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S. W. Hostetler

Publications and source records attributed to S. W. Hostetler.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1997

Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: The basin and range, American Southwest and Mexico

Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS1997

Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2–3-month ‘spring runoff’ period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10–100 times mean low flow.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS1997

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS1995

Effects of a 2 x CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by 3 1 2 "> 312 years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO 2 experiments (2 × CO 2 ) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4. Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO 2 climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO 2 climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr −1 in the control to 1595 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr −1 in the control to +27 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation due to increased precipitation. For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO 2 climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO 2 climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO 2 climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr −1 to 600 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr −1 in the control to +619 mm yr −1 due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.

Nevada, Wyoming↗
USGS1995

Two-year simulation of the Great Lakes region with a coupled modeling system

In this paper, we report on an experiment aimed at evaluating the feasibility of the application of our coupled regional climate modeling system to long-term climate simulations over the Great Lakes region. The simulation analyzed covers a continuous 24-month period beginning 1 September 1990 and extending to 1 September 1992. Many aspects of this simulation agreed well with observations. Compared with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, area-averaged atmospheric temperature and moisture biases were generally small. The largest temperature biases were found in the simulated boundary layer, up to 1–1.5 K colder than observed in most months. Atmospheric moisture biases were of both signs and small in magnitude, almost universally less than 0.5 g kg −1 . Comparison of simulated surface air temperatures with station observations also indicated that model simulated temperatures generally display a cold bias. Simulated precipitation values agreed well with observations during the cold portions of the year while during warm months precipitation was overpredicted by 10%–50%. Spatial patterns of precipitation over the model domain agreed well with observations during the winter months but were not as well simulated during the other seasons. A one-dimensional lake model was coupled to the atmospheric component of the model to capture the effects of the Great Lakes on regional climate. Lake surface temperatures were generally well simulated by the lake model in the summer and fall seasons, and lake ice extent agreed well with the analysis over at least three of the five lakes. The greatest shortcomings in lake temperature simulation were the earlier-than-observed warm-up in the spring and warmer than observed peak temperatures in the summer over the northern portions of the lakes. Also, lake ice extent was generally overpredicted over Lake Superior and underpredicted over Lake Erie. In summary, the coupled modeling system described in this paper shows promise for use in climate simulators over regions where lakes are important such as the Great Lakes. It has been shown that many aspects of the simulation are in good agreement with available observations. Areas in which the results point to the need for further work are the model's convective parameterization, the eddy diffusivities in the lake model, and the treatment of clouds in the radiation package.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗
USGS1994

Lake-atmosphere feedbacks associated with paleolakes Bonneville and Lahontan

A high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model was used to study the interactions between the atmosphere and the large Pleistocene lakes in the Great Basin of the United States. Simulations for January and July 18,000 years ago indicate that moisture provided by synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation features was the primary component of the hydrologic budgets of Lakes Lahontan and Bonneville. In addition, lake-generated precipitation was a substantial component of the hydrologic budget of Lake Bonneville at that time. This local lake-atmosphere interaction may help explain differences in the relative sizes of these lakes 18,000 years ago.

Great Basin↗
USGS1992

Use of a regional atmospheric model to simulate lake-atmosphere feedbacks associated with Pleistocene Lakes Lahontan and Bonneville

A regional model of the atmosphere (version 4 of the NCAR mesoscale model, MM4) was used to assess whether lake-effect precipitation was a significant component of the late-Pleistocene hydrologic budgets of Lakes Lahontan and Bonneville. Control simulations for January and July of 1979 were made using MM4, and the Pleistocene highstand surface areas of the lakes were added to the model and the simulations repeated. In the January simulations, 18% of the moisture added to the modeled atmosphere by Lake Lahontan returned to the Lahontan basin as precipitation, while 32% of the water evaporated from Lake Bonneville fell as precipitation over the Bonneville basin. In the July simulations, 7% of the moisture added to the modeled atmosphere by Lake Lahontan returned to the Lahontan basin as precipitation, and 4% of the water evaporated from Lake Bonneville fell as precipitation over the Bonneville basin. An additonal January simulation was made with the lake surface areas set at onehalf their highstand extents (the average surface area 20 to 15 ka BP). Results from this simulation were similar to the simulation with the highstand lakes, indicating lake-effect precipitation could have been a significant component of the hyrologic budgets of the lakes before and during the highstand period. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS1991

Simulation of lake ice and its effect on the late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan

A model of lake ice was coupled with a model of lake temperature and evaporation to assess the possible effect of ice cover on the late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan. The simulations were done using a data set based on proxy temperature indicators and features of the simulated late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation over western North America. When a data set based on a mean-annual air temperature of 3?? C (7?? C colder than present) and reduced solar radiation from jet-stream induced cloud cover was used as input to the model, ice cover lasting ??? 4 months was simulated. Simulated evaporation rates (490-527 mm a-1) were ??? 60% lower than the present-day evaporation rate (1300 mm a-1) of Pyramid Lake. With this reduced rate of evaporation, water inputs similar to the 1983 historical maxima that occurred in the Lahontan basin would have been sufficient to maintain the 13.5 ka BP high stand of Lake Lahontan. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

Climate Dynamics↗