Geology topics

Rose J. Swift

Publications and source records attributed to Rose J. Swift.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Nest site and habitat changes over 15 years in a predicted climate refugium in Beluga, AK, USA, have a positive impact on Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) nest survival

Climate change is transforming the Arctic and sub-Arctic at a pace that threatens many taxa with population declines and extinction. However, some habitats–such as muskeg bogs–can serve as climatic refugia and lessen the effects of a changing climate on the species that rely on them. Hudsonian Godwits ( Limosa haemastica ) are a species of migratory shorebird that utilizes the muskeg bogs of Alaska and Canada to breed. Our study focused on a muskeg bog in Beluga, Alaska, USA to see if it had changed from 2009 to 2023, if the availability of Godwit nests sites in the bogs changed in concert, and if Godwit nest survival was affected by any of these changes. We found that, overall, the bog dried and became more vegetated, with the proportional cover of graminoids, shrubs, and forbs all increasing during our study. Godwit nest sites also changed, with the proportion of shrubs and graminoids around nests increasing over time. Nonetheless, these changes did not negatively impact Godwit nest survival. Instead, nest survival increased ~ 22% during our study period, and we observed no decline in the number of potential nests sites available to Godwits. Taken together, these results suggest that while muskeg bogs are changing, they are also currently acting as climate refugia for Godwits. However, it is unclear for how long muskeg bogs can continue to buffer Godwits and other species from the effects of climate change.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Growth, movement, and survival of precocial shorebird chicks are constrained by their environment.

Young animals are often less mobile than adults, while also having high energetic demands. They may therefore be more vulnerable to local-scale changes in environmental conditions. In particular, when 1 sex must grow more rapidly than the other to achieve a larger adult size, that sex may experience especially dramatic reductions in growth and survival in the face of suboptimal environmental conditions. In order to investigate the flexibility of individuals in response to local-scale environmental variation during development, we studied the sex-specific growth, movement, and survival of Hudsonian Godwit ( Limosa haemastica ) chicks—a sexually dimorphic, precocial shorebird that breeds in the sub-Arctic and exhibits a male-skewed adult sex ratio. We found that female chicks—which must grow to a larger adult size—reached their maximum growth rates at a later age, but had similar growth rates to males before that and survived equally well to 21 days. We also found that, irrespective of sex, chicks had reduced movement rates when they were young and/or temperatures were cold, and only weakly increased their movement rates when invertebrate abundances remained low across an entire week. Early in life, godwit chicks may therefore be constrained from increasing their foraging efforts by local environmental conditions, forcing females to sustain higher growth rates late in the season past the local resource peak. Such sex-specific vulnerabilities could lead to lower early-life survival and, in turn, skewed adult sex ratios, which have important implications for population dynamics and persistence.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2026

Extrinsic factors similarly affect nest survival of a threatened shorebird in natural and human-created habitats

Knowledge of factors that influence nest survival can inform effective conservation management for imperiled avian species. Habitat availability and quality are common priorities of conservation efforts, and climate and interspecific associations can also affect survival rates. In the lower Platte River system of eastern Nebraska, USA, Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) nest on river sandbars and different types of human-created off-river sites (i.e., sand and gravel mines, housing developments, and transitional sites) that are unique within the Northern Great Plains breeding population. However, off-river habitat may not be suitable for plover nesting long-term because of reduced habitat availability on both river sandbars and off-river sites. We evaluated plover nest survival at off-river and sandbar sites using data from 2008 to 2023 (n = 285). In addition, we examined the effects of extreme temperatures, proximity to conspecific and Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos , hereafter tern) nests, and temporal factors on nest survival. Plover nest survival did not differ between off-river sites and sandbars or amongst different off-river site types. Daily nest survival was 0.9818 (95% CI = 0.9729–0.9878) from 2008 to 2013 (unexclosed; n = 87) and 0.9950 (0.9918–0.9970) from 2014 to 2023 (exclosed; n = 198). Nest survival increased with the proportion of above average temperature days, increased with proximity to neighboring tern nests, and decreased with later nest initiation dates. Therefore, prioritizing early season nests, recognizing the benefits terns provide to plover nest survival, and monitoring the effect of climatic trends may aid future conservation efforts. Finally, as nest survival at off-river sites is comparable to sandbars, the predicted decline of habitat provided at off-river sites may reduce the overall breeding productivity and abundance of plovers in the lower Platte River system with ramifications to broader population viability.

Nebraska↗

USGS2025

Adult and hatch-year survival and fidelity of Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, USA

Knowledge of vital rates informs the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species. In the northern Great Plains, USA, the federally threatened Piping Plover Charadrius melodus uses a variety of nesting habitats including natural river sandbars and human-created sites in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska. In this area, off-river sandpit sites (i.e., active sand and gravel mines, transition sites, and lakeshore housing developments) are not managed to prioritize nesting and are often considered inferior habitat to sandbars. However, most Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system nest off river, especially in years when sandbar habitat is limited. As the quantity of habitat provided at off-river sites is predicted to decline, evaluating vital rates among different off-river nesting habitats will inform future conservation efforts. We estimated annual survival and fidelity of adult (n = 165) and hatch-year (n = 671) Piping Plovers from 2008 to 2018 and within-season weekly survival of breeding adults (n = 271) from 2011 to 2024. Annual adult survival was 0.771 (95% CI = 0.733–0.804) and hatch-year survival was 0.394 (0.335–0.456). Fidelity to the study area was 0.737 (0.634–0.819) for adults and 0.261 (0.192–0.345) for hatch-years. Within-season apparent weekly survival was higher for Piping Plovers at lakeshore housing developments (0.946 [85% CI = 0.917–0.965]) than sand and gravel mines (0.909 [0.874–0.935]) and transition sites (0.881 [0.834–0.928]). Annual survival of adult and hatch-year birds were comparable to other studies and regions within the Northern Great Plains population, indicating no negative consequence of off-river nesting to survival. Considering that off-river habitats are important for the persistence of Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system, continued monitoring of survival could help managers evaluate recovery implications under uncertain future habitat availability in the region.

Nebraska↗

USGS2025

Not all spatially structured populations are metapopulations: Re-examining paradigms for a threatened shorebird

For at-risk species, understanding population vital rates is imperative for developing informed conservation strategies and population models. Managers often assume that species that are spatially distributed among patches of suitable habitat meet the criteria of a metapopulation. Metapopulation dynamics are determined not only by within-patch birth and death processes but also by between-patch dispersal movements of individuals that are infrequent but critical to maintaining population viability across space and time. To conserve and manage such species, an understanding of all these vital rates, including connectivity, is required. The degree to which the northern Great Plains piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ) breeding population functions as a metapopulation depends, in part, on the rate of movement among patchily distributed breeding areas. Here, we examined annual adult survival and breeding dispersal probabilities for 2582 individuals at two spatial scales within the northern Great Plains piping plover breeding population between 2014 and 2019. Inconsistent with a metapopulation structure, annual survival varied minimally among breeding regions but did vary across years. We also found that breeding dispersal probabilities were temporally variable, high, and unbalanced at both spatial scales examined, suggesting high connectivity in contrast to metapopulation dynamics. Further, we detected context-dependent effects of reproductive success on dispersal decisions. Individuals were more likely to disperse from the northern Missouri River to the US Alkali Wetlands following nest failure due to inundation or severe storms (including in the year prior to dispersal), whereas dispersal from the US Alkali Wetlands to the northern Missouri River decreased following successful nest attempts. Individuals also decreased dispersal from the US Alkali Wetlands to the northern Missouri River in response to renesting attempts in both the year of interest and the year prior to dispersal. Our results contradict the paradigm that northern Great Plains piping plovers are structured as a metapopulation and instead suggest a patchily distributed, likely panmictic, population. Our findings have implications for the conservation and management of this listed species and are also a general reminder that in the absence of robust knowledge of movement, spatial variation in birth and death processes across patches should not be conflated with a metapopulation structure.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Developing research tools for demographic study of Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspurs)

Like numerous other North American grassland bird species, Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspur) has experienced severe population declines in the last 50 years. Little is known about population-limiting factors, and knowledge gaps limit conservation efforts on the species; however, before research studies aimed at improving conservation and management actions can be developed, other research must resolve notable knowledge gaps that exist in field techniques for efficient and effective large-scale demographic studies. We examined several techniques for the capture, marking (metal, color bands, and transmitters), and reencountering (resights and telemetry) of thick-billed longspurs in croplands and prairies in Valley County, Montana, during the 2022 and 2023 breeding seasons. Our goal was to evaluate the feasibility of obtaining within- and between-season resights of individual thick-billed longspurs using optical equipment and cameras, transmitter receivers, and the Motus automatic receiving station network. This report includes observations and insights that may aid researchers embarking on future demographic studies of thick-billed longspurs, as well as other grassland birds that provide similar research challenges.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Effects of nest exclosure on nest and adult survival of piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in the lower Platte River System, Nebraska

Conservation of imperiled species often includes management strategies intended to improve specific vital rates. However, some management practices can have unforeseen consequences that negate the intended benefit. For example, nest exclosures are often used for ground-nesting avian species to reduce nest predation but may increase depredation of adults. Tradeoffs between nest survival and adult mortality of nest exclosures likely depend on local predator community dynamics. Therefore, investigations are most informative when assessed in specific settings. Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, nest at off-river sandpit sites, which provide an additional study system and habitat to assess the context-dependent effects of nest exclosures. The Tern and Plover Conservation Partnership monitors plovers at off-river sites by monitoring nests, installing nest exclosures, and banding and resighting. Effects of nest exclosures were tested on both nest survival, from 340 plover nests from 2008–2024, and weekly within-season apparent survival, from 71 breeding adults from 2011–2024. There was weak evidence that nest exclosures marginally improved nest survival but no evidence of an effect for within-season survival of breeding adults. Daily nest survival was slightly higher for exclosed nests (0.99, [85% CI = 0.98–0.99]) than unexclosed nests (0.98, [0.98–0.99]). Within-season apparent weekly survival for breeding plovers was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.83–0.93); cumulative survival over the breeding period was 0.51 (0.33–0.69). Nest exclosures may be used to increase nest survival at off-river sites with minimal threat to adult survival unless considerable concerns arise.

Nebraska↗

USGS2024

Sampling for disease surveillance: Assessing effects on blue-winged teal survival and recovery

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild animals highlight the need for disease surveillance in wild birds to improve our understanding of their role as reservoirs and dispersers, and potential threats to domestic poultry and wild bird populations. Surveillance for avian influenza varies in its approach, objectives, and coordination with other monitoring efforts. For waterfowl, a common host to avian influenza viruses, banding represents a concerted effort of capturing and marking thousands of individuals annually to estimate survival and harvest rates, but users of these data have generally taken a conservative approach to remove any banded birds from analyses that had a sample taken for disease surveillance during capture. We tested for differences in survival and encounter probabilities of blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ) marked ( n = 21,702 teal) and sampled for disease surveillance ( n = 4,216) during the nonbreeding season in Louisiana, USA, from 2016 to 2023. Although we found no consistent effect of collecting biological samples on survival probability, including an additional test showing no detectable effects of sampling for disease surveillance with oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs versus sampling with swabs and a syringe-drawn blood sample, wide 95% credible intervals on the posterior survival estimates (mean 0.36 difference between upper and lower values across all year-sex-sampling groups; 0.44 for sampling type groups) indicated low statistical power to detect an effect. Seber recovery probability during the first interval following sampling was lower among birds sampled using swabs only, but we assume this stems from low sample sizes rather than an effect of collecting biological samples. Because recovery probabilities can vary as a function of individual covariates, we also examined direct recovery probabilities and observed no meaningful effect of disease surveillance sampling type but strong effects of capture date, suggesting the effect on Seber recovery probability may have been due to heterogeneity in exposure to natural and harvest mortality risks. Although we suggest that aligning disease surveillance sample collection efforts with landscape-scale waterfowl banding efforts may have little effect on observed demographic rates, additional studies with larger sample sizes are likely needed to provide the statistical power necessary to formally conclude no effect of biological sampling on survival probabilities.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Assessing trade-offs in developing a landscape-scale nest monitoring programme for a threatened shorebird

Effective monitoring of wildlife species requires thorough planning and development of survey programmes that can address management and conservation objectives. Decisions about monitoring programmes include where to survey, survey design and how much effort to allocate at survey sites are typically predicated on limited budgets and available resources. When the scope of inference requires monitoring on a broad spatial scale, predictions of habitat distribution or suitability may be useful for identifying potential survey sites. We focused on a threatened but widely distributed shorebird, the piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ), which is actively monitored across some, but not all of its range. Our objective was to use piping plover habitat distribution maps, which vary annually, to assess the effectiveness of multiple monitoring programme scenarios and their associated costs. In the breeding range, efforts to improve productivity for species of conservation concern often focus on improving probabilities of nest survival. Consequently, collecting adequate nesting data is crucial for obtaining accurate and precise estimates of nest survival and for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. By simulating the nest monitoring process, we evaluated how much area, where and how often to survey each site when estimating nest survival and detecting effects of potential management actions. As expected, precision increased and bias decreased around nest survival estimates with greater survey coverage and nest visit frequency. We also identified monitoring programmes with negative net values where survey costs outweighed statistical benefits. Although we applied our simulation framework to evaluate nest monitoring designs for piping plovers, it could be extended to assess whether different monitoring programmes can detect changes in the distribution of other species or occupancy of habitats over time.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

USGS2023

Estimating population viability of the northern Great Plains piping plover population considering updated population structure, climate change, and intensive management

One challenge in wildlife conservation is understanding how various threats and management actions may influence long-term population viability. This is particularly evident when there is considerable uncertainty regarding population structure and vital rates. Reassessment of current knowledge and population trends is necessary for listed species to improve management actions that benefit conservation. We present an updated population viability analysis for northern Great Plains piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus circumcinctus ) based on the latest scientific data on survival, fecundity, and connectivity. Further, we explore the consequences of potential management actions and the stochastic effects of global climate change on population viability through changes in survival and fecundity. Our results predict elevated risks of extinction after 50 years (0.088 – 0.373) compared to previous predictions (0.033) based on assumed conditions of low connectivity among four major breeding groups structured as a metapopulation. We explored eight scenarios based on empirically-derived, higher connectivity rates and found that the northern Great Plains population never had a mean predicted population growth rate greater than one (0.946 – 0.996). Two scenarios that simulated a reduction in adult survival showed higher extinction probabilities (0.267 – 0.373), whereas two other scenarios that simulated an increase in fecundity exhibited lower extinction probabilities (0.088 – 0.103). These results indicate that viability of the northern Great Plains population of piping plovers could be improved with management actions that increase fecundity as long as adult survival is not simultaneously reduced. Lastly, breeding groups appeared to function less independently when connectivity rates were higher, as the breeding population was divided evenly among breeding groups. This indicates that the presumed metapopulation structure of our study system may need to be re-evaluated, and that empirically-based estimates of connectivity are essential to assessing population viability of mobile species that exhibit a spatially structured distribution.

Frontiers in Bird Science↗

USGS2023

Conspecific density and habitat quality affect breeding habitat selection: Support for the social attraction hypothesis

Breeding habitat selection is a critical component of the annual cycle because of its effect on fitness. Multiple theories of habitat selection can be differentiated by their responses to the quantity of habitat, conspecific density, and habitat quality. Here, we use network analysis to understand the characteristics of fine-scale breeding habitat selected by both immigrant and returning adult piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) to test five hypotheses of habitat selection. Between 2014 and 2019, we recorded 2034 uniquely marked adults breeding at 326 breeding locations with 1240 successive breeding events. Among adults, immigration events (i.e., individuals that moved to a new breeding location) were detected as often as fidelity to the same breeding location. We found support for the social attraction hypothesis for both immigrants and returners, indicating that adult plovers use social cues for settlement decisions. Adult plovers selected habitats with intermediate levels of conspecific density and high habitat quality, as assessed by con- and heterospecific nest survival, with no effect from the amount of available habitat. We also simulated the loss of breeding habitat and identified highly connected breeding locations, which occurred mostly on the riverine habitat type, which have important implications for habitat conservation for this listed species. Our results highlight the role of conspecifics at identifying high-quality breeding habitat regardless of whether individuals return to the same breeding site or immigrate to new areas.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Data integration reveals dynamic and systematic patterns of breeding habitat use by a threatened shorebird

Incorporating species distributions into conservation planning has traditionally involved long-term representations of habitat use where temporal variation is averaged to reveal habitats that are most suitable across time. Advances in remote sensing and analytical tools have allowed for the integration of dynamic processes into species distribution modeling. Our objective was to develop a spatiotemporal model of breeding habitat use for a federally threatened shorebird (piping plover, Charadrius melodus ). Piping plovers are an ideal candidate species for dynamic habitat models because they depend on habitat created and maintained by variable hydrological processes and disturbance. We integrated a 20-year (2000–2019) nesting dataset with volunteer-collected sightings (eBird) using point process modeling. Our analysis incorporated spatiotemporal autocorrelation, differential observation processes within data streams, and dynamic environmental covariates. We evaluated the transferability of this model in space and time and the contribution of the eBird dataset. eBird data provided more complete spatial coverage in our study system than nest monitoring data. Patterns of observed breeding density depended on both dynamic (e.g., surface water levels) and long-term (e.g., proximity to permanent wetland basins) environmental processes. Our study provides a framework for quantifying dynamic spatiotemporal patterns of breeding density. This assessment can be iteratively updated with additional data to improve conservation and management efforts, because reducing temporal variability to average patterns of use may cause a loss in precision for such actions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2022

Implications of habitat-driven survival and dispersal on recruitment in a spatially structured piping plover population

Natal survival and dispersal have important consequences for populations through the movement of genes and individuals. Metapopulation theory predicts either balanced natal dispersal among regions or source–sink dynamics, which can dramatically change population structure. For species reliant on dynamic, early-successional habitats, availability and location of habitat will shift from year to year, requiring primiparous individuals to locate an appropriate breeding habitat. We estimated hatch-year survival to adulthood and natal dispersal rates between two breeding groups of Northern Great Plains piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) from four cohorts ( n = 2669 total individuals; 2014–2017). Hatch-year survival to adulthood was slightly higher for individuals hatched on the Missouri River than on the US Alkali Wetlands but declined over time. Individuals hatched on the US Alkali Wetlands were more likely to disperse to breed on the Missouri River (0.33 [0.20, 0.48]) than vice versa (0.17 [0.11, 0.24]). When more habitat was available at the natal site than in the prior year, natal dispersal rates increased. However, despite higher recruitment rates as a result of higher natal fidelity, the Missouri River showed lower total recruitment with a declining trend in the number of recruits, largely due to differences in abundance between breeding groups. Overall, unbalanced, high natal dispersal rates within the Northern Great Plains indicate high connectivity among distinct regions with different water regimes on the Missouri River and on the US Alkali Wetlands driven by fluctuating availability of habitat. Our results suggest that plovers in the Northern Great Plains take advantage of dynamic habitats where they are available in a broad geographic area, which is consistent with a spatially structured panmictic population rather than a true metapopulation, but further research on adult breeding dispersal is needed to clarify population structure.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2022

Dynamic sensitivity to resource availability influences population responses to mismatches in a shorebird

Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events leading to the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs – i.e., phenological mismatching. Although mismatches often affect individual fitness, they do not invariably scale up to affect populations, making it difficult to assess the risk they pose. Individual variation may contribute to this inconsistency, with changes in resource availability and consumer needs leading mismatches to have different outcomes over time. Nevertheless, most models estimate a consumer’s match from a single timepoint, potentially obscuring when mismatches matter to populations. We analyzed how the effects of mismatches varied over time by studying precocial Hudsonian godwit ( Limosa haemastica) chicks and their invertebrate prey from 2009 to 2019. We developed individual and population level models to determine how age-specific variation affect the relationship between godwits and resource availability. We found that periods with abundant resources led to higher growth and survival of godwit chicks, but also that chick survival was increasingly related to the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, estimates of mismatches using age-structured consumer demand explained more variation in annual godwit fledging rates than more commonly used alternatives. Our study suggests that modeling the effects of mismatches as the disrupted interaction between dynamic consumer needs and resource availability clarifies when mismatches matter to both individuals and populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Behavioural adjustments in the social associations of a precocial shorebird mediate the costs and benefits of grouping decisions

Animals weigh multiple costs and benefits when making grouping decisions. The cost-avoidance grouping framework proposes that group density, information quality and risk affect an individual’s preference for con or heterospecific groups. However, this assumes the cost–benefit balance of a particular grouping is constant spatiotemporally, which may not always be true. Investigating how spatiotemporal context influences grouping choices is therefore key to understanding how animals contend with changing conditions. Changes in body size during development lead to variable conditions for individuals over short time-scales that can influence their ecological interactions. Hudsonian godwits Limosa haemastica , for instance, form a protective nesting association with a major predator of young godwit chicks, colonial short-billed gulls Larus brachyrhynchus . Godwit broods may avoid areas of higher gull densities when chicks are susceptible to gull predation but likely experience higher risk from alternative predators as a result. Associating with conspecifics could allow godwits to buffer these costs but requires enough other broods with whom to group. To determine how age-dependent predation risk and conspecific density influence godwit grouping behaviours, we first quantified the time-dependent effects of con- and heterospecific interactions on the mortality risk for godwit chicks throughout development. We then determined how godwit density and chick age affected their associations with con- and heterospecific. We found that younger godwit chicks' survival improved with closer association with conspecifics, earlier hatch dates and lower gull densities, whereas older chicks survived better with earlier hatch dates, though this effect was less clear. Concomitantly, godwit broods avoided gulls early in development and when godwit densities were high but maintained loose associations with conspecifics throughout development. We identified how individuals can optimally shift with whom they group according to risks that vary spatially and temporally. Investigating the effects of a species' ecological interactions across spatiotemporal contexts in this way can shed light on how animals adjust their associations according to the costs and benefits of each association.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2021

Experimental evaluation of predator exclosures on nest, chick, and adult survival of piping plovers

Species of conservation concern often receive intensive management to improve vital rates and facilitate recovery. Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) are federally listed in the United States and concerns over nest depredation have prompted widespread use of plover-permeable predator exclosures placed around nests (0.5–2-m radius). While effectiveness of exclosures for improving nest survival has been demonstrated, concerns remain about decreased chick survival (through predator cueing or density-dependent processes) or increased vulnerability of adults to predation (ambush as adult leaves exclosure). Either one of these concerns could demographically outweigh the benefits of increased nest survival. During 2014–2016, we conducted an experiment designed to evaluate survival of uniquely identified nests ( n = 418), chicks ( n = 453), and adults ( n = 367) at wetlands across the Northern Great Plains, USA. We assigned wetlands ( n 2014 = 26, n 2015 = 28, n 2016 = 25) into 2 groups: wetlands in which half of the nests received exclosures and wetlands in which none of the nests received exclosures. Exclosed nests had greater cumulative survival (0.73 [85% CI = 0.70–0.77]) than unexclosed nests at treatment wetlands (0.58 [0.54–0.62]) or unexclosed nests at control wetlands (0.52 [0.49–0.56]). Survival to fledging was highest for chicks hatched from exclosed nests (0.51 [0.47–0.56]), and similar between chicks hatched from unexclosed nests at treatment (0.34 [0.30–0.39]) and control (0.37 [0.32–0.42]) wetlands. Cumulative survival of adults during incubation varied by exclosure status, but adults associated with exclosed nests (0.90 [0.88–0.93]) and unexclosed nests at treatment wetlands (0.89 [0.86–0.92]) had greater survival than those associated with unexclosed nests at control wetlands (0.75 [0.64–0.84]). Adult annual survival rates varied by year (0.79–0.95) but not by exclosure status. The positive influence of exclosures on nest survival was not offset by a reduction in chick or adult survival, indicating that exclosures are a viable tool for piping plover conservation.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2021

Dispersal distance is driven by habitat availability and reproductive success in Northern Great Plains piping plovers

Background Dispersal is a critical life history strategy that has important conservation implications, particularly for at-risk species with active recovery efforts and migratory species. Both natal and breeding dispersal are driven by numerous selection pressures, including conspecific competition, individual characteristics, reproductive success, and spatiotemporal variation in habitat. Most studies focus on dispersal probabilities, but the distance traveled can affect survival, fitness, and even metapopulation dynamics. Methods We examined sources of variation in dispersal distances with 275 natal dispersal and 1335 interannual breeding events for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) breeding in the Northern Great Plains between 2014 and 2019. Results Natal dispersal was on average longer (mean: 81.0 km, median: 53 km) than adult breeding movements (mean: 23.7 km, median: 1 km). Individuals moved the shortest distances when hatched, previously nested, or settling on river habitats. When more habitat was available on their natal area than in the year prior, hatch-year birds moved shorter distances to their first breeding location. Similarly, adults also moved shorter distances when more habitat was available at the settling site and when in closer proximity to other known nesting areas. Additionally, adult movement distance was shorter when successfully hatching a nest the year prior, retaining a mate, or initiating a current nest earlier. Conclusion Habitat availability appears to be associated with dispersal distance for both hatch-year and adult piping plovers. Conservation efforts that integrate dispersal distances may benefit from maintaining nesting habitat within close proximity to other areas for adults and a network of clustered sites spread out across a larger landscape for natal dispersal.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2021

Spatial variation in population dynamics of northern Great Plains piping plovers

Metapopulation dynamics are determined not only by within-patch birth and death processes but also by between-patch movements of individuals (emigration and immigration). To conserve and manage a species that has a metapopulation structure, defined by local populations that are distributed among patches of suitable habitat, we need to understand each of these vital rates. For the federally listed northern Great Plains Charadrius melodus (Ord, 1824) (piping plover), managers assumed a metapopulation structure consisting of four breeding groups with low, balanced dispersal, which resulted in low extinction risk in a simulation-based viability study. The degree to which the northern Great Plains piping plover breeding population functions as a metapopulation depends on the rate of movement amongst breeding areas. Sources of variation in survival, dispersal probabilities, and dispersal distances were examined for hatch-year and adult piping plovers breeding in the northern Great Plains from 2014 to 2019 focusing on four management units (U.S. Alkali Wetlands, Lake Sakakawea, Garrison Reach of the Missouri River, and Lake Oahe). Additionally, renesting probabilities, renest reproductive success, and reproductive output were investigated from 2014 to 2016 in each of these areas to understand within-patch productivity. This report includes two major sections: (1) a presentation that includes the context, results, and implications of the study, followed by a detailed text methodology, and (2) an appendix that provides synthesized estimates of piping plover vital rates from throughout their range. River and alkali wetland habitats seem to be of higher quality than reservoir habitats, although alkali wetland habitats have lower annual survival, lower reproductive output, and lower fidelity probabilities than riverine habitats. Habitat availability drove dispersal probabilities and dispersal distances for hatch-year and adult piping plovers. Renesting propensity and renest reproductive success were generally low, suggesting that renesting is an uncommon and unproductive strategy to replace most lost reproductive attempts. Estimates indicated high connectivity between the U.S. Alkali Wetlands and the northern river units (Lake Sakakawea, Garrison Reach, Lake Oahe) of the Missouri River, suggesting that the assumed metapopulation structure and population viability may need to be reassessed.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗