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Sallenger

Publications and source records attributed to Sallenger.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2016

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

Atlantic Coast, Cape Cod, Cape Hatteras, North Ame↗
USGS2012

Hurricanes, sea level rise, and coastal change

Sixteen hurricanes have made landfall along the U.S. east and Gulf coasts over the past decade. For most of these storms, the USGS with our partners in NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have flown before and after lidar missions to detect changes in beaches and dunes. The most dramatic changes occurred when the coasts were completely submerged in an inundation regime. Where this occurred locally, a new breach was cut, like during Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina. Where surge inundated an entire island, the sand was stripped off leaving marshy outcrops behind, like during Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Sea level rise together with sand starvation and repeated hurricane impacts could increase the probabilities of inundation and degrade coasts more than sea level rise alone.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Field observations of swash zone flow patterns and 3D morphodynamics

Rapid video measurements of foreshore morphology and velocity were collected at Duck, NC in 1997 to investigate sediment transport processes in the swash zone. Estimates of foreshore evolution over a roughly 30 m cross-shore by 80 m alongshore study area were determined using a stereogrammetric technique. During the passage of a small storm (offshore wave heights increased from 1.4 to 2.5 m), the foreshore eroded nearly 40 cm in less than 4 hours. Dense, horizontal surface velocities were measured over a sub-region (roughly 30 m by 40 m) of the study area using a new particle image velocimetry technique. This technique was able to quantify velocities across the bore front approaching 5 m s –1 as well as the rapid velocities in the very shallow backwash flows. The velocity and foreshore topography measurements were used to test a three-dimensional energetics-based sediment transport model. Even though these data represent the most extensive and highly resolved swash measurements to date, the results showed that while the model could predict some of the qualitative trends in the observed foreshore change, it was a poor predictor of the observed magnitudes of foreshore change. Model — data comparisons differed by roughly an order of magnitude with observed foreshore changes on the order of 10's of centimeters and model predictions on the order of meters. This poor comparison suggests that future models of swash-zone sediment transport may require the inclusion of other physical processes such as bore turbulence, fluid accelerations and skewness, infiltration/exfiltration, water depth variations, and variable friction factors (to name a few).

North Carolina↗
USGS2011

Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Comment on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

In a recent article ( Eos, Trans., AGU , February 8, 2000, p.55), Leatherman et al. [2000] state that they have confirmed an association between sea-level rise and coastal erosion. Applying their results to the New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland coasts and using a projected sea-level rise, the authors predict that by 2050 the shoreline will recede 60 m, about two times the average beach width. However, Leatherman et al. [2000] have not convincingly quantified a relationship between sea-level rise and shoreline erosion.We do not agree with their rationale for subsetting their data, and they have not considered other explanations for a background erosion along the U.S. east coast. Furthermore, their future projections are not supported by their analyses.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2007

Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana

Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.

Louisiana↗
USGS2001

Quantifying hurricane-induced coastal changes using topographic lidar

USGS and NASA are investigating the impacts of hurricanes on the United States East and Gulf of Mexico coasts with the ultimate objective of improving predictive capabilities. The cornerstone of our effort is to use topographic lidar to acquire pre- and post-storm topography to quantify changes to beaches and dunes. With its rapidity of acquisition and very high density, lidar is revolutionizing the. quantification of storm-induced coastal change. Lidar surveys have been acquired for the East and Gulf coasts to serve as pre-storm baselines. Within a few days of a hurricane landfall anywhere within the study area, the impacted area will be resurveyed to detect changes. For example, during 1999, Hurricane Dennis impacted the northern North Carolina coast. Along a 70-km length of coast between Cape Hatteras and Oregon Inlet, there was large variability in the types of impacts including overwash, dune erosion, dune stability, and even accretion at the base of dunes. These types of impacts were arranged in coherent patterns that repeated along the coast over scales of tens of kilometers. Preliminary results suggest the variability is related to the influence of offshore shoals that induce longshore gradients in wave energy by wave refraction.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Two months of flooding in eastern North Carolina, September-October 1999: Hydrologic, water-quality, and geologic effects of hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene

The combined effects of Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene in September and October 1999 resulted in 2 months of flooding throughout most of eastern North Carolina. Hurricane Dennis battered the Outer Banks for almost a week in early September, resulting in severe shore- line erosion in some locations near Buxton and Rodanthe. Upon making landfall less than 2 weeks before Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Dennis delivered 4 to 8 inches of rain to much of the Tar and Neuse River Basins, breaking a drought and saturating soils. Hurricane Floyd will likely be the second or third most costly hurricane to strike the United States in the 20th century, resulting in more fatalities than any hurricane to strike the United States since 1972. Rainfall amounts recorded during Hurricane Floyd (September 14-17, 1999) and accumulated during the months of September and October were unprecedented for many parts of eastern North Carolina during more than 80 years of precipitation records. Most recording stations in eastern North Carolina received at least half the average annual rainfall during the 2 months. Flooding was at record levels, and 500-year or greater floods occurred in all of the State's river basins east of Raleigh. More than half of the average annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads were transported in the Neuse and Tar Rivers by floodwaters during the 1-month period between mid-September and mid-October. Shoreline erosion from the passage of Hurricane Floyd was particularly severe along Oak and Topsail Islands; the effects of Hurricane Floyd on shoreline erosion and dune retreat were greater than the effects of Hurricane Bonnie in 1998. Fortunately, Hurricane Irene in mid-October did not make landfall in North Carolina, but rainfall from the storm did help ensure that several rivers in eastern North Carolina remained above flood stage for almost 2 months.

North Carolina↗
USGS1991

Large-scale coastal evolution of Louisiana's barrier islands

The prediction of large-scale coastal change is an extremely important, but distant goal. Here we describe some of our initial efforts in this direction, using historical bathymetric information along a 150 km reach of the rapidly evolving barrier island coast of Louisiana. Preliminary results suggest that the relative sea level rise rate, though extremely high in the area, has played a secondary role in coastal erosion over the last 100 years, with longshore transport of sand-sized sediment being the primary cause. Prediction of future conditions is hampered by a general lack of erosion processes understanding; however, an examination of the changing volumes of sand stored in a large ebb-tidal delta system suggests a continued high rate of shoreline retreat driven by the longshore re-distribution of sand.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1985

ON PREDICTING INFRAGRAVITY ENERGY IN THE SURF ZONE.

Flow data were obtained in the surf zone across a barred profile during a storm. RMS cross-shore velocities due to waves in the intragravity band (wave periods greater than 20 s) had maxima in excess of 0. 5 m/s over the bar crest. For comparison to measured spectra, synthetic spectra of cross-shore flow were computed using measured nearshore profiles. The structure, in the infragravity band, of these synthetic spectra corresponded reasonably well with the structure of the measured spectra. Total variances of measured cross-shore flow within the infragravity band were nondimensionalized by dividing by total infragravity variances of synthetic spectra. These nondimensional variances were independent of distance offshore and increased with the square of the breaker height. Thus, cross-shore flow due to infragravity waves can be estimated with knowledge of the nearshore profile and incident wave conditions. Refs.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1981

Swash mark and grain flow

Swash marks composed entirely of coarse sand are commonly found on coarse-sand beaches. These swash marks are 10 to 30 centimeters in width and a few millimeters to one centimeter in height. Previous observations, mostly on finer-sand beaches, indicate swash marks are seldom over a few millimeters in height and are commonly composed of material readily floated by surface tension (e.g., mica flakes and shell fragments). Swash marks composed of coarse sand have both fining seaward and fining with depth trends in grain size. Apparently, the leading margin of a wave upwash drives a highly concentrated flow of grains in which both grain size and grain velocity decrease with depth. Therefore, large grains are transported at greater velocities than are smaller grains. Thus, at the maximum advance of an upwash, a swash mark is deposited which has the observed fining seaward and fining with depth trends in grain size.

Journal of Sedimentary Petrology↗