Geology topics

Ross Stein

Publications and source records attributed to Ross Stein.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

2014 M=6.0 South Napa earthquake triggered widespread aftershocks and stressed several major faults and exotic fault clusters

The strongest San Francisco Bay area earthquake since the 1989 Mw 7.0 Loma Prieta shock struck near Napa on 24 August 2014. Field mapping (Dawson et al., 2014; Earthquake Engineering Research Institute [EERI], 2014; Brocher et al., 2015) and seismic and geodetic source inversions (Barnhart et al., 2015; Dreger et al., 2015; Wei et al., 2015) indicate that a 15-km-long northwest-trending section of the West Napa Valley fault ruptured in the earthquake. Remarkably, it was the first indisputable surface rupture in the Bay area since 1906. The Napa event, along with other smaller earthquakes such as the 1980 Mw 5.8 Livermore and 1984 Mw 6.2 Morgan Hill events on the Calaveras and Hayward faults over the past 3–4 decades, may indicate that the Bay area region is emerging from the stress shadow of the 1906 Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake (Harris and Simpson, 1998; Pollitz et al., 2004). Since 1979, there has been a 140% increase in the rate of Mw≥4.1 shocks (Fig. 1) in the broader Bay area, with most concentrated in a corridor extending north from the 1989 Loma Prieta aftershock zone through the Calaveras, Greenville, Green Valley, Napa, and Rodgers Creek faults east of the San Francisco Bay (Fig. 1a). This corridor roughly coincides with the 1906 stress shadow that is being eroded away by more than a century of stress reaccumulation. The Napa event, as well as the surrounding faults on which we calculate the resulting hazard increases, all lie within this zone.

California↗

USGS2015

GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity

Global earthquake activity rate model 1 (GEAR1) estimates the rate of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes 6–9 everywhere on Earth. It was designed to be reproducible and testable. Our preferred hybrid forecast is a log–linear blend of two parent forecasts based on the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog (smoothing 4602 m≥5.767 shallow earthquakes, 1977–2004) and the Global Strain Rate Map version 2.1 (smoothing 22,415 Global Positioning System velocities), optimized to best forecast the 2005–2012 Global CMT catalog. Strain rate is a proxy for fault stress accumulation, and earthquakes indicate stress release, so a multiplicative blend is desirable, capturing the strengths of both approaches. This preferred hybrid forecast outperforms its seismicity and strain‐rate parents; the chance that this improvement stems from random seismicity fluctuations is less than 1%. The preferred hybrid is also tested against the independent parts of the International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model catalog (m≥6.8 during 1918–1976) with similar success. GEAR1 is an update of this preferred hybrid. Comparing GEAR1 to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), net earthquake rates agree within 4% at m≥5.8 and at m≥7.0. The spatial distribution of UCERF3 epicentroids most resembles GEAR1 after UCERF3 is smoothed with a 30 km kernel. Because UCERF3 has been constructed to derive useful information from fault geometry, slip rates, paleoseismic data, and enhanced seismic catalogs (not used in our model), this is encouraging. To build parametric catastrophe bonds from GEAR1, one could calculate the magnitude for which there is a 1% (or any) annual probability of occurrence in local regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Seismic hazard assessment: Honing the debate, testing the models

Four workshops held in 2013–2014 at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis brought together university, government, and insurance industry scientists from countries that straddle plate boundaries and those in plate interiors. Participants were invited; the workshops’ goals involved developing tests of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and other earthquake hazard assessment strategies and seeking viable alternatives to overcome weaknesses to these strategies.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2012

Seismicity and geometry of a 110‐km‐long blind thrust fault 1. The 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, earthquake

The August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake was the third in a sequence of moderate shocks to occur beneath the northern half of a 110‐km‐long fold chain bounding the eastern California Coast Ranges. The 1982 M W =5.4 New Idria, 1983 M W =6.5 Coalinga, and 1985 M W =6.1 Kettleman Hills events define a southward progression of seismic activity beneath the fold. We use teleseismic waveforms, geodetic modeling, hypocenters relocated in a three‐dimensional velocity model, and subsurface structural data to investigate the Kettleman Hills earthquake. The main shock results from motion on a shallowly dipping thrust fault buried at ∼10 km depth. Aftershocks and coseismic fault slip extend 20 km along the fold axis, nearly the full extent of the Kettleman Hills North Dome anticline. Aftershocks occur primarily several kilometers in front of the fault tip and in the core of the anticline. The main shock and several foreshocks occurred at a 2‐km right step in the Quaternary fold axis, which also corresponds to the southern end of the 1983 Coalinga and northern end of the 1985 Kettleman Hills aftershock zones. From this we infer that the step in the fold is caused by an offset or tear in the underlying fault. The scalar seismic moment is 1.6 × 10 18 N m, consistent with the geodetic deformation, and the duration of rupture is 16 s, 3–4 times greater than for the average earthquake with this scalar moment. The slow rate of moment release provides an explanation for the low level of ground shaking and low local magnitude reported for the event. The peak of the geodetic uplift is located 5 km perpendicular to the Quaternary fold axis. We argue that the fault is propagating northeast into the undeformed San Joaquin Valley sediments and that the overlying fold is growing at about 0.5 mm/yr.

California↗

USGS2008

A slab fragment wedged under Tokyo and its tectonic and seismic implications

The Philippine Sea and Pacific plate slabs both subduct beneath Tokyo, and so their configuration and seismic potential have been subject to intensive study . Previous work suggests that the Philippine Sea slab extends up to 100 km northwest of Tokyo and subducts to a depth of 90 km beneath the Kanto basin, where it is folded against the underlying Pacific slab. Here we evaluate seismic data in three dimensions and delineate a distinct 25-km-thick and 100-km-wide body beneath the Kanto basin that has hitherto been considered to be part of the Philippine Sea slab. We find that several of its characteristics—such as its high seismic velocity and the presence of a double seismic zone—point instead to an affinity with the Pacific slab, implying that the Philippine Sea slab penetrates to depths of only 35–40 km beneath the Kanto basin. We propose that the body is a fragment of Pacific lithosphere that formed by the collision of two intersecting seamount chains with the Japan Trench 2–3 million years ago. We suggest that such slab fragments may not be uncommon, especially where seamount subduction deforms trenches and near triple junctions.

Tokyo, Japan Trench↗