Geology topics

Samuel Pecoraro

Publications and source records attributed to Samuel Pecoraro.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Large-scale variation in lakebed properties interpreted from single-beam sonar in two Laurentian Great Lakes

Acoustic seabed classification (ASC) is an important method for understanding landscape-level physical and biological patterns in the aquatic environment. Bottom habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes are poorly mapped to date, and will require a variety of contributors and data sources to complete. We repurposed a long-term split-beam echosounder dataset gathered for purposes of fisheries assessment to estimate lakebed properties utilizing unsupervised classification of echo return data. We interpreted first echo properties representing lakebed hardness and roughness to define and map three statistically supported lakebed classes revealed through cluster analysis. Our results indicate coherent and logical class boundaries and suggest that the dataset has promise for expanded use in ASC. To improve inferences using repeated measures, future work should focus on collecting ground truth information for areas previously surveyed and on collecting concurrent ground truth information when sampling acoustic data moving forward.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Evaluating the migration mortality hypothesis using monarch tagging data

The decline in the eastern North American population of the monarch butterfly population since the late 1990s has been attributed to the loss of milkweed during the summer breeding season and the consequent reduction in the size of the summer population that migrates to central Mexico to overwinter (milkweed limitation hypothesis). However, in some studies the size of the summer population was not found to decline and was not correlated with the size of the overwintering population. The authors of these studies concluded that milkweed limitation could not explain the overwintering population decline. They hypothesized that increased mortality during fall migration was responsible (migration mortality hypothesis). We used data from the long-term monarch tagging program, managed by Monarch Watch, to examine three predictions of the migration mortality hypothesis: (1) that the summer population size is not correlated with the overwintering population size, (2) that migration success is the main determinant of overwintering population size, and (3) that migration success has declined over the last two decades. As an index of the summer population size, we used the number of wild-caught migrating individuals tagged in the U.S. Midwest from 1998 to 2015. As an index of migration success we used the recovery rate of Midwest tagged individuals in Mexico. With regard to the three predictions: (1) the number of tagged individuals in the Midwest, explained 74% of the variation in the size of the overwintering population. Other measures of summer population size were also correlated with overwintering population size. Thus, there is no disconnection between late summer and winter population sizes. (2) Migration success was not significantly correlated with overwintering population size, and (3) migration success did not decrease during this period. Migration success was correlated with the level of greenness of the area in the southern U.S. used for nectar by migrating butterflies. Thus, the main determinant of yearly variation in overwintering population size is summer population size with migration success being a minor determinant. Consequently, increasing milkweed habitat, which has the potential of increasing the summer monarch population, is the conservation measure that will have the greatest impact.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Is the timing, pace and success of the monarch migration associated with sun angle?

A basic question concerning the monarch butterfly’s fall migration is which monarchs succeed in reaching overwintering sites in Mexico, which fail—and why. We document the timing and pace of the fall migration, ask whether the sun’s position in the sky is associated with the pace of the migration, and whether timing affects success in completing the migration. Using data from the Monarch Watch tagging program, we explore whether the fall monarch migration is associated with the daily maximum vertical angle of the sun above the horizon (Sun Angle at Solar Noon, SASN) or whether other processes are more likely to explain the pace of the migration. From 1998 to 2015, more than 1.38 million monarchs were tagged and 13,824 (1%) were recovered in Mexico. The pace of migration was relatively slow early in the migration but increased in late September and declined again later in October as the migrating monarchs approached lower latitudes. This slow-fast-slow pacing in the fall migration is consistent with monarchs reaching latitudes with the same SASN, day after day, as they move south to their overwintering sites. The observed pacing pattern and overall movement rates are also consistent with monarchs migrating at a pace determined by interactions among SASN, temperature, and daylength. The results suggest monarchs successfully reaching the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) migrate within a “migration window” with an SASN of about 57° at the leading edge of the migration and 46° at the trailing edge. Migrants reaching locations along the migration route with SASN outside this migration window may be considered early or late migrants. We noted several years with low overwintering abundance of monarchs, 2004 and 2011–2014, with high percentages of late migrants. This observation suggests a possible effect of migration timing on population size. The migration window defined by SASN might serve as a framework against which to establish the influence of environmental factors on the size, geographic distribution, and timing of past and future fall migrations.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Balancing sampling intensity against spatial coverage for a community science monitoring programme

Community science is an increasingly integral part of biodiversity research and monitoring, often achieving broad spatial and temporal coverage but lower sampling intensity than studies conducted by professional scientists. When designing a community‐science monitoring programme, careful assessment of sampling designs that could be both feasible and successful at meeting programme goals is essential. Monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ) are the focus of several successful community‐science projects in the U.S., but broader coverage is needed to monitor breeding areas and explain population declines observed in overwintering areas. The U.S. Monarch Conservation Science Partnership's Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) will representatively monitor monarchs and milkweed across North America. We performed a simulation‐based power analysis to predict trade‐offs between sampling breadth (number of sites and years) and sampling intensity (number of visits or subplots per site and year) for the IMMP. We evaluated whether each sampling design would produce sufficient statistical power to detect population trends and differences among land‐use sectors in densities of milkweed, monarch eggs, and adult monarchs. Sampling breadth had much stronger effects than sampling intensity on statistical power for all three monitoring targets. Depending on land‐use sector, monitoring 400–800 sites over 10–15 years would detect trends in densities of milkweed and adult monarchs, but no scenarios were successful for monarch eggs. Sampling 400–800 sites would also detect small (for adult monarchs) to large (for milkweed) differences among land‐use sectors in density of all three monitoring targets within the first 2–5 years. As more data become available from the IMMP, the sampling goals can be updated. Synthesis and applications . Careful sample design is an essential step in developing a successful monitoring programme. For monarchs and milkweed, we found that sampling breadth (number of sites and years) had a much stronger effect on statistical power than sampling intensity (number of visits or subsamples per site), suggesting field protocols could be tailored to maximize recruitment and retention of volunteers by minimizing the effort required to monitor each site. Many long‐term monitoring programmes might similarly benefit from evaluating the statistical trade‐offs between sampling breadth and intensity in their sampling designs.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗