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Geology topics

R. L. Bernknopf

Publications and source records attributed to R. L. Bernknopf.

15 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An application to lateral-spread ground failure in coastal California

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

California↗
USGS2007

Analysis of improved government geological map information for mineral exploration: Incorporating efficiency, productivity, effectiveness, and risk considerations

This bulletin/professional paper focuses on the value of geoscientific information and knowledge, as provided in published government bedrock geological maps, to the mineral exploration sector. An economic model is developed that uses an attribute- ranking approach to convert geological maps into domains of mineral favourability. Information about known deposits in these (or analogous) favourability domains allow the calculation of exploration search statistics that provide input into measures of exploration efficiency, productivity, effectiveness, risk, and cost stemming from the use of the published geological maps. Two case studies, the Flin Flon Belt (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and the south Baffin Island area (Nunavut), demonstrate that updated, finer resolution maps can be used to identify more exploration campaign options, and campaigns thats are more efficient, more effective, and less risky than old, coarser resolution maps when used as a guide for mineral exploration. The Flin Flon Belt study illustrates that an updated, coarser resolution bedrock map enables improved mineral exploration efficiency, productivity, and effectiveness by locating 60% more targets and supporting an exploration campaign that is 44% more efficient. Refining the map resolution provides an additional 17% reduction in search effort across all favourable domains and a 55% reduction in search effort in the most favourable domain. The south Baffin Island case study projects a 40% increase in expected targets and a 27% reduction in search effort when the updated, finer resolution map is used in lieu of the old, coarser resolution map. On southern Baffin Island, the economic value of the up dated map ranges from CAN$2.28 million to CAN$15.21 million, which can be compared to the CAN$1.86 million that it cost to produce the map (a multiplier effect of up to eight).

Professional Paper↗
USGS2006

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Manag↗
USGS2005

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Boletin Geologico y Minero↗
USGS2004

The National Map: Benefits at what cost?

The U.S. Geological Survey has conducted a cost-benefit analysis of The National Map, and determined that, during its 30-year projected lifespan, the project will likely bring a net present value of benefits to society of $2.05 billion. Such a survey enhances the United States' ability to access, integrate, and apply geospatial data at global, national, and local scales. This paper gives an overview on the underlying economic model for evaluating program benefits and presents the primary findings as well as a sensitivity analysis assessing the robustness of the results.

GeoSpatial Solutions↗
USGS1996

Uncertainty of groundwater vulnerability assessments for agricultural regions in Hawaii: Review

There are important challenges associated with assessing potential groundwater vulnerability hazards that may result from regional scale applications of agrochemicals. The increasing availability of Geographic Information System (GIS) software to those involved in assisting with landuse decisions has resulted in the widespread production of multicolored risk management maps for many environmentally sensitive issues. Soil-based GIS's have recently been coupled to various solute-leaching models to make near-surface groundwater vulnerability assessments for guidance in pesticide regulation in several states. In general, these assessments rest on soil, climatic, and chemical data that are extremely sparse and contain considerable uncertainty. It is also important to acknowledge the uncertainty associated with the transport/fate processes that are not accounted for by the modeling approach used to make the assessment. In this paper, we review the results from a series of papers that have focused on characterization of uncertainty in pesticide mobility estimates, using the attenuation and retardation indices (AF and RF), for the Pearl Harbor Basin on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. Relative to data error uncertainties, we discuss the impacts of: (i) soil, climatic, and chemical data base uncertainties, (ii) reductions in data base uncertainties, (iii) extrapolation of soil data base information based on soil taxonomy and soil survey, and (iv) importing information from outside the region of interest. Relative to model error uncertainties, we compare pesticide leaching estimates from the simple AF and RF mobility indices with simulations from the EPA's Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) and field observations. Finally, we outline a Regional Integrated Risk Assessment approach for characterizing regional scale groundwater vulnerability for near-surface nonpoint sources.

Hawaii↗
USGS1991

Economic effects of western Federal land-use restrictions on U.S. coal markets

Current regulations on land use in the Western United States affect access to surface minable coal resources. This U.S. Geological Survey study analyzes the long-term effects of Federal land-use restrictions on the national cost of meeting future coal demands. The analysis covers 45 years. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has determined the environmental, aesthetic, and economic values of western Federal coal lands and has set aside certain areas from surface coal mining to protect other valued land uses, including agricultural, environmental, and aesthetic uses. Although there are benefits to preserving natural areas and to developing areas for other land uses, these restrictions produce long-term national and regional costs that have not been estimated previously. The Dynamic Coal Allocation Model integrates coal supply (coal resource tonnage and coal quality by mining cost for 60 coal supply regions) with coal demand (in 243 regions) for the entire United States. The model makes it possible to evaluate the regional economic impacts of coal supply restrictions wherever they might occur in the national coal market. The main factors that the economic methodology considers are (1) coal mining costs, (2) coal transportation costs, (3) coal flue gas desulfurization costs, (4) coal demand, (5) regulations to control sulfur dioxide discharges, and (6) specific reductions in coal availability occurring as a result of land-use restrictions. The modeling system combines these economic factors with coal deposit quantity and quality information--which is derived from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Coal Resources Data System and the U.S. Department of Energy's Demonstrated Reserve Base--to determine a balance between supply and demand so that coal is delivered at minimum cost.

Circular↗
USGS1990

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations.

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management↗
USGS1988

An economic and geographic appraisal of a spatial natural hazard risk: a study of landslide mitigation rules

Efficient mitigation of natural hazards requires a spatial representation of the risk, based upon the geographic distribution of physical parameters and man-related development activities. Through such a representation, the spatial probability of landslides based upon physical science concepts is estimated for Cincinnati, Ohio. Mitigation programs designed to reduce loss from landslide natural hazards are then evaluated. An optimum mitigation rule is suggested that is spatially selective and is determined by objective measurements of hillside slope and properties of the underlying soil. -Authors

Environment and Planning A↗