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Geology topics

S.B. Bozkurt

Publications and source records attributed to S.B. Bozkurt.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

A slab fragment wedged under Tokyo and its tectonic and seismic implications

The Philippine Sea and Pacific plate slabs both subduct beneath Tokyo, and so their configuration and seismic potential have been subject to intensive study . Previous work suggests that the Philippine Sea slab extends up to 100 km northwest of Tokyo and subducts to a depth of 90 km beneath the Kanto basin, where it is folded against the underlying Pacific slab. Here we evaluate seismic data in three dimensions and delineate a distinct 25-km-thick and 100-km-wide body beneath the Kanto basin that has hitherto been considered to be part of the Philippine Sea slab. We find that several of its characteristics—such as its high seismic velocity and the presence of a double seismic zone—point instead to an affinity with the Pacific slab, implying that the Philippine Sea slab penetrates to depths of only 35–40 km beneath the Kanto basin. We propose that the body is a fragment of Pacific lithosphere that formed by the collision of two intersecting seamount chains with the Japan Trench 2–3 million years ago. We suggest that such slab fragments may not be uncommon, especially where seamount subduction deforms trenches and near triple junctions.

Tokyo, Japan Trench

Forecasting probabilistic seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations

The long recorded history of earthquakes in Japan affords an opportunity to forecast seismic shaking exclusively from past shaking. We calculate the time-averaged (Poisson) probability of severe shaking by using more than 10,000 intensity observations recorded since AD 1600 in a 350 km-wide box centered on Tokyo. Unlike other hazard-assessment methods, source and site effects are included without modeling, and we do not need to know the size or location of any earthquake nor the location and slip rate of any fault. The two key assumptions are that the slope of the observed frequency-intensity relation at every site is the same, and that the 400-year record is long enough to encompass the full range of seismic behavior. Tests we conduct here suggest that both assumptions are sound. The resulting 30-year probability of IJMA ??? 6 shaking (??? PGA ??? 0.4 g or MMI ??? IX) is 30%-40% in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama, and 10% 15% in Chiba and Tsukuba. This result means that there is a 30% chance that 4 million people will be subjected to IJMA ??? 6 shaking during an average 30-year period. We also produce exceedance maps of PGA for building-code regulations, and calculate short-term hazard associated with a hypothetical catastrophe bond. Our results resemble an independent assessment developed from conventional seismic hazard analysis for greater Tokyo. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra