Geology topics

Russell W. Perry

Publications and source records attributed to Russell W. Perry.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Simulating post-dam removal effects of hatchery operations and disease on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Lower Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been considering the approval to breach four dams on lower Klamath River in southern Oregon and northern California. Approval of this application would allow for Strikeouts indicate text deletion hereafter. decommissioning and dam removal, beginning as early as 2023. This action would affect Klamath River salmon ( Oncorhynchus ssp.) populations, a critical food source for federally endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales ( Orcinus orca ). In the long run, reintroduction of salmon populations to the upper Klamath River Basin may increase salmon abundance available to Southern Resident Killer Whales, but in the near term, it is uncertain how changes in hatchery management and disease-caused mortality by the myxosporean parasite Ceratonova shasta will influence abundance of salmon populations entering the ocean. To assess this uncertainty, we used the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to simulate population dynamics of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) for nine different population sources that rear and migrate through the Klamath River. S3 is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time-step and simulates daily growth, survival, and movement of juvenile Chinook salmon from the time of spawning through ocean entry. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a C. shasta disease submodel; (2) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model that calculates daily growth rates; (3) size-dependent movement; (4) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (5) habitat, river flow, and water temperature specific to each scenario. We constructed and ran four scenarios: two scenarios for dams in place (Dams In) and dams removed (Dams Out), and given these dam-removal conditions, a low- and high-spore scenario for C. shasta . Each scenario was run for nine water years representing a range of conditions from dry to wet. Previously published daily river flows and water temperatures for Dams In and Dams Out provided physical inputs for each scenario. Daily spore concentrations were simulated using a three-part mechanistic model that used river discharge, water temperature, and the prevalence of infection (POI) of hatchery-origin Chinook salmon juveniles with C. shasta in the previous year 3 . We constructed two spore scenarios for each Dams In and Dams Out scenario, a “Low Spore” scenario and a “High Spore” scenario resulting in four scenarios for comparison. Spore scenarios were established by setting the prior-year POI of hatchery fish to 0.15 and 0.75 in the estimation of spore concentrations. Hatchery releases under Dams Out differed from those under the current Dams In scenario. Hatchery releases under the Dams Out scenario were modified to emulate changes in hatchery production that would occur under Dams Out conditions. This included moving hatchery production and releases from Iron Gate Dam to a proposed hatchery at Fall Creek, which would be located about 11 kilometers (km) upstream of Iron Gate Dam. It is anticipated that the Fall Creek hatchery would produce fewer fish at smaller and larger sizes at different release timings. For salmon inputs, we used observed historical abundance of main-stem spawners from brood year 2009 and juvenile salmon entering from tributaries in water year 2010, which represented an average return year for the 2005–18 period. Main-stem spawning was allowed to shift upstream from Iron Gate Dam under the Dams Out scenario. We also included hatchery-origin fish as natural spawners that would have otherwise returned to Iron Gate Hatchery in the first 3 years following dam removal. The S3 model simulated considerably higher total abundance for Dams Out relative to the respective Dams In scenarios, and higher abundance for the Low Spore scenario relative to the High Spore scenario. The difference in abundance between the four combinations of the dam-removal and spore scenarios varied among population groups. For main-stem natural production, juvenile abundance at ocean entry was 2–3 times higher for Dams Out scenarios than for Dams In scenarios, and juvenile abundance for High Spore scenarios was lower than that for the Dams Out Low Spores scenario. For hatchery releases, abundance at ocean entry was similar between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios for most water years, despite lower release sizes from Fall Creek Hatchery under Dams Out. For tributary populations, abundance for the High Spore scenarios was consistently lower than for the Low Spore scenarios, but differences between dam-removal scenarios varied among water years, with Dams Out scenarios having similar or higher abundance than Dams In scenarios, and dry water years having the largest difference between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios. We determined that different factors affected the response of each population group. For main-stem natural production, survival from fry emergence to ocean entry was higher under Dams Out scenarios compared to Dams In scenarios because juveniles emerged later and tended to arrive at the ocean sooner and at larger sizes, causing the population to have less time-dependent in-river mortality. Owing to their late release timing, hatchery populations had high disease-caused mortality in Dams In and Dams Out High Spore scenarios. Furthermore, a high proportion of infected fish (those that would be expected to die at some future point) survived to the ocean. Iron Gate Hatchery fish had lower survival rates than releases from Fall Creek Hatchery because the last mid-June release group from the 2010 Iron Gate Hatchery release incurred nearly total mortality in most water years owing to water temperatures exceeding 24 degrees Celsius. Our analysis shows how the S3 model was able to track different populations and provide insights on how the differential response of each population combined to influence the simulated number of juvenile Chinook salmon arriving at the Pacific Ocean where they become available as a food source for Southern Resident Killer Whales.

California↗

USGS2023

Simulating the migration dynamics of juvenile salmonids through rivers and estuaries using a hydrodynamically driven enhanced particle tracking model

Juvenile salmonids migrate hundreds of kilometers from their natal streams to mature in the ocean. Throughout this migration, they respond to environmental cues such as local water velocities and other stimuli to direct and modulate their movements, often through heavily modified riverine and estuarine habitats. Management strategies in an uncertain future of climate change and altered land use regimes depend heavily on being able to reliably predict their ocean entry timings, route use, and survival rates through rivers and estuaries. We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model of fish movement in response to hydrodynamic flows that uses movement dynamics gleaned from multi-dimensional tracking datasets of acoustically tagged juveniles moving through an urbanized, branched tidal estuary. We demonstrate how such models can be calibrated, and we apply it to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in Central California. The quality of the out-of-sample validation of the model to predict juvenile salmon survival and route selection indicates that the model is versatile and flexible enough to be used in novel hydroclimatological conditions.

California↗

USGS2022

Assessing the efficacy of using a parentage-based tagging survival model to evaluate two sources of mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon

We conducted a study to assess the efficacy of using a parentage-based tagging survival model (PBT N-mixture model) to evaluate two sources of mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon. The model was originally developed to evaluate reservoir mortality because of predation from piscivorous fish. However, recent studies have also found that juvenile Chinook salmon experience high infection rates from parasitic copepods ( Salmincola californiensis ), which are known to negatively affect performance and survival. Our study was conducted to determine if the PBT N-mixture model could separately estimate mortality because of predation from non-native fish and mortality resulting from copepod infection. This assessment was conducted in two parts: (1) data collected in Lookout Point Reservoir during 2018 were re-analyzed; and (2) a simulation was conducted to evaluate a multi-year study that included inter-annual variation in copepod infection rate and two subsampling strategies (10 fish per month, 30 fish per month) to characterize monthly copepod infection rate. Results from each of these efforts suggest that the survival model is unlikely to provide reliable survival estimates for the two mortality sources that we evaluated. The re-analysis of 2018 data showed that “predation only” and “copepod only” models estimated a negative coefficient for the respective covariate, but the model that included both covariates provided coefficient estimates that differed from the other models and were highly uncertain. Similarly, the simulation results showed that most models failed to correctly estimate the magnitude and direction of mortality due to predation and copepods. These results suggest that additional data will be required if a model is desired that can separately estimate mortality effects due to both predation and copepods in the future. The existing data are limited by factors including low detection probabilities from previous field studies, existing uncertainties about copepod effects on mortality in a natural setting and expected limitations in the number of years that a field study could realistically be expected to receive funding.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Juvenile green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) movement during autumn and winter in the lower Sacramento River, California, 2016–20

A collaborative acoustic telemetry study was conducted to describe behavior and movement patterns of juvenile green sturgeon ( Acipenser medirostris ) in the lower Sacramento River, California during 2016–19. For the study, juvenile green sturgeon were collected, tagged, and released in the Sacramento River between river kilometer (rkm) 467 and rkm 419 near Red Bluff, California. Telemetry monitoring sites were located between rkm 464 and rkm 1 to detect tagged fish that moved downstream. In this report, we describe movement patterns of juvenile green sturgeon in the lower Sacramento River between rkm 167 and rkm 52. In total, 98 juvenile green sturgeon were tagged and released during the study and 46 of these fish moved downstream and were detected in the lower Sacramento River. Downstream movement appeared to be associated with periods of increasing river flow, and the greatest percentage of tagged fish were detected moving downstream during the first period of increased streamflow each autumn. The number of tagged fish that were detected decreased in lower reaches of the study area, but it’s not clear if this was because fish experienced mortality while moving downstream, stopped moving downstream to rear in study reaches, or their transmitters stopped working due to battery life limitations. We did find that several fish were detected moving upstream between telemetry monitoring sites in the lower reaches of the study area. This study provides new insights into movement patterns and behavior of juvenile green sturgeon in the lower Sacramento River, but additional research will be required to better understand factors such as survival and how fish respond to estuarine conditions.

California↗

USGS2022

Extending the Stream Salmonid Simulator to accommodate the life history of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Klamath River Basin, Northern California

In this report, we apply the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in the Klamath River Basin by extending the original model to account for life history and disease dynamics specific to coho salmon. This version of S3 includes tracking of three separate life-history strategies representing the different time periods and ages at which fish leave natal tributaries such as the Scott and Shasta Rivers (age-0 spring, age-0 fall, or age-1 smolt). Once fish leave their natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River, the deterministic life-stage-structured population model simulates daily growth, movement, and survival. We extend the model to include non-natal tributary dynamics, where spring age-0 fish entry to non-natal tributaries is simulated based on environmental conditions in the main-stem Klamath River. Fish that use non-natal tributaries then reenter the Klamath River during the winter or spring as smolts and actively migrate downstream. We also consider the life history strategy where fish rear in natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River as age-1 smolts. In addition to simulating different life history pathways that coho salmon may take, we model disease dynamics, incorporating new information on Ceratonova shasta related infection and mortality. We incorporate competitive interactions between juvenile coho and Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) by simulating density-dependent movement dynamics in response to Chinook salmon abundance. Model simulations suggest that total abundance and survival to the ocean differed between life-history strategies. In general, spring age-0 fish that leave their natal tributaries in their first spring had lower survival compared with fish that remained in natal tributaries and out-migrated later. Spring age-0 fish also had higher disease related mortality, owing to their residence in the main-stem Klamath River overlapping with periods of elevated C. shasta spore concentrations. Age-0 fish leaving their natal tributaries in the fall had near-zero disease related mortality. Most non-natal tributary use occurred at upstream tributary locations and was variable between the brood years depending on passage timing and environmental conditions. The inclusion of Chinook salmon in simulations resulted in decreased abundance and survival of Coho salmon reaching the ocean. In addition, we developed an R package to facilitate use of and continued development of S3 as a tool to guide management of juvenile salmonid populations.

California↗

USGS2022

Factors affecting spatiotemporal variation in survival of endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon outmigrating from the Sacramento River

Among four extant and declining Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) runs in California’s Central Valley, none have declined as precipitously as Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon. In addition to habitat loss, migratory winter-run employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats on their way from freshwaters to the ocean. This life history strategy is widely considered to be a key factor in the continued decline of winter-run. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined conditions that influenced reach-specific movement and survival of outmigrating juveniles during a prolonged, multi-year drought from 2013-2016, followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2017. We modeled how time-varying individual riverine covariates and reach-specific habitat features influenced smolt survival. Model selection favored a model with mean annual flow, intra-annual deviations from the mean flow at the reach scale, reach-specific channel characteristics, and travel time. Mean annual flow had the strongest positive effect on survival. A negative interaction between mean annual flow and intra-annual reach flow indicated that within-year deviations at the reach scale from annual mean flow had larger effects on survival in low flow years. These factors resulted in higher survival in years with pulse flows or high flows. Changes in movement behavior in response to small scale changes in velocity were negatively associated with survival. Covariates of revetment and wooded bank habitat were positively associated with survival but the effect of these fixed habitat features changed depending on whether they were situated in the upper or lower part of the river. Fish exhibited density dependent stopover behavior, with slowed downstream migration in the upper river in the wet years and extending to the lower river in the most critically dry year. This paper contributes two key findings for natural resource managers interested in flow management and targeted habitat restoration. The first is new insight to how the magnitude of pulse flows in dry and wet years affect survival of winter-run. The second is that density dependence influences where stopover habitat is used. Despite this, we identified an area of the river where fish consistently exhibited stopover behavior in all years.

California↗

USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗

USGS2021

Synthesis of habitat availability and carrying capacity research to support water management decisions and enhance conditions for Pacific salmon in the Willamette River, Oregon

Flow management is complex in the Willamette River Basin where the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers owns and operates a system of 13 dams and reservoirs (hereinafter Willamette Project), which are spread throughout three large tributaries including the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, and Santiam Rivers. The primary purpose of the Willamette Project is flood-risk management, which provides critical protection to the Willamette Valley, but flow managers must also consider factors such as power generation, water-quality improvement, irrigation, recreation, and protection for aquatic species such as U.S. Endangered Species Act-listed Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ). Flow-management decision-making in the basin can benefit from models that allow for flow-scenario comparisons and a wide range of modeling methods are available. For this study, we examined existing datasets and modeling efforts in the basin and provided an overview of available options. Most previous studies used Physical Habitat Simulation System, habitat data were collected from a series of transects within modeled reaches, and habitat suitability indices were obtained from the literature, or using expert opinion. These studies provide information for specific reaches of the Willamette River Basin, which limits their ability to provide broad-scale predictive capability. Recent efforts to develop a two-dimensional hydraulic model in the mainstem Willamette River, and in specific reaches of primary tributaries downstream from Project dams, have bolstered modeling capabilities in the basin. This work has developed spatially continuous water depth and velocity data in more than 250 kilometers (km) of river downstream from Project dams and has predictive capability throughout the year at flows up to normal peak levels. Additionally, other methods are described for estimating habitat availability, which include habitat suitability criteria, logistic regression, occupancy and abundance modeling, and energetic based approaches. There are strengths and weaknesses to each approach and selection of the preferred approach in the Willamette River Basin will depend on the desired metrics of interest and the risk tolerance of managers and stakeholders in the basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Evaluation of movement and survival of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Klickitat River, Washington, 2018–2019

A 2-year telemetry study was conducted April–July in 2018 and 2019 to evaluate migration behavior and survival of juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) in the Klickitat River, Washington. A total of 612 natural-origin steelhead, collected in a smolt trap on the Klickitat River, were tagged, released, and monitored as they outmigrated through the lower 17 kilometers (km) of the Klickitat River, and in the 52 km reach between the mouth of the Klickitat River and Bonneville Dam. The primary goal of the steelhead study was to estimate survival through the Klickitat River delta, the 2 km reach located at the confluence of the Klickitat and Columbia rivers. A total of 400 hatchery-origin coho salmon were tagged and released at the Klickitat Hatchery and monitored during migration through the lower 68 km of the Klickitat River and in the Columbia River to Bonneville Dam. The primary goals of the coho salmon study were (1) to estimate survival through the Klickitat River delta and (2) to determine residence time in the Klickitat River to assess potential for interactions with rearing natural-origin fish. Many tagged steelhead and coho salmon moved quickly downstream and left the Klickitat River shortly after release. Median elapsed time from release to Klickitat River exit ranged from 1.4 to 1.5 days for steelhead, and from 5.1 to 12.9 days for coho salmon during the two-year study. Ten percent of the tagged coho salmon in 2018 remained in the Klickitat River for 21.9–29.2 days before entering the Columbia River. In 2019, ten percent of the tagged coho salmon remained in the Klickitat River for 36.0–45.5 days before entering the Columbia River. This suggests that some hatchery fish spend considerable time in the river after hatchery release. Migration rates were consistently slow for both species in the Klickitat River delta compared to upstream reaches of the free-flowing Klickitat River and downstream reaches of the Columbia River. Similarly, reach-specific survival was highest in free-flowing reaches of the Klickitat River and lowest near the Klickitat River delta. Cumulative survival from release to sites located downstream of the Klickitat River delta were 0.78 for juvenile steelhead in both 2018 and 2019, and 0.57 and 0.61 for juvenile coho salmon in 2018 and 2019. Standardized survival estimates (survival per 100 river kilometers) were 0.243 in 2018 and 0.302 in 2019 for steelhead, and 0.100 in 2018 and 0.153 in 2019 for coho salmon. These estimates of standardized survival are low compared to similar estimates from other rivers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and California. This study provided new information about survival and residence time of juvenile steelhead and coho salmon in the Klickitat River. Additional studies would be helpful to understand factors affecting outmigration survival and overlap between hatchery-origin and natural-original juvenile steelhead and coho salmon in the system.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Dynamics of endangered sucker populations in Clear Lake Reservoir, California

Executive Summary In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey began a consistent monitoring program for endangered Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, in fall 2004. The program was intended to improve understanding of the Clear Lake Reservoir populations because they are important to recovery efforts for these species. We report results from the ongoing program and include sampling efforts through fall 2019. We summarize catches and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging efforts from trammel net sampling in the fall seasons (September–October each year) and detections of PIT-tagged suckers on remote antennas in the spring in each year from 2006 to 2019. We also combine the data from physical captures and remote detections in capture-recapture models to provide estimates of annual survival for suckers in the reservoir. A lack of genetic distinctiveness between shortnose suckers and Klamath largescale suckers ( Catostomus snyderi ) in the Lost River subbasin, including Clear Lake Reservoir, is a likely cause of past difficulty in identification of these species. Field identification can be subjective for many captured individuals, and very few individuals were identified as Klamath largescale suckers in the most recent years of our monitoring program. For this report, we combine individuals that were identified as either shortnose sucker (SNS) or Klamath largescale sucker (KLS) into a single “SNS-KLS” group for most analyses. Identification of Lost River suckers (LRS) is based on external morphological characteristics.

California↗

USGS2021

Evaluating fish rescue as a drought adaptation strategy using a life cycle modeling approach for imperiled coho salmon

Projected intensification of drought as a result of climate change may reduce the capacity of streams to rear fish, exacerbating the challenge of recovering salmonid populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Without management intervention, some stocks will likely go extinct as stream drying and fragmentation reduce juvenile survival to unsustainable levels. To offset drought‐related mortality, fish rescue programs have proliferated, whereby juvenile salmonids are captured and transferred to off‐site rearing facilities. However, the efficacy of this potential conservation tool remains poorly understood. We developed a life cycle model to examine the implications of fish rescue on the abundance of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch across serial life stages. The simulation model examines scenarios with varying quantities of rescued fish, time in captivity, drought severity, and reduced smolt‐to‐adult return rates. Our results indicate that fish rescue can increase the abundance of adults and lower extinction risk, particularly for fish held in captivity for a full year. However, fish rescue can also decrease the abundance of adults and increase extinction risk if fish are held only for summer and there is limited winter habitat. We found that when fish rescue did increase returns, it functioned more like a stock enhancement program than a drought mitigation tool and it would likely lead to consecutive generations of captive rearing, which has been shown to have negative effects on fitness. We translated our model into an R Shiny application ( https://shiny.wdfw‐fish.us/CohoPopulationDynamics/ ) that allows users to explore how fish rescue affects Coho Salmon population dynamics through customized parameterization of the model to represent different systems or different assumptions about the effects of fish rescue.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Development of a two-stage life cycle model for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington

Recovery of salmon populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin depends on trap-and-haul efforts owing to impassable dams. Therefore, successful recovery depends on the collection of out-migrating juvenile salmon at Cowlitz Falls Dam (CFD) for transport below downstream dams, as well as the collection of adults for transport upstream from the dams. Tacoma Power began downstream fish collection efforts at CFD in the mid-1990s and has been working consistently since then to improve collection efficiency to support self-sustaining salmon and steelhead ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Although much work has focused on estimating fish collection efficiency (FCE), there has been relatively little focus on modeling population dynamics to understand how fish collection efficiency and other factors drive production of both juvenile and adult salmon over their life cycle. As a first step towards understanding the factors affecting population dynamics of Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, we developed a statistical life cycle model using adult escapement and age structure data, juvenile collection data, and juvenile fish collection efficiency estimates. The goal of the statistical life cycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: the freshwater production from escapement of adults upstream from CFD to collection of juveniles at CFD, and the juvenile-to-adult survival from the time of collection at the dam to the return of adults. To structure the life cycle model, we used the Ricker stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of parent spawners. This approach allowed us to account for density dependence at high spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. We then expressed productivity as a function two key variables affecting the number of juveniles collected and transported at CFD: (1) annual FCE, and (2) the annual number of days that spill occurred at CFD from September 1 to April 30. Our key findings were as follows: FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon upstream from CFD because FCE affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration; Juvenile-to-adult return (JAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 3.6 percent and ranging as high as 9.1 percent, suggesting that adult coho salmon may be able to return to CFD at sustainable population sizes; and Much variation in the estimates of juvenile fish production upriver of CFD was unexplained even after adult escapement and FCE were accounted for, suggesting that the model may be improved by exploring different covariates and model structures for juvenile production as well as JAR rates. Additionally, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 108.4 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river compared to the ocean environment and fish life stages, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at CFD may have on the recovery and sustainability of coho salmon populations.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Combining models of the critical streakline and the cross-sectional distribution of juvenile salmon to predict fish routing at river junctions

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish.

California↗

USGS2019

A temporally stratified extension of space‐for‐time Cormack–Jolly–Seber for migratory animals

Understanding drivers of temporal variation in demographic parameters is a central goal of mark‐recapture analysis. To estimate the survival of migrating animal populations in migration corridors, space‐for‐time mark–recapture models employ discrete sampling locations in space to monitor marked populations as they move past monitoring sites, rather than the standard practice of using fixed sampling points in time. Because these models focus on estimating survival over discrete spatial segments, model parameters are implicitly integrated over the temporal dimension. Furthermore, modeling the effect of time‐varying covariates on model parameters is complicated by unknown passage times for individuals that are not detected at monitoring sites. To overcome these limitations, we extended the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) framework to estimate temporally stratified survival and capture probabilities by including a discretized arrival time process in a Bayesian framework. We allow for flexibility in the model form by including temporally stratified covariates and hierarchical structures. In addition, we provide tools for assessing model fit and comparing among alternative structural models for the parameters. We demonstrate our framework by fitting three competing models to estimate daily survival, capture, and arrival probabilities at four hydroelectric dams for over 200 000 individually tagged migratory juvenile salmon released into the Snake River, USA.

Biometrics↗

USGS2019

Using the STARS Model to evaluate the effects of two proposed projects for the long-term operation of State Water Project Incidental Take Permit Application and CEQA compliance

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) requested analysis of juvenile Chinook salmon survival in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (henceforth identified as “the Delta”) as part of an effects analysis that will be included in an Incidental Take Permit (ITP) Application. This application is in compliance with the California Endangered Species Act (CESA) and Environmental Impact Report (EIR), which is itself in compliance with California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). DWR is seeking an ITP and preparing CEQA compliance documentation for long-term operation of the State Water Project (SWP). DWR requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey to aid in determining the effect of two proposed projects on juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) populations migrating through the Delta. Therefore, in this report we analyzed an 82-year time series of simulated river flows and Delta Cross Channel (DCC) gate operations under three scenarios constructed for the ITP: the proposed project (PP), the second proposed project (PP2b) and the existing (EX) scenarios. To evaluate the proposed projects (PP and PP2b), we used the STARS model (Survival, Travel time, And Routing Simulation model), a stochastic, individual-based simulation model designed to predict survival of a cohort of fish that experience variable daily river flows during migration through the Delta. The STARS model uses parameter estimates from a Bayesian mark-recapture model that jointly estimates travel time and survival in eight discrete reaches of the Delta and migration routing at two key river junctions. By applying the STARS model to the three 82-year scenarios, we found that both proposed projects had negative effects on survival, travel time, and routing in November but slightly positive effects in October, December, and May, and in June for only the PP. In November, there was a high probability that survival for PP and PP2b were less than EX and that travel time and routing to the Interior Delta for PP and PP2b were greater than for EX. We found that the magnitude of the difference in survival between scenarios was large in some years. For example, survival under both the PP and PP2b scenarios were 10 percent lower than EX in 25 percent of the water years in November. During this period, inflow to the Delta tended to be lower under the PP and PP2b scenarios, and the DCC gate was open more frequently under the PP and PP2b scenarios relative to the EX scenario. Lower inflow reduces survival, and more frequent operation of the DCC gate 1) increases the proportion of fish entering the Interior Delta, where survival is low, and thus 2) reduces survival in the Sacramento River in reaches downstream of the DCC. In contrast, during October, December, May (both PP and PP2b), and June (PP only), survival was slightly higher, travel times were lower, and routing to the Interior Delta was lower under the PP and PP2b relative to the EX scenario in the same time period, although the magnitude of the increase was relatively small in most years (less than two percent). This difference between scenarios was driven by higher river flows in some years under the PP and PP2b relative to the EX scenario. Overall, the differences in survival, travel time, and routing distance between the three operational scenarios were primarily driven by the timing and magnitude of the annual high river flows.

California↗

USGS2019

Using the STARS model to evaluate the effects of the proposed action for the reinitiation of consultation on the coordinated long-term operation of the Central Valley and State Water Project

In 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and California Department of Water Resources requested a reinitiation of consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act on the coordinated long-term operations of the Central Valley and State Water Projects. This resulted in a Biological Assessment released by USBR in 2019. In its analysis of the Biological Assessment for its Biological Opinion on the proposed action, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey to describe the effect of the proposed action on juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) populations migrating through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (henceforth called “the Delta”). Therefore, in this report we analyzed an 82-year time series of simulated river flows and Delta Cross Channel (DCC) gate operations under two scenarios constructed for the Biological Assessment: the proposed-action (PA) scenario and the continuing-operations scenario (COS). To evaluate the proposed action, we used the STARS model ( S urvival, T ravel time, A nd R outing S imulation model), a stochastic, individual-based simulation model designed to predict survival of a cohort of fish that experiences variable daily river flows as the fish migrate through the Delta. The STARS model uses parameter estimates from a Bayesian mark-recapture model that jointly estimates travel time and survival in eight discrete reaches of the Delta and migration routing at two key river junctions. By applying the STARS model to the two 82-year scenarios, we found that the proposed action had negative effects on survival, travel time, and routing in October–December but positive effects in April–June. In October–December, there was a high probability that survival in the PA scenario was less than that in the COS, and that travel time and routing to the Interior Delta for the PA scenario was greater than that for the COS. The magnitude of the difference in survival between scenarios was larger in some years than in others. For example, we quantified that survival under the PA scenario was 10 percent lower than under the COS in 25 percent of the water years from October through December. During this period, inflow to the Delta tended to be lower under the PA scenario, and the DCC gate was open more frequently under the PA scenario than during the COS. Lower inflow reduces survival, and more frequent operation of the DCC gate 1) increases the proportion of fish entering the Interior Delta, where survival is low, and thus 2) reduces survival in the Sacramento River in reaches downstream of the DCC. In contrast, during the period April–June, survival was higher, travel times were lower, and routing to the Interior Delta was lower under the PA scenario relative to the COS, although the magnitude of the increase in survival was relatively small in most years (less than a 3-percent difference in survival). This difference between scenarios was driven by higher river flows in some years under the PA scenario relative to the COS. Overall, the differences in survival, travel time, and routing distance between the two operational scenarios were primarily driven by the timing and magnitude of the annual high river flows.

California↗

USGS2019

Using the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to assess juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production under historical and proposed action flows in the Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The production of Klamath River fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in northern California and southern Oregon is thought to be limited by poor survival during freshwater juvenile life stages, in part a result of Ceratonova shasta —a highly infectious disease that can lead to high fish mortality. Higher flushing river flows are thought to affect the concentration of C. shasta spores, and in turn, juvenile salmon infection and mortality. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model was built to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon from spawning through migration to the Pacific Ocean in response to river flow, habitat availability, water temperature, and C. shasta spore concentrations. The S3 model has been calibrated to juvenile fall Chinook salmon abundances at a trap site within the Klamath River, and was specifically designed to provide objective predictions of juvenile salmon abundance and survival in relation to proposed flow management alternatives and resulting fish infection and mortality by C. shasta . Infection by C. shasta in the Klamath River is location specific, occurring in a “disease zone” with high spore concentrations. The spatial extent of this disease zone (from river kilometer 289.6 to 212.9) has been incorporated in the S3 model for the Klamath River, enabling the assessment of disease effects on fish at specific spatial locations such as the trap sampling sites, and for fish that were or were not exposed to the disease zone as they emigrate the Klamath River to the Pacific Ocean. Given the information gained from field observations on spore concentrations in relation to river flow, deliberations by resource managers resulted in the incorporation of springtime flushing flows in a Proposed Action (PA) scenario developed in part to lower spore concentrations within the disease zone. A Historical (HI) scenario based on the observed flows, temperatures, and spore concentrations from 2004 to 2016 was used to compare and contrast the potential benefits to juvenile salmon from PA flows in relation to the HI conditions.

California↗

USGS2019

Application of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to Klamath River fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), California—Parameterization and calibration

Executive Summary In this report, we describe application of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Klamath River between Keno Dam in southern Oregon and the ocean in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. It can track different source populations or species, such as major tributary populations that enter a river like the Klamath River. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit affect survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the Klamath River was formed by classifying the river into 2,635 mesohabitat units composed of runs, riffles, and pools. This template enabled modeling of the unimpounded Klamath River between the Keno Dam (the uppermost of four dams) and Iron Gate Dam (the lowermost dam) to address dam-removal scenarios. However, in this report, our focus was on parameterizing and calibrating the model under existing conditions, which included 1,706 discrete habitat units over the 312-kilometer (km) section of river between Iron Gate Dam and the ocean. For each habitat unit, we developed a time series of daily flow, water temperature, and amount of available habitat (weighted usable habitat area [WUA]) for spawners, fry, and parr. WUA time series were constructed using habitat suitability criteria for Chinook salmon applied to eight two-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic models that represented the geomorphic variability in habitat across the Klamath River. Results from the 2-D models were then extrapolated to unmodeled habitat units by scaling WUA curves for changes in habitat unit length and width. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg development and survival and juvenile movement, growth, and survival.

California, Oregon↗