An episode of reinflation of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California: 1989-1991
Following the episodes of inflation of the resurgent dome associated with the May 1980 earthquake sequence (four M 6 earthquakes) and the January 1983 earthquake swarm (two M 5.2 events), 7 years of frequently repeated two-color geodimeter measurements spanning the Long Valley caldera document gradually decreasing extensional strain rates from 5 ppm/yr in mid-1983, when the measurements began, to near zero in mid-1989. The corresponding seismic activity within the caldera persisted at a low rate of fewer than 10 M ≥ 1.2 earthquakes per week from 1985 through November 1989 with no events exceeding M 3.0. Early October 1989 marked a change in activity when measurements of the two-color geodimeter network showed a significant increase in extensional strain rate (9 ppm/yr) across the caldera. The seismic activity began exceeding 10 M ≥ 1.2 per week in early December 1989 and rapidly increased to a sustained level of tens of M ≥ 1.2 per week with bursts having hundreds of events per day. Many events exceeded M 3.0 and the largest event was M ≈ 4. The 1989–1991 inflation episode is the first time that we have sufficient geodetic measurements in Long Valley to define the temporal relation between onset of an inflation episode and onset of brittle failure (earthquake swarm within the caldera). Here, the onset of deformation preceded the onset of increased earthquake activity by more than 2 months. The seismicity rate began to decrease in mid-July 1990, consistent with a gradually slowing of extension across the caldera as measured by the two-color geodimeter. The recent episode of inflation can be modeled by a single Mogi point source located about 7 km beneath the center of the resurgent dome. In contrast, the deformation pattern observed between mid-1983 and mid-1989 is best reproduced by fault slip in the south moat, inflation at 6.5 km depth near Casa Diablo Hot Springs and inflation beneath the resurgent dome. It appears that the 7-km source beneath the resurgent dome that was active for the earlier episodes is the primary source for the more recent episode. The model used to satisfy the line length observations predicts 7.5 cm of uplift along leveling route along highway 395 from mid-1983 to mid-1989 and an additional 11 cm through the end of 1991. To comp are with the energy release from seismicity, the modeled inflation from late 1989 through the end of 1991 has a moment that is a factor of 40 more than the cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes located within the caldera from the same period. Thus the recent inflation episode represents a significant portion of the observed geodetic deformation with only little seismic energy release.