Geology topics
R. K. Mark
Publications and source records attributed to R. K. Mark.
A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies
A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall
A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.
Reproducibility of the K-Ar ages of rocks and minerals; an empirical approach
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Rainfall associated with the January 1982 rainstorm in the San Francisco Bay region, California
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Anasazi solar marker: The use of a natural rockfall
The midday "sun dagger" solstice and equinox marker on Fajada Butte in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, is formed by three sandstone slabs that collimate sunlight onto two spiral petroglyphs. The slabs appear to be the result of a natural rockfall and not a construct of the Chacoan Anasazi. Although neither the rockfall nor the petroglyphs can be dated accurately, it is likely that the petroglyphs were designed after the rockfall by people who observed the details of the light pattern for several annual cycles.
System dynamics simulation modeling applied to western coal development environmental impact analysis
This report, which was originally prepared in 1977 as an administrative report, evaluates the Geological Survey's first attempt to use simulation modeling in the environmental impact statement (EIS) process. It discusses the background of the modeling project, evaluates the usefulness of that project to the Northern Powder River Basin regional EIS task force, and recommends procedures for implementing future modeling efforts in regional environmental impact analyses.
FORTRAN program for Shapiro-Wilk W test for normality for Honeywell Multics System
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Computer program for a generic western coal region simulated model developed to investigate potential applications of system dynamics modeling to the EIS process
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Application of linear statistical models of earthquake magnitude versus fault length in estimating maximum expectable earthquakes
No abstract available.
Regression analysis of earthquake magnitude and surface fault length using the 1970 data of Bonilla and Buchanan
No abstract available.
Impounded-induced seismicity associated with large reservoirs
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A high 87Sr 86Sr mantle source for low alkali tholeiite, northern Great Basin
Olivine tholeiites, the youngest Tertiary units (about 8–11 m.y. old) at five widely spaced localities in northeastern Nevada, are geologically related to the basalts of the Snake River Plain, Idaho, to the north and are similar in major element and alkali chemistry to mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) and island arc tholeiites. The measured K (1250–3350 ppm), Rb (1·9–6·2 ppm) and Sr (140–240 ppm) concentrations overlap the range reported for MORB. Three of the five samples have low, unfractionated rare earth element (REE) patterns, the other two show moderate light-REE enrichment. Barium concentration is high and variable (100–780 ppm) and does not correlate with the other LIL elements. The rocks have 87 Sr / 86 Sr = 0·7052–0·7076, considerably higher than MORB (~0·702–0·703). These samples are chemically distinct (i.e. less alkalic) from the olivine tholeiites from the adjacent Snake River Plain, but their Sr isotopic compositions are similar. They contain Sr that is distinctly more radiogenic than the basalts from the adjacent Great Basin. About 10 b.y. would be required for the mean measured Rb/Sr (~ 0·02) of these samples to generate, in a closed system, the radiogenic Sr they contain. The low alkali content of these basalts makes crustal contamination an unlikely mechanism. If the magma is uncontaminated, the time-averaged Rb/Sr of the source material must have been ~0·04. A significant decrease in Rb/Sr of the source material (a factor 2̆) thus most probably occurred in the relatively recent (1̌0 9 yr) past. Such a decrease of Rb/Sr in the mantle could accompany alkali depletion produced by an episode of partial melting and magma extraction. In contrast, low 87 Sr 86 Sr "> 87Sr86Sr ratios indicate that the source material of the mid-ocean ridge basalts may have been depleted early in the Earth's history.