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Ramon Arrowsmith

Publications and source records attributed to Ramon Arrowsmith.

5 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Self-similar vent clustering in the Pinacate volcanic field (Sonora, Mexico and Arizona, United States)

The spatial distribution of vents in a distributed volcanic field may provide clues about the geometry of the volcanic field’s plumbing system. Distributed volcanism is characterized by magma feeders that are independent of one another, scattered over wide areas, and active for relatively short times (typically less than one hundred years). On the other hand, focused volcanism results in large volcanic edifices, forming central or shield volcanoes that are active for tens of thousands of years or longer. Whether distributed or focused, the form of volcanism may depend on several factors: magma fluxes at depth; magma composition, temperature, and viscosity; and crustal stress and strain states. Over time, some volcanic fields may shift from focused to distributed volcanism. Located in northwestern Sonora, Mexico, and southwestern Arizona, United States, the Pinacate volcanic field is made up of lava flows, 8 maars, and more than 400 cinder cones. It has been active for approximately 2 million years. The oldest features in the field are large-volume lava flows that constructed Sierra El Pinacate (known locally and referred to herein as the Santa Clara shield volcano) and formed the base of the field. Later activity took the form of monogenetic cones and maars, produced by high-alkali basalts with an ocean-island basalt chemical signature. The plumbing system of the Pinacate volcanic field, along with its relations with the structural setting of the area, are analyzed here in terms of the spatial distribution of vents, vent morphology, and main structural trends of the morphologic lineaments in the area. The spatial analysis of vents identified three clusters. The largest cluster (cluster 1) is in the north-northwest portion of the volcanic field, whereas the smallest cluster (cluster 2), formed by younger cones, is on the east side of the volcanic field. The southern cluster (cluster 3) is mainly located over the Santa Clara shield volcano. Self-similar clustering analysis was performed on the whole volcanic field, as well as on the two larger clusters (clusters 1 and 3); cluster 2 was not analyzed individually due to the small number of vents. The self-similar clustering analysis indicated that the dataset containing all the vents in the volcanic field and the dataset containing only the vents in cluster 1 (the largest cluster) have magma storage at approximately 17 kilometers (km) depth. The vents of cluster 3 indicate storage at approximately 9 km depth. The fractal exponent characterizing the self-similar clustering of cluster 3 (1.5905) is lower than the fractal exponent of cluster 1 (1.7252), implying that cluster 1 formed after cluster 3. The available absolute ages of volcanic products in the Pinacate volcanic field indicate a middle to early Pleistocene age for the vents in cluster 3, and younger ages (late Pleistocene to Holocene) for cluster 2. The cone morphology is equivocal for defining relative ages of the clusters; nevertheless, the spatial distribution of the best-preserved cones implies that northwest-southeast, north-south, and northeast-southwest trends are linked to the development of the volcanic field. Lineament mapping, as well as the shape, elongation, and orientation of inferred feeder dikes, indicates that the Pinacate volcanic field formed along a northwest-southeast, regional-scale dextral transtensional shear zone and southwestward shallowing of the Mohorovičić discontinuity to 18–20 km.

Arizona, Sonora↗
USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Spatio-temporal mapping of plate boundary faults in California using geodetic imaging

The Pacific–North American plate boundary in California is composed of a 400-km-wide network of faults and zones of distributed deformation. Earthquakes, even large ones, can occur along individual or combinations of faults within the larger plate boundary system. While research often focuses on the primary and secondary faults, holistic study of the plate boundary is required to answer several fundamental questions. How do plate boundary motions partition across California faults? How do faults within the plate boundary interact during earthquakes? What fraction of strain accumulation is relieved aseismically and does this provide limits on fault rupture propagation? Geodetic imaging, broadly defined as measurement of crustal deformation and topography of the Earth’s surface, enables assessment of topographic characteristics and the spatio-temporal behavior of the Earth’s crust. We focus here on crustal deformation observed with continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA’s airborne UAVSAR platform, and on high-resolution topography acquired from lidar and Structure from Motion (SfM) methods. Combined, these measurements are used to identify active structures, past ruptures, transient motions, and distribution of deformation. The observations inform estimates of the mechanical and geometric properties of faults. We discuss five areas in California as examples of different fault behavior, fault maturity and times within the earthquake cycle: the M6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake rupture, the San Jacinto fault, the creeping and locked Carrizo sections of the San Andreas fault, the Landers rupture in the Eastern California Shear Zone, and the convergence of the Eastern California Shear Zone and San Andreas fault in southern California. These examples indicate that distribution of crustal deformation can be measured using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and high-resolution topography and can improve our understanding of tectonic deformation and rupture characteristics within the broad plate boundary zone.

California↗