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Ryan Oprea

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan Oprea.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Preemption games: theory and experiment

El Mutún, perhaps the world's largest remaining iron ore deposit, was opened to private investors in the 1980s but, due to the high cost of developing the remote Bolivian site, there were no takers for two decades. In late 2005, spurred by rising commodity prices, the Brazilian company EBX finally seized the opportunity, preempting rivals based in China and India. Numerous similar examples can be found in the annals of mining and oil companies (Raymond F. Mikesell et al. 1971).

American Economic Review↗

Learning to wait: A laboratory investigation

Human subjects decide when to sink a fixed cost C to seize an irreversible investment opportunity whose value V is governed by Brownian motion. The optimal policy is to invest when V first crosses a threshold V* = (1 + w*) C, where the wait option premium w* depends on drift, volatility, and expiration hazard parameters. Subjects in the Low w* treatment on average invest at values quite close to optimum. Subjects in the two Medium and the High w* treatments invested at values below optimum, but with the predicted ordering, and values approached the optimum by the last block of 20 periods.

Review of Economic Studies↗