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Geology topics

Roger P. Denlinger

Publications and source records attributed to Roger P. Denlinger.

36 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2012

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2012

Ash3d: A finite-volume, conservative numerical model for ash transport and tephra deposition

We develop a transient, 3-D Eulerian model (Ash3d) to predict airborne volcanic ash concentration and tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. This model simulates downwind advection, turbulent diffusion, and settling of ash injected into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption column. Ash advection is calculated using time-varying pre-existing wind data and a robust, high-order, finite-volume method. Our routine is mass-conservative and uses the coordinate system of the wind data, either a Cartesian system local to the volcano or a global spherical system for the Earth. Volcanic ash is specified with an arbitrary number of grain sizes, which affects the fall velocity, distribution and duration of transport. Above the source volcano, the vertical mass distribution with elevation is calculated using a Suzuki distribution for a given plume height, eruptive volume, and eruption duration. Multiple eruptions separated in time may be included in a single simulation. We test the model using analytical solutions for transport. Comparisons of the predicted and observed ash distributions for the 18 August 1992 eruption of Mt. Spurr in Alaska demonstrate to the efficacy and efficiency of the routine.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Inflation rates, rifts, and bands in a pāhoehoe sheet flow

The margins of sheet flows—pāhoehoe lavas emplaced on surfaces sloping <2°—are typically delineated by structures that form to accommodate vertical flow inflation. We refer to these structures as inflation rifts. The surfaces of inflation rifts almost always exhibit bands of varying color and texture. Various explanations for the bands have been proposed, but active band formation has never been documented. In order to test our hypothesis that banding is caused by changes in the inflation rate, we collected time-lapse photographs of the margin of an actively inflating flow and simultaneously measured the height of the flow with an extensometer. Data collected over a period of ∼1 d indicate that the height of the flow margin changed in a stepwise manner and that rate changes correlate with band formation. This confirms our hypothesis. Inflation and rift-band formation is probably cyclic, because the pattern we observed suggests episodic or crude cyclic behavior. Furthermore, some inflation rifts contain numerous bands whose spacing and general appearances are remarkably similar. We propose a conceptual model wherein the inferred cyclicity is due to the competition between the fluid pressure in the flow's liquid core and the tensile strength of the viscoelastic layer where it is weakest—in inflation rifts. The viscoelastic layer consists of lava that has cooled to temperatures between 800 and 1070 °C. This layer is the key parameter in our model because, in its absence, rift banding and stepwise changes in the flow height would not occur.

Hawaii↗
USGS2012

Effects of catastrophic floods and debris flows on the sediment retention structure, North Fork Toutle River, Washington

The eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980 produced a debris avalanche that flowed down the upper reaches of the North Fork Toutle River in southwestern Washington, clogging this drainage with sediment. In response to continuous anomalously high sediment flux into the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers resulting from this avalanche and associated debris flows, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed a Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) on the North Fork Toutle River in May 1989. For one decade, the SRS effectively blocked most of the sediment transport down the Toutle River. In 1999, the sediment level behind the SRS reached the elevation of the spillway base. Since then, a higher percentage of sediment has been passing the SRS and increasing the flood risk in the Cowlitz River. Currently (2012), the dam is filling with sediment at a rate that cannot be sustained for its original design life, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is concerned with the current ability of the SRS to manage floods. This report presents an assessment of the ability of the dam to pass large flows from three types of scenarios (it is assumed that no damage to the spillway will occur). These scenarios are (1) a failure of the debris-avalanche blockage forming Castle Lake that produces a dambreak flood, (2) a debris flow from failure of that blockage, or (3) a debris flow originating in the crater of Mount St. Helens. In each case, the flows are routed down the Toutle River and through the SRS using numerical models on a gridded domain produced from a digital elevation model constructed with existing topography and dam infrastructure. The results of these simulations show that a structurally sound spillway is capable of passing large floods without risk of overtopping the crest of the dam. In addition, large debris flows originating from Castle Lake or the crater of Mount St. Helens never reach the SRS. Instead, debris flows fill the braided channels upstream of the dam and reduce its storage capacity.

Washington↗
USGS2009

Simulations of cataclysmic outburst floods from Pleistocene Glacial Lake Missoula

Using a flow domain that we constructed from 30 m digital-elevation model data of western United States and Canada and a two-dimensional numerical model for shallow-water flow over rugged terrain, we simulated outburst floods from Pleistocene Glacial Lake Missoula. We modeled a large, but not the largest, flood, using initial lake elevation at 1250 m instead of 1285 m. Rupture of the ice dam, centered on modern Lake Pend Oreille, catastrophically floods eastern Washington and rapidly fills the broad Pasco, Yakima, and Umatilla Basins. Maximum flood stage is reached in Pasco and Yakima Basins 38 h after the dam break, whereas maximum flood stage in Umatilla Basin occurs 17 h later. Drainage of these basins through narrow Columbia gorge takes an additional 445 h. For this modeled flood, peak discharges in eastern Washington range from 10 to 20 × 10 6 m 3 /s. However, constrictions in Columbia gorge limit peak discharges to <6 × 10 6 m 3 /s and greatly extend the duration of flooding. We compare these model results with field observations of scabland distribution and high-water indicators. Our model predictions of the locations of maximum scour (product of bed shear stress and average flow velocity) match the distribution of existing scablands. We compare model peak stages to high-water indicators from the Rathdrum-Spokane valley, Walulla Gap, and along Columbia gorge. Though peak stages from this less-than-maximal flood model attain or exceed peak-stage indicators along Rathdrum-Spokane valley and along Columbia gorge, simulated peak stages near Walulla Gap are 10–40 m below observed peak-stage indicators. Despite this discrepancy, our match to field observations in most of the region indicates that additional sources of water other than Glacial Lake Missoula are not required to explain the Missoula floods.

Montana↗
USGS2008

An exact solution for ideal dam-break floods on steep slopes

The shallow‐water equations are used to model the flow resulting from the sudden release of a finite volume of frictionless, incompressible fluid down a uniform slope of arbitrary inclination. The hodograph transformation and Riemann's method make it possible to transform the governing equations into a linear system and then deduce an exact analytical solution expressed in terms of readily evaluated integrals. Although the solution treats an idealized case never strictly realized in nature, it is uniquely well‐suited for testing the robustness and accuracy of numerical models used to model shallow‐water flows on steep slopes.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Analysis of GPS-measured deformation associated with the 2004-2006 dome-building eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

Detecting far-field deformation at Mount St. Helens since the crater-forming landslide and blast in 1980 has been difficult despite frequent volcanic activity and improved monitoring techniques. Between 1982 and 1991, the systematic extension of line lengths in a regional GPS trilateration network is consistent with recharge of a deep magma chamber during that interval. The rate of extension, however, averages only 3 mm/yr, and some of this apparent deformation may result from systematic scale error in the electronic distance measurements. Subsequent GPS surveys and data from a continuous GPS station, located 9 km north of Mount St. Helens and operating since 1997, show no significant volcanic deformation until the start of unrest on September 23, 2004. The current eruption has been accompanied by subtle but widespread inward and downward movement of GPS monitoring stations, exponentially decreasing with time and totaling as much as 30 mm. The observed deformation is consistent with the predictions of an elastic half-space model of a vertically elongate magma chamber with its center at a depth of around 7 to 8 km and with a total cavity-volume loss of about 16–24×10 6 m 3 . The discrepancy between the estimated cavity-volume loss and the >83×10 6 -m 3 volume of the erupted dome can be explained, for the most part, by exsolution of gas in the stored magma and by minor input of new magma during the eruption.

Washington↗
USGS2007

Initial insights from 2.5D hydraulic modeling of floods in Athabasca Valles, Mars

We present the first application of a 2.5D hydraulic model to catastrophic floods on Mars. This model simulates flow over complex topography and incorporates flood dynamics that could not be modeled in the earlier 1D models. We apply this model to Athabasca Valles, the youngest outflow channel on Mars, investigating previous bank-full discharge estimates and utilizing the interpolated Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter elevation map as input. We confirm that the bank-full assumption does not fit the observed landforms. Instead, the channel appears more deeply incised near the source. Flow modeling also identifies several areas of special interest, including a dry cataract that coincides with a region of predicted high erosion. However, artifacts in the elevation data strongly impacted estimated stages and velocities in other areas. More extensive connection between the flood hydraulics and observed landforms awaits improved topographic data.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2007

Simulations of potential runout and deposition of the Ferguson rockslide, Merced River Canyon, California

INTRODUCTION An active rockslide in Merced River Canyon was first noticed on April 29, 2006 when a few rocks rolled onto Highway 140 between mileposts 103 and 104, compromising traffic on this highway and signaling the onset of renewed activity of the Ferguson rockslide. State highway 140 is one of the main entrances to Yosemite National Park and is the primary road for large commercial trucks access into the park from the west. Continued rockslide activity during 2006 built a large talus cone that covered the highway and encroached into the Merced River below it. Observations by the US Forest Service (USFS), the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirm that the rockslide remained active through 2006 and represents a potential threat to traffic along the rerouted highway as well as to recreational users of the Merced River in the runout path below the rockslide. Delineation of the hazards posed by the Ferguson rockslide is a necessary prerequisite to mitigating them. Field observations of the rockslide, shown in the photo of Figure 1, have constrained the geometry and structure of the slide mass (Beck, 2006; Gallegos and DeGraff, 2006). Based on initial estimates by geologists from USFS, CALTRANS and the USGS, the rockslide, active in 2006 and 2007, has an area of approximately 40,000 square meters and a volume of approximately 800,000 cubic meters. Structural mapping suggests that the motion of the slide is translational along a planar bed, and that differential motion of the slide from the toe to the headwall has resulted in formation of large tension cracks that transect the slide across the slope (Beck, 2006). These indications of persistent movement were confirmed during 2006 and 2007 by GPS measurements made by the USGS at three points on the rockslide (Rick LaHusen, USGS, written communication). The larger of these cracks divide the slide into regions that moved at different rates in 2006, with the toe of the rockslide moving five to ten times faster than the middle portion or headwall part of the slide. Downslope of the main rockslide mass, a talus slope consist in of angular blocks ranging in size from 0.1 to greater than 10 meters (Gallegos and DeGraff, 2006), buries Highway 140. Both the main rockslide and the talus consist of angular blocks ranging in size from 0.1 to more than 10 meters and are composed of highly fractured phyllite, slate, and chert from the Phyllite and Chert of Hite Cove (Bateman and Krauskopf, 1987). The purpose of this report is to assess the hazard posed by the Ferguson rockslide by simulating the runout and deposition of a portion of the slide if rapid failure occurs. As discussed by Gallegos and DeGraf (2006), a runout analysis is needed to delineate slide hazards. The report is restricted to calculations of potential runout and does not address the likelihood of rapid failure. Based on discussions with Allan Gallegos (USFS), two end-member initial slide volumes were chosen: (1) the toe of the slide along boundaries defined by Tim Beck (CALTRANS) in (Beck, 2006), and (2) the entire sliding rock mass, again along boundaries defined by Tim Beck. The simulated runout of these volumes during rapid failure uses granular flow mechanics developed by Iverson (1997) and the model developed by Denliner and Iverson, (2004). This model has been thoroughly tested against experimental data and provides plausible, defensible results.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Summary of preliminary 2D inundation modeling for three Hattian landslide dam breach scenarios

On October 8, 2005, a M 7.6 earthquake near Muzafarrabad, Pakistan, triggered a landslide that dammed the Karli River and one of its tributaries about 4 km upstream of the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers near the town of Hattian Bala. The smaller dam on the tributary of the Karli River has been artificially breached and is no longer a hazard. When the larger dammed lake on the Karli River has filled enough to flow over the landslide blockage, it will have impounded about 60 million cubic meters of water. This lake will drain through the landslide dam as it breaches during the spring runoff or during the monsoon season in early summer. The inundation associated with the Karli River landslide dam breach endangers a substantial downstream population, particularly the population located in the vicinity of Hattian Bala at the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers. To help mitigate this hazard, we used an accurate two-dimensional flow model to simulate dambreak flows associated with three breach-rate downcutting scenarios, and estimated inundation depths and peak flow velocities. We superimposed inundation extents and other attributes on photographic images of the region to provide clear delineation of potential impacts on populated areas near the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 2. Experimental tests

Scaling considerations indicate that miniature experiments can be used to test models of granular avalanches in which the effects of intergranular fluid and cohesion are negligible. To test predictions of a granular avalanche model described in a companion paper, we performed bench top experiments involving avalanches of dry sand across irregular basal topography that mimicked the complexity of natural terrain. The experiments employed a novel method of laser-assisted cartography to map the three-dimensional morphology of rapidly moving avalanches, thereby providing high-resolution data for comparison with model output. Model input consisted of two material properties (angles of internal and basal Coulomb friction of the sand), which were measured in independent tests, and of initial and boundary conditions that characterized the geometry of the experimental apparatus. Experimental results demonstrate that the model accurately predicts not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion, from initiation to deposition. We attribute this accuracy to a mathematical and computational formulation that conserves mass and momentum in three-dimensional physical space and satisfies the Coulomb equation in three-dimensional stress space. Our results support the hypothesis that a Coulomb proportionality between shear and normal stresses applies in moderately rapid granular flows and that complicated constitutive postulates are unnecessary if momentum conservation is strictly enforced in continuum avalanche models. Furthermore, predictions of our Coulomb continuum model contrast with those of a Coulomb point mass model, illustrating the importance of multidimensional modeling and model testing.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗
USGS2004

Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 1. Theory and computation

To establish a theoretical basis for predicting and interpreting the behavior of rapid mass movements on Earth's surface, we develop and test a new computational model for gravity-driven motion of granular avalanches across irregular, three-dimensional (3-D) terrain. The principles embodied in the model are simple and few: continuum mass and momentum conservation and intergranular stress generation governed by Coulomb friction. However, significant challenges result from the necessity of satisfying these principles when deforming avalanches interact with steep and highly variable 3-D terrain. We address these challenges in four ways. (1) We formulate depth-averaged governing equations that are referenced to a rectangular Cartesian coordinate system (with z vertical) and that account explicitly for the effect of nonzero vertical accelerations on depth-averaged mass and momentum fluxes and stress states. (2) We compute fluxes of mass and momentum across vertical cell boundaries using a high-resolution finite volume method and Roe-type Riemann solver. Our algorithm incorporates flux difference splitting, an entropy correction for the flux, and eigenvector decomposition to embed the effects of driving and resisting forces in Riemann solutions. (3) We use a finite element method and avalanche displacements predicted by Riemann solutions to compute Coulomb stresses conjugate to the displacements in 3-D stress space. (4) We test the model output against analytical solutions, a sand cone conceptual experiment, and (in a companion paper) data from detailed laboratory experiments. Model results illustrate a complex interplay of basal traction and internal stress, and they successfully predict not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion from initiation to deposition.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗
USGS2003

Determination of specific yield and water-table changes using temporal microgravity surveys collected during the second injection, storage, and recovery test at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, November 1996 through April 1997

To evaluate the feasibility of artificially recharging the ground-water system in the Lancaster area of the Antelope Valley, California, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works and the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency, conducted a series of injection, storage, and recovery tests between September 1995 and September 1998. A key component of this study was to measure the response of the water table to injection, which was difficult because the water table averaged 300 feet below land surface. Rather than install many expensive piezometers, microgravity surveys were conducted to determine specific yield and to measure the development of a ground-water mound during the injection of about 1,050 acre-feet of fresh water into an alluvial-aquifer system. The surveys were done prior to, during, and near the end of a 5-month injection period (November 12, 1996, to April 17, 1997). Results of the surveys indicate increases in gravity of as much as 66 microgals between a bedrock reference station and 20 gravity stations within a 1-square-mile area surrounding the injection site. The changes were assumed to have been caused by changes in the ground-water elevation. Gravity and ground-water levels were measured simultaneously at an existing well (7N/12W-34B1). The coupled measurements were used to calculate a specific yield of 0.13 for the alluvial aquifer near the well. To determine the gravitational effect of the injection mound on the gravity measurements made near well 7N/12W-34B1, a two-dimensional gravity model was used. Results of the model simulation show that the effect on gravity associated with the mass of the injection mound was minor and thus had a negligible effect on the calculation of specific yield. The specific yield of 0.13, therefore, was used to infer water-level changes at other gravity stations within the study area. The gravity-derived water-level changes were compared with simulated water-table changes.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2001

Mechanics of debris flows and debris-laden flash floods

A new mathematical model developed to predict behavior of debris flows and avalanches also holds promise for predicting behavior of debris-laden flash floods. The model assumes that debris flows behave as mixtures of interacting Newtonian fluids and Coulomb solids. Solid and fluid constituents obey three-dimensional mass and momentum balances, which are summed and depth-integrated to yield equations that describe shallow flows of the mixture as a whole. An important distinction between these mixture equations and standard shallow-water equations results from strong variation of flow resistance due to interacting solid and fluid forces. Partitioning of flow resistance between solid and fluid components depends on fluid pressure, which evolves as flow evolves. If fluid pressure supports the total weight of the flowing mass, all resistance results from hydrodynamic forces, and the equations reduce to the conventional shallow-water form. If fluid pressure supports none of the weight of the flowing mass, all flow resistance results from Coulomb friction between interacting solids, and the equations describe motion of granular avalanches. A combination of solid and fluid resistance typifies debris flows and debris-laden flash floods. In these flows solid resistance commonly is concentrated at the fronts of advancing bores that may be heavily freighted with rocks and woody debris. Riemann methods provide an effective tool for solving the shallow flow equations numerically and predicting unsteady motion of debris flows and flash floods along paths with arbitrary geometry and inclination

Conference Paper↗
USGS1990

Major off-axis hydrothermal activity on the northern Gorda Ridge

The first hydrothermal field on the northern Gorda Ridge, the Sea Cliff hydrothermal field, was discovered and geologic controls of hydrothermal activity in the rift valley were investigated on a dive series using the DSV Sea Cliff . The Sea Cliff hydrothermal field was discovered where predicted at the intersection of axis-oblique and axis-parallel faults at the south end of a linear ridge at mid-depth (2700 m) on the east wall. Preliminary mapping and sampling of the field reveal: a setting nested on nearly sediment-free fault blocks 300 m above the rift valley floor 2.6 km from the axis; a spectrum of venting types from seeps to black smokers; high conductive heat flow estimated to be equivalent to the convective flux of multiple black smokers through areas of the sea floor sealed by a caprock of elastic breccia primarily derived from basalt with siliceous cement and barite pore fillings; and a vent biota with Juan de Fuca Ridge affinites. These findings demonstrate the importance of off-axis hydrothermal activity and the role of the intersection of tectonic lineations in controlling hydrothermal sites at sea-floor spreading centers.

Gorda Ridge↗
USGS1987

The physics of debris flows — A conceptual assessment

Debris flows exhibit conspicuous dynamic interactions among their solid and fluid constituents. Key features of the interactions are neglected in traditional theories that treat debris flows as viscoplastic continua or as uniformly dispersed grain flows, but improved understanding of grain-grain and fluid-grain interactions has emerged from recent experimental and theoretical research. Grain-flow research has extended the concepts of statistical thermodynamics to consider inelastic grain collisions and to predict energy-dissipation, velocity, and grain-concentration distributions in flowing, granular materials. Research on fluid-grain interactions has focussed on fluctuating solid and fluid stresses in the vicinity of colliding grains and on energy dissipation in deforming solid-fluid mixtures. Insights born from these new approaches have practical ramifications for interpretive and predictive studies of debris flows.

Conference Paper↗