S.J. Cronin | USGS Science

USGS2024

Dynamics and detection of pulsed tremor at Whakaari (White Island), Aotearoa New Zealand

Volcanic tremor is a crucial indicator for assessing the state and hazard potential of volcanic systems. At Whakaari (White Island volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand), a pulsed tremor signal emerged after a hydrothermal explosion in August 2012. The tremor accompanied the extrusion of a lava dome, before gradually disappearing prior to the onset of renewed hydrothermal activity in January 2013. We interpret this seismic signal to represent discrete gas transfers from a magmatic intrusion toward a permeable cap—possibly a hydrothermal seal—in the upper layers of Whakaari's hydrothermal system. Such tremor may thus be associated with heightened potential for hazardous explosive activity but is difficult to detect using conventional seismic monitoring parameters. To highlight the emergence of subtle periodic signals, we experiment with Lomb-Scargle periodograms (LS). LS detect the tremor 5 days before it becomes visible in seismograms, thus facilitating the recognition of such elusive seismic patterns.

Whakaari (White Island)↗

USGS2023

Identification of seismo-volcanic regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) via systematic tuning of an unsupervised classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes.

Whakaari, White Island↗