colorado River Basin exceed standards for agricultural water use and (or) the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for drinking water in 52% of streams (by length), but rarely due to effects of irrigation return flows, alone. Dissolved solids in most tributaries of the Upper Colorado River are attributable primarily to natural sources.

Upper Colorado, Delaware, and Illinois River Basin↗

USGS2022

Predicting near-term effects of climate change on nitrogen transport to Chesapeake Bay

Understanding effects of climate change on nitrogen fate and transport in the environment is critical to nutrient management. We used climate projections within a previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) model to predict effects of expected climate change over 1995 through 2025 on total nitrogen fluxes to Chesapeake Bay and in watershed streams. Assuming nitrogen inputs and other watershed conditions remain at 2012 levels, effects of increasing temperature, runoff, streamflow, and stream velocity expected between 1995 and 2025 will include an estimated net 6.5% decline in annual nitrogen delivery to the bay from its watershed. This predicted decline is attributable to declines in the delivery of nitrogen from upland nonpoint sources to streams due to predicted warmer temperatures. Such temperature-driven declines in the delivery of nitrogen to streams more than offset predicted increased delivery to and within streams due to increased runoff and streamflow and may be attributable to increasing rates of denitrification or ammonia volatilization or to changes in plant phenology. Predicted climate-driven declines in nitrogen flux are generally similar across the watershed but vary slightly among major nonpoint source sectors and tributary watersheds. Nitrogen contributions to the bay from point sources are not affected by temperature-driven changes in delivery from uplands and are therefore predicted to increase slightly between 1995 and 2025.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2019

Toward explaining nitrogen and phosphorus trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries, 1992-2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially-referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow-normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14 percent to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80 percent of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13 percent) and urban non-point sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while non-point inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9 percent to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virg↗

USGS2016

Application of SPARROW modeling to understanding contaminant fate and transport from uplands to streams

Understanding spatial variability in contaminant fate and transport is critical to efficient regional water-quality restoration. An approach to capitalize on previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) models to improve the understanding of contaminant fate and transport was developed and applied to the case of nitrogen in the 166,000 km 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. A continuous function of four hydrogeologic, soil, and other landscape properties significant ( α = 0.10) to nitrogen transport from uplands to streams was evaluated and compared among each of the more than 80,000 individual catchments (mean area, 2.1 km 2 ) in the watershed. Budgets (including inputs, losses or net change in storage in uplands and stream corridors, and delivery to tidal waters) were also estimated for nitrogen applied to these catchments from selected upland sources. Most (81%) of such inputs are removed, retained, or otherwise processed in uplands rather than transported to surface waters. Combining SPARROW results with previous budget estimates suggests 55% of this processing is attributable to denitrification, 23% to crop or timber harvest, and 6% to volatilization. Remaining upland inputs represent a net annual increase in landscape storage in soils or biomass exceeding 10 kg per hectare in some areas. Such insights are important for planning watershed restoration and for improving future watershed models.

JAWRA↗

USGS2012

Estimating contributions of nitrate and herbicides from groundwater to headwater streams, northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Groundwater transport often complicates understanding of surface-water contamination. We estimated the regional flux of nitrate and selected herbicides from groundwater to nontidal headwater streams of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (New Jersey through North Carolina) based on late-winter or spring base-flow samples from 174 streams. Sampled streams were selected randomly, and flux estimates are based on resulting population estimates rather than on empirical models, which have been used previously for similar estimates. Base-flow flux in the estimated 8,834 headwater streams of the study area are an estimated 21,200 kg/day of nitrate (as N) and 5.83, 0.565, and 20.7 kg/day of alachlor, atrazine, and metolachlor (and selected degradates), respectively. Base-flow flux of alachlor and metolachlor is <3% of the total base-flow flux of those compounds plus degradates. Base-flow flux of nitrate and herbicides as a percentage of applications is typically highest in well-drained areas and lowest in areas with abundant poor drainage and anoxic conditions. In Coastal Plain watersheds of Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, <2% of applied nitrogen reaches headwater streams as base flow. On the Delmarva Peninsula part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, however, more than 10% of such applications are transported through groundwater to streams, and base-flow nitrate flux represents 70% of total nitrogen flux in headwater streams.

Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain↗