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Geology topics

Richard B. Lanctot

Publications and source records attributed to Richard B. Lanctot.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

The collective application of shorebird tracking data to conservation

Addressing urgent conservation issues, such as the drastic declines of North American migratory birds, requires creative, evidence-based, efficient, and collaborative approaches. The abundance of over 50% of monitored North American shorebird populations has declined by over 50% since 1980. To address these declines, we developed a partnership of scientists and practitioners called the Shorebird Science and Conservation Collective (hereafter the collective ). The collective was founded to translate the combined findings of shorebird tracking data into on-the-ground conservation action. With advice from an advisory group, the collective acts as an intermediary whereby dedicated staff collate and analyze data contributions from scientists to support knowledge requests from conservation practitioners. In its first three years, data contributions from 75 organizations include over 7.1 million shorebird observations forming movement paths of 3420 individuals representing 36 species tracked across the Americas and have informed 18 conservation projects spanning education, land and species management, land conservation, and policy requests. Others engaged in translational science from big data could consider similar knowledge-sharing models that prioritize usable data products, foster collaborative engagement between science experts and practitioners, build focused communities around topics or taxonomic groups, and employ a proof-of-concept phase to develop scalable solutions while making progress toward long-term funding to sustain impact. As the volume of scientific data continues to grow, intermediaries, such as the collective, can be vital liaisons to rapidly integrate and interpret research to support conservation action. Dedicated to the memory of Shiloh Schulte and his conservation achievements for shorebirds.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2026

Breeding shorebird surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, suggest population declines over two decades for most species

Shorebird populations are declining globally but it generally remains unclear how those declines translate to changes at the regional scale. We conducted the first longitudinal surveys of breeding shorebirds in Alaska under the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM), resurveying the Coastal Plain (1002 Area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in 2019 and 2022 to compare with initial surveys conducted in 2002 and 2004. Our goals were to (1) estimate contemporary population sizes of breeding shorebirds across this 6,249 km 2 area, and (2) assess population trends for the species detected in both survey periods. We estimated population sizes for 16 species, with a combined total of 135,178 (95% CI: 113,532–156,824) in 2019 and 2022—a decline of approximately 17% (90% CI: –34% to + 3%) from 2002 and 2004 when the same survey methods were used. Four species showed a statistically significant decrease (α = 0.10): Calidris alpina arcticola (Dunlin), Limnodromus scolopaceus (Long-billed Dowitcher), Phalaropus lobatus (Red-necked Phalarope), and P. fulicarius (Red Phalarope). Only C. melanotos (Pectoral Sandpiper) showed a significant increase. Overall, 5 of 10 species—and all species combined—had a > 90% probability of decline. Population changes for the polygamous species (i.e., Phalaropus sp. and C. melanotos ), which show irruptive breeding and low breeding site fidelity, may reflect temporary immigration or emigration driven by annual environmental variation, rather than true population change. Nevertheless, the overall pattern of declines aligns with migration surveys outside the Arctic. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Arctic-breeding shorebirds to threats throughout their annual cycles and underscore the potential for sustained long-term monitoring in this rapidly changing region to inform effective, flyway-scale conservation strategies across the Western Hemisphere.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Sod farms drive habitat selection of a migratory grassland shorebird during a critical stopover period

Migratory shorebirds are one of the fastest declining groups of North American avifauna. Yet, relatively little is known about how these species select habitat during migration. We explored the habitat selection of Buff-breasted Sandpipers ( Calidris subruficollis ) during spring and fall migration through the Texas Coastal Plain, a major stopover region for this species. Using tracking data from 118 birds compiled over 4 years, we found Buff-breasted Sandpipers selected intensively managed crops such as sod and short-stature crop fields, but generally avoided rangeland and areas near trees and shrubs. This work supports prior studies that also indicate the importance of short-stature vegetation for this species. Use of sod and corn varied by season, with birds preferring sod in spring, and avoiding corn when it is tall, but selecting for corn in fall after harvest. This dependence on cropland in the Texas Coastal Plain is contrary to habitat use observed in other parts of their non-breeding range, where rangelands are used extensively. The species' almost complete reliance on a highly specialized crop, sod, at this critical stopover site raises concerns about potential exposure to contaminants as well as questions about whether current management practices are providing suitable conditions for migratory grassland birds.

Texas↗
USGS2024

The Amazon Basin’s rivers and lakes support Nearctic-breeding shorebirds during southward migration

Identifying the migration routes and stopover sites used by declining species is critical for developing targeted conservation actions. Long-distance migratory shorebirds are among the groups of birds declining most rapidly, yet we frequently lack detailed knowledge about the routes and stopover sites they use during their hemisphere-spanning migrations. This is especially true for species that migrate through mid-continental regions in the Western Hemisphere. We therefore used satellite transmitters to track 212 individuals of 6 shorebird species during their southward migrations— Pluvialis dominica (American Golden-Plover), Limosa haemastica (Hudsonian Godwit), Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs), and Calidris subruficollis (Buff-breasted Sandpiper), C. melanotos (Pectoral Sandpiper), and Bartramia longicauda (Upland Sandpiper)—as they crossed the Amazon Basin of South America, a region from which reports of shorebird numbers are increasing but remain relatively rare. Our results make clear that the Amazon Basin provides stopover habitat for a large number of shorebirds: more than 74% of individuals tracked crossing the Amazon Basin stopped over in the region for an average of 2–14 days, with some spending the entire nonbreeding season there. All species selected stopover sites along the region’s many rivers and lakes, while within stopover sites each species exhibited distinct habitat preferences. The timing of stopovers within sub-basins of the Amazon Basin also coincided with periods of low water, when the muddy, shallow water habitats preferred by most shorebirds are likely plentiful. Together, our results highlight the need for detailed investigations into shorebird abundance and distribution within the Amazon Basin, threats to shorebirds within particular subbasins, and links between shorebird conservation efforts and those targeting the myriad other species that inhabit this dynamic, hyper-diverse region.

Amazon Basin↗
USGS2024

A circumpolar study unveils a positive non-linear effect of temperature on arctic arthropod availability that may reduce the risk of warming-induced trophic mismatch for breeding shorebirds

Seasonally abundant arthropods are a crucial food source for many migratory birds that breed in the Arctic. In cold environments, the growth and emergence of arthropods are particularly tied to temperature. Thus, the phenology of arthropods is anticipated to undergo a rapid change in response to a warming climate, potentially leading to a trophic mismatch between migratory insectivorous birds and their prey. Using data from 19 sites spanning a wide temperature gradient from the Subarctic to the High Arctic, we investigated the effects of temperature on the phenology and biomass of arthropods available to shorebirds during their short breeding season at high latitudes. We hypothesized that prolonged exposure to warmer summer temperatures would generate earlier peaks in arthropod biomass, as well as higher peak and seasonal biomass. Across the temperature gradient encompassed by our study sites (>10°C in average summer temperatures), we found a 3-day shift in average peak date for every increment of 80 cumulative thawing degree-days. Interestingly, we found a linear relationship between temperature and arthropod biomass only below temperature thresholds. Higher temperatures were associated with higher peak and seasonal biomass below 106 and 177 cumulative thawing degree-days, respectively, between June 5 and July 15. Beyond these thresholds, no relationship was observed between temperature and arthropod biomass. Our results suggest that prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures can positively influence prey availability for some arctic birds. This positive effect could, in part, stem from changes in arthropod assemblages and may reduce the risk of trophic mismatch.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

A phylogeographical study of the discontinuously distributed Harlequin Duck (Histrionicus histrionicus)

Species distributions are often indicative of historical biogeographical events and contemporary spatial biodiversity patterns. The Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus is a sea duck of conservation concern that has a disjunct distribution, with discrete portions of its range associated with northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Movement data indicate migratory connectivity within regions of each ocean basin but not cross-continent dispersal, suggesting that genetic structuring could exist at multiple spatial scales. Little is known regarding the impacts of past vicariance events on the species phylogeographical structure and historical demography, or rates of gene flow at different spatial scales. We used data from microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to quantify levels of genetic diversity within, and the extent of spatial genetic differentiation among locations sampled at multiple spatial scales across the species range. Samples were collected at nonbreeding locations, which represent groupings appropriate for characterizing genetically differentiated subgroups at regional and continental scales. Collectively, genetic data and coalescence modelling suggested that individuals colonized regions currently occupied within both ocean basins in the Holocene from a single refuge in the Atlantic. Further, it seems likely there was secondary contact with lineages derived from populations in Asia, based on the shallow species-wide mtDNA phylogeny and high incidence of recently derived private mtDNA haplotypes. Estimates of inter-location variance in microsatellite allele and mtDNA haplotype frequency were moderate and significant between western (Pacific – North America) and eastern (Atlantic – North America, Greenland and Iceland) ocean basins and among sampling groups within each ocean basin. Genetic differentiation among sampling groups was particularly evident at the species distributional margins in the Atlantic (Iceland) and the Pacific (Shemya Island) Ocean basins. Coalescent modelling results suggest that contemporary spatial genetic patterns in the species arose through the combined influences of secondary contact, shared ancestry and gene flow after the last glacial maxima.

Ibis↗
USGS2024

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Article↗
USGS2023

Alaska's climate sensitive Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta supports seven million Arctic-breeding shorebirds, including the majority of six North American populations

Baseline information about declining North American shorebird populations is essential to determine the effects of global warming at low-lying coastal areas of the Arctic and subarctic, where numerous taxa breed, and to assess population recovery throughout their range. We estimated population sizes on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea. We conducted ground-based surveys during 2015 and 2016 at 589 randomly selected plots from an area of 35,769 km 2 . We used stratified random sampling in 8 physiographic strata and corrected population estimates using detection ratios derived from double sampling on a subset of plots. We detected 11,110 breeding individuals of 21 taxa. Western Sandpiper ( Calidris mauri ), Red-necked Phalarope ( Phalaropus lobatus ), Dunlin (subspecies C. alpina pacifica ), and Wilson’s Snipe ( Gallinago delicata ) were the most abundant taxa. We estimated that ~6.9 million individual shorebirds were breeding on the entire Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in 2015 and 2016. Our surveys of this region provided robust population estimates (CVs ≤ 0.35) for 14 species. Our results indicate that the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta supports a large proportion of North America’s breeding populations of the Pacific Golden-Plover ( Pluvialis fulva ), the western population of a Whimbrel subspecies ( Numenius phaeopus hudsonicus ), a Bar-tailed Godwit subspecies ( Limosa lapponica baueri ), Black Turnstone ( Arenaria melanocephala ), a Dunlin subspecies ( Calidris alpina pacifica ), and Western Sandpiper. Our study highlights the importance to breeding shorebirds of this relatively pristine but climatically sensitive deltaic system. Estuaries and deltaic systems worldwide are rapidly being degraded by anthropogenic activities. Our population estimates can be used to refine prior North American population estimates, determine effects of global warming, and evaluate conservation success by measuring population change over time.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

The reuse of avian samples: Opportunities, pitfalls and a solution

Tissue samples are frequently collected to study various aspects of avian biology, but in many cases these samples are not used in their entirety and are stored by the collector. The already collected samples provide a largely overlooked opportunity because they can be used by different researchers in different biological fields. Broad reuse of samples could result in multispecies or large-scale studies, interdisciplinary collaborations, and the generation of new ideas, thereby increasing the quality and impact of research. Sample reuse could also reduce the number of new samples needed for a study, which is especially pertinent to endangered species where sample collection is necessarily limited. Importantly, reusing samples may be mutually beneficial for both the researchers providing samples and those reusing them. Here, we identify the benefits of sample reuse, describe currently available sources of already collected samples and their limitations, and highlight the wide range of potential applications in a single research field – avian isotopic ecology. To facilitate the reuse of avian samples worldwide and across research fields, we introduce the AviSample Network metadata repository. The main aims of this metadata repository are to collate and provide access to descriptions of available avian tissue samples. We contend that the creation of the AviSample Network metadata repository will provide the opportunity for new collaborations and studies. Moreover, we believe that this will help create research connections between ornithologists across the globe and encourage sample reuse in other fields.

Ibis↗
USGS2021

Predictors of invertebrate biomass and rate of advancement of invertebrate phenology across eight sites in the North American Arctic

Average annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by 2–3 °C during the second half of the twentieth century. Because shorebirds initiate northward migration to Arctic nesting sites based on cues at distant wintering grounds, climate-driven changes in the phenology of Arctic invertebrates may lead to a mismatch between the nutritional demands of shorebirds and the invertebrate prey essential for egg formation and subsequent chick survival. To explore the environmental drivers affecting invertebrate availability, we modeled the biomass of invertebrates captured in modified Malaise-pitfall traps over three summers at eight Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network sites as a function of accumulated degree-days and other weather variables. To assess climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology, we used data from the nearest long-term weather stations to hindcast invertebrate availability over 63 summers, 1950–2012. Our results confirmed the importance of both accumulated and daily temperatures as predictors of invertebrate availability while also showing that wind speed negatively affected invertebrate availability at the majority of sites. Additionally, our results suggest that seasonal prey availability for Arctic shorebirds is occurring earlier and that the potential for trophic mismatch is greatest at the northernmost sites, where hindcast invertebrate phenology advanced by approximately 1–2.5 days per decade. Phenological mismatch could have long-term population-level effects on shorebird species that are unable to adjust their breeding schedules to the increasingly earlier invertebrate phenologies.

Alaska, Newfoundland, Northwest Territories↗
USGS2020

Shorebird reproductive response to exceptionally early and late springs varies across sites in Arctic Alaska

While increases in overall temperatures are widely reported in the Arctic, large inter-annual variation in spring weather, with extreme early and late conditions, is also occurring. Using data collected from three sites in Arctic Alaska, we explored how shorebird breeding density, nest initiation, nest synchrony, nest survival, and phenological mismatch varied between two exceptionally early (2015 and 2016) and late (2017 and 2018) springs. We assessed these differences in the context of long-term data from each site and whether species exhibited conservative or opportunistic reproductive strategies. Conservative shorebirds typically display nest-site fidelity and territoriality, consistent population densities, relatively even individual spacing, and monogamous mating systems with bi-parental incubation. In contrast, opportunistic shorebirds display the opposite traits, and a polygamous mating system with uniparental incubation. In this study, we evaluated 2,239 nests from 13 shorebird species, 2015–2018, and found that shorebirds of both strategies bred earlier and in higher numbers in early, warm springs relative to historic levels (based on 3,789 nests, 2005–2014); opposite trends were observed in late springs. In early springs, nests were initiated less synchronously than in late springs. Nest survival was unrelated to spring type, but was greater in earlier laid nests overall. Invertebrate food resources emerged earlier in early springs, resulting in a greater temporal asynchrony between invertebrate emergence and chick hatching in early than late springs. However, invertebrate abundance was quite variable among sites and years regardless of spring type. Overall, our results were generally consistent with predicted relationships between spring conditions and reproductive parameters. However, we detected differences among sites that could not be explained by other ecological factors (e.g., predators or alternative prey). Differences in shorebird community composition and other subtler methodological/ecological differences among sites highlight the difficulty of understanding the complex nature of these ecological systems and the importance of evaluating questions at multiple sites across multiple years. Our study demonstrates that shorebirds exhibit a high degree of behavioral flexibility in response to variable Arctic conditions, but whether this flexibility is enough to allow them to optimally track changing environmental conditions or if evolutionary adjustments will be necessary is unknown.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

After-hatch and hatch year Buff-breasted Sandpipers (Calidris subruficollis) can be sexed accurately using morphometric measures

Determining the sex of birds quickly in the field can help in studies of behavior and distribution, and when selecting particular sexes for deploying tracking devices or collecting samples. However, discerning males from females is difficult in species that are plumage monomorphic and have overlapping sexual-size dimorphism, as in Buff-breasted Sandpipers Calidris subruficollis . We developed three discriminant functions to sex Buff-breasted Sandpipers based on measurements of live birds captured in Brazil whose sex was confirmed with molecular techniques. We validated these discriminant functions using morphometric measures from other independent samples of known-sex live birds from wintering (Brazil), migration (Texas), and breeding (Alaska) sites. Discriminant functions derived from birds captured in Brazil accurately sexed ≥88% of the validation sample from Brazil, Texas, and Alaska. Errors in classification occurred among males on the wintering (0–5%) and breeding (8–12%) grounds, and females during migration (0–11%). Discriminant functions worked well because of the substantial sexual size dimorphism present in the species, with male traits being in general 5.2–10.4% larger than female traits. The size of morphological traits did not vary by age (after controlling for sex) for birds sampled on the wintering grounds and during migration. Our results indicate that discriminant functions can be used to sex after-hatch year (AHY) Buff-breasted Sandpipers throughout their range, and for hatch year (HY) birds during their first southbound migration and winter. Being able to accurately sex both AHY and HY birds using only morphological measurements will improve studies of the ecology and population structure of this species and enhance the application of conservation measures.

Wader Study↗
USGS2020

Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain

Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies’ low annual survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality.

The Condor↗
USGS2020

Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.

Science↗
USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Effects of leg flags on nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Marking wild birds is an integral part of many field studies. However, if marks affect the vital rates or behavior of marked individuals, any conclusions reached by a study might be biased relative to the general population. Leg bands have rarely been found to have negative effects on birds and are frequently used to mark individuals. Leg flags, which are larger, heavier, and might produce more drag than bands, are commonly used on shorebirds and can help improve resighting rates. However, no one to date has assessed the possible effects of leg flags on the demographic performance of shorebirds. At seven sites in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, we marked individuals and monitored nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, including Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ), Western Sandpipers ( C. mauri ), Red‐necked Phalaropes ( Phalaropus lobatus ), and Red Phalaropes ( P. fulicarius ). We used a daily nest survival model in a Bayesian framework to test for effects of leg flags, relative to birds with only bands, on daily survival rates of 1952 nests. We found no evidence of a difference in nest survival between birds with flags and those with only bands. Our results suggest, therefore, that leg flags have little effect on the nest success of Arctic‐breeding sandpipers and phalaropes. Additional studies are needed, however, to evaluate the possible effects of flags on shorebirds that use other habitats and on survival rates of adults and chicks.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS2018

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.

Journal of Avian Biology↗