Rob Found | USGS Science

USGS2026

Abundance, trends, and challenges facing mountain goats throughout their North American distribution

Recent declines among some mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ) populations have heightened concern about their current status and ability to cope with future challenges. We conducted a range-wide assessment of the status of mountain goats across their distribution to understand the extent and patterns of change in recent years. We queried states, provinces, National Parks, and Indigenous governments with territories and reserves containing local wild populations, requesting updates on estimated mountain goat abundance and trends over time, as well as qualitative assessments of conservation challenges. We supplemented the questionnaires with existing literature (both published and available from agency websites). We subjected a subset of mountain goat population time−series to exploratory meta-analyses, examining covariates associated with rates of change. Respondents identified 203 units within which estimates were documented, a majority of which were raw counts from aircraft; fewer jurisdictions used site-specific sightability models, mark-recapture statistics, or other approaches to account for imperfect detection. Jurisdictions updated unit-specific estimates on average every 4.0 years (SD = 2.9, Min–Max = 1–24 years). Among 152 qualitative estimates of trends of native populations, 3% were reported as having increased substantially, 10% as having increased slightly, 24% as having declined slightly, and 14% as having declined substantially (49% reported either no detectable trend or insufficient data to identify a trend). Among 133 estimates of trends of introduced or pioneering populations, 5% increased substantially, 24% increased slightly, 20% declined slightly, and 11% declined substantially (40% reported no detectable trend). Jurisdiction-wide abundance estimates were lower than those previously published in all jurisdictions except Colorado and Oregon, and in Alaska, where trends were unclear. Intrinsic rates of increase ( r ) were positively associated with the population being introduced or pioneering, negatively associated with heavy snow and, to a lesser extent, with drought, but were not associated with abundance or presence of hunter harvest. Existing evidence suggested that many local populations, especially native populations, have declined, but understanding of specific causes has been constrained by limited monitoring capacity. Greater spatiotemporal monitoring effort and detailed studies would inform appropriate strategies to address threats and future challenges to mountain goats.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2025

Evaluating mountain goat population structure in Glacier National Park and Waterton Lakes National Park

Mountain goats are an iconic, climate-sensitive species across their North American alpine range. Among its nearly complete complement of native wildlife, no single species embodies Glacier National Park (GNP) more than the mountain goat. They play an important role as an alpine food source for many of the park’s carnivores including wolverines, mountain lions, and grizzly bears. Mountain goats face many increasing threats, particularly at the southern extent of their range. These include changes in precipitation and temperature, shifts in forage and fire frequency and intensity, and rapidly increasing visitation and recreation. Although the high latitude and elevations of GNP offer refugia, the mountain goat population likely declined between 2008 and 2019 and may also have a smaller distribution. In Montana, many other native mountain goat populations are also declining or have disappeared entirely. Using a combination of staff and citizen scientists, we collected fecal pellets across GNP in Montana, USA, and adjoining Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) in Alberta, Canada, between 2019 and 2023. We used genotypes of 6 to 19 loci microsatellites to identify individuals and assess isolation by distance, genetic structure, and genetic diversity. We found no evidence of genetic structure and only limited isolation by distance. This suggests that mountain goats in GNP and WLNP can be considered a single population, so samples can be combined across the area to estimate a single population size. Genetic diversity was similar to recent mountain goat studies conducted in other regions; allelic richness was 3.54 and inbreeding coefficients ( F IS ) ranged from 0.01–0.19, with values >0.11 only in the Livingston Range in the northwest of the study area. The high F IS in the Livingston Range suggests several closely related groups with little interchange, and perhaps a recent decrease in gene flow, both of which are consistent with a recent population decline in that area. We detected a high number of closely related individuals throughout our study area, consistent with the high adult survival, low reproductive success life history of goats, but also suggesting that we sampled much of the overall population.

Alberta, Montana↗