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Robert C. Dobbs

Publications and source records attributed to Robert C. Dobbs.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Assessing survey design for long-term population trend detection in piping plovers

Determining appropriate spatio-temporal scales for monitoring migratory shorebirds is challenging. Effective surveys must detect population trends without excessive or insufficient sampling, yet many programs lack formal evaluations of survey effectiveness. Using data from 2012 to 2019 on Louisiana’s barrier islands (Whiskey, west Raccoon, east Raccoon, and Trinity), we assessed how spatial and temporal scales influence population trend inference for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). Point count data were aggregated to grid sizes from 50 to 200 m and analyzed using Bayesian dynamic occupancy models. We found occupancy and colonization estimates varied by spatial resolution, with space–time autocorrelation common across scales. Smaller islands (east and west Raccoon) yielded higher trend detection power due to better detectability, while larger islands (Trinity and Whiskey) showed lower power. Detectability, more than sampling frequency, drove trend inference. Models incorporating spatial autocorrelation outperformed traditional Frequentist approaches but showed poorer fit at coarser scales. These findings underscore how matching analytical scale to ecological processes and selecting appropriate models can influence predictions. Power analysis revealed that increasing survey frequency may improve inference, especially in low-detectability areas. Overall, our study highlights how careful scale selection, model diagnostics, and survey design can enhance monitoring efficiency and support long-term conservation of migratory shorebirds.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

Piping Plover home ranges do not appear to be impacted by restoration of barrier islands and headlands

Restoration of barrier island and headland habitats can alter existing and create new habitats, which may impact wildlife occupying these areas such as the threatened Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ). We used resight data from banded birds to develop minimum convex polygon (MCP) and kernel density estimates (KDE) of individual Piping Plover home ranges to investigate whether changes in habitat use resulted from restoration activities at Whiskey Island and Caminada Headland, Louisiana. We quantified home range areas for each season and compared changes among pre-restoration, active restoration, and post-restoration phases at each site. We had sufficient sample sizes from Whiskey Island to compare home ranges derived by MCP during the pre-restoration phase to the active restoration phase. However, we did not have enough resight data to analyze post-restoration phase by MCP or any phase by KDE at Whiskey Island. For Caminada Headland, we were able to compare all phases of restoration using MCP, but only had sufficient data to compare pre-restoration and active restoration phases using KDE. Aside from one significant decrease in core (50% isopleth) home range at Caminada Headland when comparing MCPs between post-restoration (∼8 ha) and pre-restoration (∼11 ha) phases, we found no other differences in home range size across phases at either of our study sites. The sum of all evidence generally indicating no change to Piping Plover home range size suggests that barrier island and headland restoration did not have significant positive or negative impacts. The weak response to restoration activities further suggests that birds are using similar or smaller amounts of habitat after restoration is complete and may not need to expand their foraging range following restoration. Further study can help to understand how species of conservation concern respond to coastal restoration efforts, which is critical for establishing comprehensive conservation strategies aimed at species recovery.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2025

Understanding abundances and behaviors of shorebirds in coastal Louisiana

Barrier islands provide resources and ecological services that are integral to economic and environmental interests, such as protection of coastal infrastructure and provision of wildlife habitat. Over time, barrier islands may become eroded and experience land loss, which can require management actions to restore island integrity. Barrier island restoration can create or modify habitats, which can impact the organisms depending on them. Our objective was to understand how the abundance and behaviors of a suite of shorebird species responded to restoration and habitat factors at two restored sites in coastal Louisiana (USA). For five focal species, we used abundance from the breeding and non-breeding seasons as well as breeding, foraging, and maintenance behaviors as response variables in boosted regression tree models to determine the importance of various geospatial and remotely sensed predictor variables related to restoration. Across sites and species, remotely sensed variables, particularly a brightness index, tended to be more important than restoration phases as predictors of bird abundance and behavior. Our results suggest that sediment composition, moisture, and vegetative cover are related to shorebird coastal habitat selection, although the direction and strength of relationships differ among these variables and our focal species. Tying these remote sensing metrics to restoration design and management actions can help land managers better understand factors that attract and benefit birds. Additional research can advance understanding in how remote sensing can be used to monitor the availability of functional habitats for shorebirds.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2025

Early season tropical cyclones affect birds breeding on a barrier island

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets ( Tringa semipalmata ) to 105 Wilson’s Plover ( Anarhynchus wilsoni a) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

Shorebird monitoring using spatially explicit occupancy and abundance

Loss of habitat and human disturbance are major factors in the worldwide decline of shorebird populations, including that of the threatened migratory piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ). From 2013 to 2018, we conducted land-based surveys of the shorebird community every other week during the peak piping plover season (September to March). We assessed the ability of a thin plate spline occupancy model to identify hotspot locations on Whiskey Island, Louisiana, for the piping plover and four additional shorebird species (Wilson’s plover ( Charadrius wilsonia ), snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), American oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), and red knot ( Calidris canutus )). By fitting single-species occupancy models with geographic thin plate spline parameters, hotspot priority regions for conserving piping plovers and the multispecies shorebird assemblage were identified on the island. The occupancy environmental covariate, distance to the coastline, was weakly fitting, where the spatially explicit models were heavily dependent on the spatial spline parameter for distribution estimation. Additionally, the detectability parameters for Julian date and tide stage affected model estimations, resulting in seemingly inflated estimates compared to assuming perfect detection. The models predicted species distributions, biodiversity, high-use habitats for conservation, and multispecies conservation areas using a thin-plate spline for spatially explicit estimation without significant landscape variables, demonstrating the applicability of this modeling approach for defining areas on a landscape that are more heavily used by a species or multiple species.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

Site occupancy of focal shorebird species at Whiskey Island and Caminada Headland, Louisiana 2012–2020

Coastal restoration through island construction and augmentation is an increasingly common management method in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but evaluating the impacts to shorebird species is difficult. Shorebirds are mostly migratory and many aspects of their life history, including reproduction in some species, occur in other places. In addition, counts or observations of shorebirds made at any given time represent only a portion of the population and that proportion may change with site conditions such as time of day and weather. Dynamic occupancy models can account for imperfect detection and produce estimates of the proportion of area occupied over time as a way to track trends in bird utilization over time. In this chapter we report on occupancy trends for five focal shorebird species from Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island: American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ), Red Knot ( Calidris canutus ), Snowy Plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), and Wilson’s Plover ( Charadrius wilsonia ). We examined up to nine years of surveys at the two sites to model long-term trends in occupancy rates from a period spanning before, during, and after restoration. Our objective was to determine if there was change in occupancy over time (trend) during the restoration period. Field sampling was conducted as described in Chapter 1 for the five focal species in this chapter. To create spatial units for occupancy analysis we used a grid of 53 unique cells at Caminada Headland and 26 unique cells at Whiskey Island. All observations of the species were located into spatial units using GIS and presence of each species in each cell was determined for each visit within a sampling season. Sampling seasons were defined for species as the period of time where they were most likely to be using the study area, and corresponded with wintering (August–May), breeding (April–August), or staging (March–October). We did not include covariates for initial occupancy or colonization and site survival because these were small sites with homogenous habitat. We did account for time of year within a season by treating survey date as a covariate of detection probability and allowed it to vary throughout the season. We tested for a trend in occupancy over time by determining if the estimated slope through the series of annual occupancy estimates was significantly different from 0. We conducted 153 total surveys at Caminada Headland from 11 January 2013 to 5 June 2019, and 213 total surveys at Whiskey Island from 7 August 2012 to 19 August 2020. The number of surveys per year varied by species and site and range from 6–23 per species annually at Caminada Headland and 11–28 per species annually at Whiskey Island. Occupancy trends were able to be assessed for all species at both sites, with the exception of the American Oystercatcher, which were only observed in sufficient numbers to estimate occupancy at Whiskey Island. We found a significant positive trend in occupancy from 0.325 to 0.741 for American Oystercatcher at Whiskey Island. There was no significant trend in Piping Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland where occupancy was consistently high (0.910 to 0.947). At Whiskey Island, Piping Plover occupancy estimates increased from 0.574 to 0.908 during the study period which was a significant increase. At Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island Red Knot occupancy varied from 0.482 to 0.891 and 0.350 to 0.742, respectively, but showed no significant trend over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland increased significantly from 0.295 to 0.785 over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy also increased significantly at Whiskey Island from 0.442 to 0.906. Wilson’s Plover occupancy declined slightly during the study period from 0.946 to 0.935 at Caminada Headland, and from 0.858 to 0.736 at Whiskey Island, but the decline was not significant at either site. We found no evidence that occupancy declined significantly for any of the species during the period prior to, during, and after restoration. We did find a significant increasing trend in occupancy for Snowy Plover at Caminada Headland and a significant increasing trend for American Oystercatcher, Piping Plover, and Snowy Plover at Whiskey Island. Our modeling results indicate that sampling such as this is sufficient for occupancy modeling and can provide a robust metric for comparison over time or among sites. In future research we plan to investigate the sample size needed to detect a trend. We are currently conducting a power analysis to determine the minimum amount of sampling necessary to have power to detect a trend based on the detection probabilities from this study.

Report↗
USGS2020

Structural impacts, carbon losses, and regeneration in mangrove wetlands after two hurricanes on St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

Hurricanes Irma and Maria ravaged the mangroves of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, in 2017. Basal area losses were large (63–100%) and storm losses of carbon associated with aboveground biomass amounted to 11.9–43.5 Mg C/ha. Carbon biomass of dead standing trees increased 8.1–18.3 Mg C/ha among sites, and carbon in coarse woody debris on the forest floor increased 1.9–18.2 Mg C/ha, with effects varying by mangrove typology. While St. John has only ~45 ha of mangroves, they exist as isolated basins, salt ponds, and fringe mangroves; the latter sometimes support diverse marine communities. Salt pond and fringe mangroves had proportionately more organic carbon (46.3 Mg C/ha) than inorganic carbon (1.1 Mg C/ha) in soils than isolated basins. Soil organic carbon was also appreciable in isolated basins (30.8 Mg C/ha) but was matched by inorganic C (36.7 Mg C/ha), possibly due to adjacent land use history (e.g., road construction), previous storm overwash, or geomorphology. Soil nitrogen stocks were low across all typologies. Mangroves had limited regeneration 26 months after the storms, and recovery on St. John may be hindered by pre-storm hydrologic change in some stands, and potential genetic bottlenecks and lack of propagule sources for expedient recovery in all stands.

St Johns↗
USGS2019

Limpkin, Aramus guarauna (L., 1766) (Gruiformes, Aramidae), extralimital breeding in Louisiana is associated with availability of the invasive Giant Apple Snail, Pomacea maculata Perry, 1810 (Caenogastropoda, Ampullariidae)

We document the first breeding record of Limpkin, Aramus guarauna (Linnaeus, 1766) (Gruiformes, Aramidae), for Louisiana, describe an additional unpublished breeding record from Georgia, as well as a possible record from Alabama, and associate these patterns with the concurrent establishment of the invasive Giant Apple Snail, Pomacea maculata Perry, 1810 (Caenogastropoda, Ampullariidae). We predict that an invasive prey species may facilitate range expansion by native predator species, which has ramifications for conservation and management.

Louisiana↗