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Robert O. Burford

Publications and source records attributed to Robert O. Burford.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Aseismic slip on the San Andreas Fault south of Loma Prieta

Two digital creepmeters installed within the San Andreas fault zone after the 18 Oct 1989 Loma Prieta main shock show less than 1 cm of post seismic right-lateral slip in the four months following the earthquake. At Mt. Madonna road a 23 mm coseismic fracture slipped a further 3 mm after heavy rain, and at Nyland Ranch near San Juan Bautista the fault slipped approximately 9 mm starting 42 days after the main shock. If the current trend at Nyland Ranch persists, more than 2 cm of post seismic slip will develop by 1991. At both sites minor left-lateral displacements occurred which are attributed to near-surface soil effects. The abutments of the railroad bridge across the Pajaro River at Chittenden, which were extended by the 1906 earthquake, were not extended during the Loma Prieta event although they have evidently moved apart by more than 7 cm since bridge reconstruction in 1940. This corresponds to 10 cm of right-lateral slip which could be related to M>5 events in mid-century or could be due to aseismic slip at a mean rate of 2.1 mm/a. The absence of significant surface slip within the fault zone in the decades before and the months following the Loma Prieta event suggests either that near-surface deformation is distributed over a wide zone or that a slip deficit remains. Several authors have proposed this region as a future location for M≈5 events.

California↗
USGS2012

Variations in fault slip and strain accumulation at Parkfield, California: Initial results using two-color geodimeter measurements 1984-1988

Repeated length measurements of several geodetic baselines near Parkfield, California, have revealed significant variations in the local rates of shallow fault slip and strain. This network of baselines, surveyed several times each week, straddles the San Andreas fault in the transition zone between the creeping section to the northwest and the locked section to the southeast. The length measurements, characterized by a precision approaching 0.1 ppm, reveal large fluctuations in the rates of baseline extension. Principal mode analysis of the length change data indicates that the two largest components of the signal are (1) secular extensions and contractions consistent with surface slip on the main strand of the San Andreas fault, and (2) a large seasonal oscillation with no obvious spatial coherence. On most of these baselines, the second component appears to be in phase with seasonal rainfall. When data from the baselines with the largest amplitude of the seasonal signal are excluded, the remaining data can be modeled in terms of both spatial and temporal variations in surface slip, variations in the components of the changes in uniform strain, and the possible displacement of the central monument in this radial network. In parameterizing this model, the spatial variation of slip beneath the near surface is reflected by changes in shear strain. Although the computed secular shear is highly dependent upon the specified parameterization of surface slip, the data are consistent with the hypothesis that slip at intermediate depths lags behind the surface slip rate. However, the range in models that fit the data does not necessarily imply that there is a deficit in slip at depth relative to the surface. Comparison of the inferred values of surface slip from the model with the observed fault slip measured by very short baseline creep meters indicates close agreement in secular rates, but the short-term variations observed with the creep meters are either highly attenuated or nonexistent in the modeled slip since the modeled slip is a spatial average which smooths out possible short-wavelength variations in the surface slip for which the creep instruments are most sensitive. An interesting conclusion from the two-color data is that surface slip on the San Andreas fault appears to be spread over a 2-km-wide zone on the south flank of Middle Mountain but is confined to a very narrow zone to the south as the fault passes through the center of the network. This conclusion is dependent upon the assumption that a few critical monuments are stable and track tectonic displacements in the long term. Finally, the largest observed strain change is an extensional strain coincident with the Kettleman Hills earthquake M 5.5 in August 1985.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS1990

Decrease in deformation rate as a possible precursor to the next Parkfield earthquake

Crustal deformations along fault zones are monitored because they show the accumulation and possible premonitory release of strain energy before major earthquakes. On the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault the next mainshock (local magnitude M L =5.7) is expected to occur between 1983 and 1993, based on the relatively regular recurrence of characteristic earthquakes in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934 and 1966 1 . A concerted monitoring effort is therefore underway at Parkfield, with the aim of detecting precursory changes in observable quantities that can be measured reliably 2 . Here we report data from two geodetic lines crossing the San Andreas fault near Parkfield which show that the rate of shortening decreased by ˜20% starting in August 1986. This change coincided with a rate decrease of 45% for earthquakes of M L ⩾ 2.1 in the area 3,4 . Both phenomena may have been caused by temporary locking of the fault surface, or a decrease in strain accumulation rate, and they are interpreted as intermediate-term precursors to the next Parkfield earthquake.

California↗
USGS1988

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for the past 5 years. Retardations with durations of 21 and 19 months also occurred at Shore Road before the 1974 and 1984 earthquakes of ML=5.2 and ML=6.2, respectively. Although creep retardation remains poorly understood, several possible explanations have been discussed previously. (1) Certain onsets of apparent creep retardation may be explained as abrupt terminations of afterslip generated from previous moderate-mainshock sequences. (2) Retardations may be related to significant decreases in the rate of seismic and/or aseismic slip occurring within or beneath the underlying seismogenic zone. Such decreases may be caused by changes in local conditions related to growth of asperities, strain hardening, or dilatancy, or perhaps by passage of stress-waves or other fluctuations in driving stresses. (3) Finally, creep rates may be lowered (or increased) by stresses imposed on the fault by seismic or aseismic slip on neighboring faults. In addition to causing creep-rate increases or retardations, such fault interactions occasionally may trigger earthquakes. Regardless of the actual mechanisms involved and the current lack of understanding of creep retardation, it appears that shallow fault creep is sensitive to local and regional effects that promote or accompany intermediate-term preparation stages leading to moderate earthquakes. A strategy for more complete monitoring of fault creep, wherever it is known to occur, therefore should be assigned a higher priority in our continuing efforts to test various hypotheses concerning the mechanical relations between seismic and aseismic slip. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1988

The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples

Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the seismogenic layer under XMM1 was given a finite breaking strength of sufficient magnitude to produce a Parkfield-like earthquake every 22 years. When stress changes equivalent to a Coalinga earthquake were superposed on the model running in a steady state mode, the effect was to make a segment under XMM1, that could slip in a linear viscous fashion, creep LL and to delay the onset of the next Parkfield-like earthquake by a year or more. If static stress changes imposed by earthquakes off the San Andreas can indeed advance or delay earthquakes on the San Andreas by months or years, then such changes must be considered in intermediate-term prediction efforts. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1987

Occurrence of a predicted earthquake on the San Andreas fault

In May 1985 we predicted 1 that an earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Stone Canyon, California within a year. The prediction was based on the observation of seismic quiescence–defined as a significant decrease in the average occurrence rate of earthquakes within the source volume of the future mainshock. A mainshock of magnitude M L = 4.6 occurred on 31 May 1986, rupturing exactly the specified segment of the fault. This is the first successful prediction of an earthquake along the San Andreas fault, and the probability to have come true by chance is <5%. Although the prediction addressed only a small main-shock, its success was significant because the location, size and occurrence time were correctly specified for an earthquake in a populated area. Larger earthquakes will undoubtedly be successfully predicted by the same method in the future, but the major segments of the San Andreas fault near San Francisco and Los Angeles have such a low-background seismicity rate that the method will probably not be applicable there.

California↗
USGS1984

Vertical crustal movements in Southern California, 1974 to 1978

An extensive resurvey of most of the first-order leveling network in southern California, known as the Southern California Releveling Program (SCRP), was carried out during the first 5 months of 1978. The primary scientific purpose of these measurements was to rapidly update the vertical control record throughout a recently uplifted region of southern California in order to more thoroughly document the vertical component of tectonic movement and to provide a reliable base for comparison with future levelings. Analyses of historic first-order leveling results have clearly demonstrated that a broad crustal upwarping, largely contained within a region consisting of the Transverse Ranges province and an area along the intervening section of the San Andreas fault system, had developed between about 1959 and 1974. Unfortunately, there is strong evidence that parts of the 1978 SCRP data are contaminated by the effects of intrasurvey tectonic deformation, limited surficial failures, and, less certainly, magnetically induced systematic error associated with the use of automatic levels. However, any distortions in leveling results caused by these or other factors are not so serious as to render the SCRP data useless. In fact, the bulk of these data can be accepted at face value, and most of the remaining data can be incorporated with some caution to augment the more reliable parts of the network. The evaluation of the 1978 leveling is based on a combination of circuit-misclosures, local timing of the field observations, analysis of profiles of apparent height changes derived from comparisons with previous levelings, and an analysis of the position and orientation of the various routes in relation to the regional structural grain and the gradients of differential vertical motion established by previous investigations. Comparisons of the 1978 SCRP results with the latest of the previous surveys along each route retained in the analysis show that all but about one-third of the uplift established by leveling data from 1959 to the combined 1974/76 survey period had relaxed by early 1978 through tectonic subsidence. Subsequent limited relevelings along several of the 1978 routes show that rapid tectonic subsidence probably continued through at least early 1979. Despite the pronounced down-to-the-northeast (northeastward) tilt that developed between 1976 and early 1978, the overall shape of the uplift was well preserved. Results of repeated trilateration surveys since 1971 demonstrate that a remarkably uniform and nearly monotonic negative dilatational strain-change trend reversed abruptly between 1977 and 1979. The change from tectonic up to tectonic subsidence is associated with this reversal in horizontal strain accumulation. The reversal in strain trend was expressed as a cessation of the essentially uniaxial north-south contraction, which had been accumulating at about 2? 10 -7/yr (or 0.2 ?strain/yr), accompanied by onset of uniaxial east-west extension at about 5 ? 10 -7/yr (or 0.5 ?strain/yr). Minor earthquakes and occasional swarms of moderate earthquakes were particularly abundant during 1978 and 1979 in conspicuously mobile regions such as the eastern Transverse Ranges and the Salton Trough, areas respectively characterized by nearly complete collapse of the previous maximum uplift and by a dramatic enhancement of the previously identified tectonic subsidence.

Circular↗
USGS1981

7.3 quake in Algeria reviewed.

A team from the U.S. Geological Survey studies the surface effects of the Oct. 1980 10 shock, whose epicenter was west of Algiers, near the African Plate boundary. -Authors

Geotimes↗
USGS1980

Local magnetic field measurements and fault creep observations on the San Andreas fault

Simultaneous creep and magnetic field records have been obtained for more than 60 episodic creep events since early 1974, no clear magnetic transients or offsets, as suggested by Breiner and Kovach (1968), are observed at or up to several days before the occurrence times of these events. Although some patterns of creep onset times at adjacent stations over periods of weeks to months appear to correspond to some periods of longer term change in local magnetic field, these changes do not always occur and other groups of creep events have no corresponding changes in local magnetic field. Changes in stress related to the surface expression of episodic fault creep on the San Andreas fault can be estimated from dislocation models fit to observations of simultaneous strains and tilts at points near the fault. These stress values are generally less than 1 bar. For these stress levels and with the apparent limited extent of surface failure, tectonomagnetic models of creep events indicate that simultaneous observations of related magnetic field variations at detectable levels of a gamma or so are unlikely. Slip at greater depth may occur more smoothly and would load the near-surface material to failure. These data also argue against large-scale dilatant cracking occurring along the region of the fault presently monitored.

California↗
USGS1979

A comparison of long-baseline strain data and fault creep records obtained near Hollister, California

A comparison of creepmeter records from nine sites along a 12-km segment of the Calaveras fault near Hollister, California and long-baseline strain changes for nine lines in the Hollister multiwavelength distance-measuring (MWDM) array has established that episodes of large-scale deformation both preceded and accompanied periods of creep activity monitored along the fault trace during 1976. A concept of episodic, deep-seated aseismic slip that contributes to loading and subsequent aseismic failure of shallow parts of the fault plane seems attractive, implying that the character of aseismic slip sensed along the surface trace may be restricted to a relatively shallow (~ 1-km) region on the fault plane. Preliminary results from simple dislocation models designed to test the concept demonstrate that extending the time-histories and amplitudes of creep events sensed along the fault trace to depths of up to 10 km on the fault plane cannot simulate adequately the character and amplitudes of large-scale episodic movements observed at points more than 1 km from the fault. Properties of a 2–3-km-thick layer of unconsolidated sediments present in Hollister Valley, combined with an essentially rigid-block behavior in buried basement blocks, might be employed in the formulation of more appropriate models that could predict patterns of shallow fault creep and large-scale displacements much more like those actually observed.

California↗
USGS1979

Earthquake recurrence on the Calaveras fault east of San Jose, California

Occurrence of small (3 ⩽ M L < 4) earthquakes on two 10-km segments of the Calaveras fault between Calaveras and Anderson reservoirs follows a simple linear pattern of elastic strain accumulation and release. The centers of these independent patches of earthquake activity are 20 km apart. Each region is characterized by a constant rate of seismic slip as computed from earthquake magnitudes, and is assumed to be an isolated locked patch on a creeping fault surface. By calculating seismic slip rates and the amount of seismic slip since the time of the last significant ( M ⩾ 3) earthquake, it is possible to estimate the most likely date of the next ( M ⩾- 3) event on each patch. The larger the last significant event, the longer the time until the next one. The recurrence time also appears to be increased according to the moment of smaller (2 < M L < 3) events in the interim. The anticipated times of future larger events on each patch, on the basis of preliminary location data through May 1977 and estimates of interim activity, are tabulated below with standard errors. The occurrence time for the southern zone is based on eight recurrent events since 1969, the northern zone on only three. The 95% confidence limits can be estimated as twice the standard error of the projected least-squares line. Events of M ⩾ 3 should not occur in the specified zones at times outside these limits. The central region between the two zones was the locus of two events ( M = 3.6, 3.3) on July 3, 1977. These events occurred prior to a window based on the three point, post-1969 slip-time line for the central region.

California↗
USGS1977

Empirical law for fault-creep events

Fault-creep events measured on the San Andreas and related faults near Hollister, California, can be described by a rheological model consisting of a spring, power-law dashpotand sliding block connected in series. An empirical creep-event law, derived from many creep-event records analyzed within the constraints of the model, provides a remarkably simple and accurate representation of creep-event behavior. The empirical creep law is expressed by the equation: D ( t )= D f [1−1/{ ct ( n −1) D f n −1 +1}/ ( n −1) ] where D is the value of displacement at time t following the onset of an event, D f is the final equilibrium value of the event displacementand C is a proportionality constant. This discovery should help determine whether the time—displacement character of creep events is controlled by the material properties of fault gouge, or by other parameters.

California↗