Geology topics

R.A. Garrott

Publications and source records attributed to R.A. Garrott.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

1. Life‐history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern‐most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known‐age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark–recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate’s sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long‐term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life‐history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top‐ and middle‐trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2009

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Ecology↗

USGS2006

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2002

A Geochemical Trophic Cascade in Yellowstone's Geothermal Environments

We contrast the geochemistry of the Madison drainage, which has high concentrations of geothermal features, with the Lamar drainage of Yellowstone National Park, USA, and trace the consequences of geochemical differences through abiotic and biotic linkages in the ecosystem. Waters in the geothermal-dominated drainage contained anomalously high levels of fluoride (F) and silica (SiO 2 ). Soils, stream sediments, and surface waters that interact or mix with geothermal waters, in turn, had elevated F and SiO 2 concentrations compared to similar samples from the Lamar drainage. The geochemical differences were reflected in the chemistry of forage plants, with some plants from geothermally influenced areas containing four- to eightfold higher concentrations of F and SiO 2 than similar plants in the Lamar drainage. Geothermal heat reduced snowpack, and we found that elk (Cervus elaphus) concentrated in these refugia as snowpack increased each winter. The consequent high dietary intake of F in animals associated with the geothermal areas was confirmed by the finding that bone samples from elk living in the Madison drainage contained sixfold higher concentrations of F than samples collected from animals wintering in the Lamar drainage. High F exposure resulted in compromised dentition due to fluoride toxicosis, which was undoubtedly exacerbated by the abrasive action of silica. The consequent accelerated and aberrant tooth wear resulted in early onset of senescence, reduced life span, and an abbreviated age structure. We speculate that these altered demographics, combined with spatial heterogeneity of snowpack, will result in increased vulnerability of this large herbivore population to wolf predation and less resiliency to compensate demographically for predation.

Wyoming↗