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Roger G. Bilham

Publications and source records attributed to Roger G. Bilham.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Summary of Creepmeter Data from 1980 to 2020—Measurements Spanning the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas Faults in Northern and Central California

This report is an update to the presentation by Schulz (1989) introducing potential users to the creepmeter data collected between the publication of Schulz’s report and mid-2020. The creepmeter network monitors aseismic, surface slip at various locations on the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas Faults in northern and central California. There are different designs of creepmeters and these are briefly described. For a majority of the creepmeters, these data are automatically sent to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) offices where they are stored and processed. In addition, for most of the creepmeters, occasional manual measurements are made and these are compared with digitally recorded data. For some sites, the comparisons indicated degradation of the electronic sensor and consequently corrections are made to the digital data. The largest transient deformation is that which followed the 2004, M6 , Parkfield earthquake. Various functions found in the literature that have been used to model postseismic slip were tested with the observed postseismic behavior seen on the creepmeters in the vicinity of Parkfield, California. No single function adequately fit all the data from these Parkfield instruments. This report is a discussion and analysis of data from creepmeters deployed by the USGS. The discussion primarily focuses on instruments that are currently operating in 2020 or have operated quite recently but are no longer in service.

California↗
USGS2018

Poroelastic stress changes associated with primary oil production in the Los Angeles Basin, California

While recent investigations of induced earthquakes have focused on earthquakes associated with wastewater injection and unconventional recovery methods, the potential for earthquakes to be induced by primary production has long been recognized. We use boundary element methods to quantify the predicted geometry and amplitude of stress and strain changes associated with removal of large volumes of fluids in poroelastic reservoirs, focusing on the Los Angeles Basin (LA Basin) in California. We show that significant stress perturbations (upward of 0.1 MPa), while localized, typically extended several kilometers away from production horizons by the early 1940s. By this time, production horizons in the southwestern LA Basin were 2–4 km deep; models thus predict that stress conditions would have been perturbed significantly on faults at the upper edge of the seismogenic brittle crust, typically around 6 km. Predicted stress and strain changes associated with oil fields in the southwestern LA Basin during the first half of the 20th century, combined with stress changes caused by the 1933 Long Beach earthquake, could plausibly have induced a number of moderate-to-large earthquakes between 1932 and 1944. The rate of earthquakes in the southwestern LA Basin has been significantly lower since 1945 than it was for the three decades prior to 1945. We conclude that while decreasing production and pore-pressure reduction contributed to the initial decline, the continued decline was due in part to the advent of widespread water-flooding methods that maintained subsurface reservoir pressures.

California↗
USGS2012

Long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features, revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault, but no detectable temporal variation. Since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE), monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate. We now identify significant temporal variations, mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes. The largest rate change was a 6‐yr cessation of creep along a 5‐km length near the south end of the HF, attributed to a regional stress drop from the LPE, ending in 1996 with a 2‐cm creep event. North of there near Union City starting in 1991, rates apparently increased by 25% above pre‐LPE levels on a 16‐km‐long reach of the fault. Near Oakland in 2007 an Mw 4.2 earthquake initiated a 1–2 cm creep event extending 10–15 km along the fault. Using new better‐constrained long‐term creep rates, we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the HF. The locking depths outline a single, ∼50‐km‐long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an Mw∼6.8 event equaling the 1868 HF earthquake. We propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on HF.

California↗
USGS2011

Triggered surface slips in southern California associated with the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake

The April 4, 2010 ( M w 7.2), El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake is the strongest earthquake to shake the Salton Trough area since the 1992 ( M w 7.3) Landers earthquake. Similar to the Landers event, ground-surface fracturing occurred on multiple faults in the trough. However, the 2010 event triggered surface slip on more faults in the central Salton Trough than previous earthquakes, including multiple faults in the Yuha Desert area, the southwestern section of the Salton Trough. In the central Salton Trough, surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, Wienert, Kalin, and Imperial Faults and along the Brawley Fault Zone, all of which are known to have slipped in historical time, either in primary (tectonic) slip and/or in triggered slip. Surface slip in association with the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is at least the eighth time in the past 42 years that a local or regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the central Salton Trough. In the southwestern part of the Salton Trough, surface fractures (triggered slip) occurred in a broad area of the Yuha Desert. This is the first time that triggered slip has been observed in the southwestern Salton Trough. Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along more than two dozen faults, only some of which were recognized before the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas: (1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), (2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, (3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), (4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, (5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name) and related faults between it and the Yuha Fault, (6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named) and related faults to the north and south, and (7) along the southeasternmost section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical offset. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults appears to have occurred only in association with the June 14, 2010 ( M w 5.7), aftershock. This aftershock also resulted in slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered offset on faults in the Yuha Desert area was mostly less than 20 mm, with three significant exceptions, including slip of about 50–60 mm on the Yuha Fault, 40 mm on a fault south of Pinto Wash, and about 85 mm on the Ocotillo Fault. All triggered slips in the Yuha Desert area occurred along preexisting faults, whether previously recognized or not.

California↗
USGS2010

Intensity, magnitude, location and attenuation in India for felt earthquakes since 1762

A comprehensive, consistently interpreted new catalog of felt intensities for India (Martin and Szeliga, 2010, this issue) includes intensities for 570 earthquakes; instrumental magnitudes and locations are available for 100 of these events. We use the intensity values for 29 of the instrumentally recorded events to develop new intensity versus attenuation relations for the Indian subcontinent and the Himalayan region. We then use these relations to determine the locations and magnitudes of 234 historical events, using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997). For the remaining 336 events, intensity distributions are too sparse to determine magnitude or location. We evaluate magnitude and location accuracy of newly located events by comparing the instrumental- with the intensity-derived location for 29 calibration events, for which more than 15 intensity observations are available. With few exceptions, most intensity-derived locations lie within a fault length of the instrumentally determined location. For events in which the azimuthal distribution of intensities is limited, we conclude that the formal error bounds from the regression of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) do not reflect the true uncertainties. We also find that the regression underestimates the uncertainties of the location and magnitude of the 1819 Allah Bund earthquake, for which a location has been inferred from mapped surface deformation. Comparing our inferred attenuation relations to those developed for other regions, we find that attenuation for Himalayan events is comparable to intensity attenuation in California (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997), while intensity attenuation for cratonic events is higher than intensity attenuation reported for central/eastern North America (Bakun et al. , 2003). Further, we present evidence that intensities of intraplate earthquakes have a nonlinear dependence on magnitude such that attenuation relations based largely on small-to-moderate earthquakes may significantly overestimate the magnitudes of historical earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1997

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Aftershocks and postseismic effects

While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

California↗
USGS1994

Slip triggered on southern California faults by the 1992 Joshua Tree, Landers, and big bear earthquakes

Five out of six functioning creepmeters on southern California faults recorded slip triggered at the time of some or all of the three largest events of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence. Digital creep data indicate that dextral slip was triggered within 1 min of each mainshock and that maximum slip velocities occurred 2 to 3 min later. The duration of triggered slip events ranged from a few hours to several weeks. We note that triggered slip occurs commonly on faults that exhibit fault creep. To account for the observation that slip can be triggered repeatedly on a fault, we propose that the amplitude of triggered slip may be proportional to the depth of slip in the creep event and to the available near-surface tectonic strain that would otherwise eventually be released as fault creep. We advance the notion that seismic surface waves, perhaps amplified by sediments, generate transient local conditions that favor the release of tectonic strain to varying depths. Synthetic strain seismograms are presented that suggest increased pore pressure during periods of fault-normal contraction may be responsible for triggered slip, since maximum dextral shear strain transients correspond to times of maximum fault-normal contraction.

California↗