Geology topics

R. Hoblitt

Publications and source records attributed to R. Hoblitt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2008

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, Revised 1998

Mount Rainier at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) is the highest peak in the Cascade Range; a dormant volcano having glacier ice that exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. The volcano's past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history (about A.D. 1820) of Mount Rainier includes one or two small eruptions, several small debris avalanches, and many small lahars (debris flows originating on a volcano). In addition, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of other events, and areas that were affected. Mount Rainier deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits indicate we should anticipate potential hazards in the future. Some phenomena only occur during eruptions such as tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows while others may occur without eruptive activity such as debris avalanches, lahars, and floods. The five geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Mount Rainier volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 98-428 (Hoblitt and others, 1998) are included in this data set. Case 1, case 2, and case 3 layers were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various lahar innundation zones around the mountain. Two additional layers delineate areas that may be affected by post-lahar sedimentation (postlahar layer) and pyroclastic flows (pyroclastic layer).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Thermal observations of gas pistoning at Kilauea Volcano

Data acquired by three continuously recording thermal infrared thermometers situated on the north rim of Pu'u'O' o Crater at Kilauea Volcano during 2002 revealed episodes of periodic thermal pulses originating from a degassing vent on the crater floor. These thermal pulses are interpreted as gas release (jetting events) associated with gas pistoning, a mechanism observed previously at both Mauna Ulu and Pu'u'O' o. During a 35-day-long period spanning June and July 2002, gas pistoning was frequently the dominant mode of gas release, with as many as several hundred pulses occurring in uninterrupted series. On other days, degassing alternated between periods of quasi-continuous gas jetting and intervals of gas pistoning that contained a few to a few dozen pulses. Characteristic time intervals between pistoning events ranged from 2 up to 7 min. We identify three types of pistoning. Type 1 involves emission of lava, followed by gas jetting and drain back; type 2 is the same but the elevated position of the vent does not allow postjet drain back; and type 3 involves gas jetting only with no precursory lava flow. To explain gas pistoning, we apply a model whereby a stagnant cap of degassed magma develops in the conduit below the vent. Gas bubbles rise through the magma column and collect under the cap. The collective buoyancy of these bubbles pushes the cap upward. When the cap reaches the surface, it erupts from the vent as a lava flow. Unloading of the conduit magma in this way results in an abrupt pressure drop (i.e., the overburden felt by the bubbles is reduced), causing explosive gas expansion in the form of gas jetting from the vent. This terminates the event and lava drains back into the conduit to start the cycle anew. In the case where there is no surface lava emission or drain back, the cap instead pushes into and spreads out within a subsurface cavity. Again, this unloads the conduit magma and terminates in explosive gas release. Once gas is expelled, lava in the cavity is free to drain back. We hypothesize that pistoning is a stable mode of degassing for low-viscosity basaltic magmas with appropriate conduit geometries and volatile supply rates. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hawaii↗

USGS2005

DUCKS: Low cost thermal monitoring units for near-vent deployment

During 1999 we designed and tested a thermal monitoring system to provide a cheap, robust, modular, real-time system capable of surviving the hostile conditions encountered proximal to active volcanic vents. In November 2000 the first system was deployed at Pu'u 'O'o (Kilauea, Hawai'i) to target persistently active vents. Aside from some minor problems, such as sensor damage due to tampering, this system remained operational until January 2004. The success of the prototype system led us to use the blueprint for a second installation at Stromboli (Aeolian Islands, Italy). This was deployed, dug into a bomb-proof bunker, during May 2002 and survived the April 2003 paroxysmal eruption despite being located just 250 m from the vent. In both cases, careful waterproofing of connectors and selection of suitable protection has prevented water damage and corrosion in the harsh atmosphere encountered at the crater rim. The Pu'u 'O'o system cost ∼US$10,000 and comprises four modules: sensors, transmission and power hub, repeater station and reception site. The sensor component consists of three thermal infrared thermometers housed in Pelican™ cases fitted with Germanium–Arsenide–Selenium windows. Two 1° field of view (FOV) sensors allow specific vents to be targeted and a 60° FOV sensor provides a crater floor overview. A hard wire connection links to a Pelican™-case-housed microprocessor , modem and power module. From here data are transmitted, via a repeater site, to a dedicated PC at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory . Here data are displayed with a delay of ∼3 s between acquisition and display. The modular design allows for great flexibility. At Stromboli, 1° and 15° FOV sensor modules can be switched depending changes in activity style and crater geometry. In addition a direct line of site to the Stromboli reception center negates the repeater site requirement, reducing the cost to US$5500 for a single sensor system. We have also constructed self-contained units with internal data loggers for US$1500/unit. These have been tested at Kilauea, Stromboli, Etna, Masaya, Santiaguito, Fuego, Pacaya, Poas, Soufriere Hills, Villarrica and Erta Ale. These instruments have proved capable of detecting thermal signals associated with: (1) gas emission; (2) gas jetting events; (3) crater floor collapse; (4) lava effusion; (5) lava flow in tubes; (6) lava lake activity; (7) lava dome activity; and (8) crater lake skin temperature.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2004

Magmatic precursors to the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, USA

Perhaps the most difficult task facing volcanologists today is that of distinguishing between low-level volcanic restlessness and activity that presages a full-scale eruption. We illustrate these difficulties by reexamining the sequence of events that led to the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, activity that is often presented as a classic example of early phreatic explosions leading to a magmatic eruption. This interpretation is problematic, however, given the known ascent of juvenile magma to within ∼250 m of the surface prior to the climactic event. Reexamination of ash samples from several precursory events shows that small amounts of juvenile material were erupted as early as 28 March 1980, just two weeks after the first seismic signals of reawakening, and that the juvenile content of the ash had probably increased by early May. The magmatic component of these eruptions was not recognized at the time because of the high crystallinity of the juvenile material—a signature of extensive degassing-induced crystallization during magma ascent. Identification of juvenile material in the precursory ash from Mount St. Helens has important implications for initiation of eruptive activity.

Washington↗

USGS2004

Hawaiian volcano observatory summary 103; Part I, seismic data, January to December 2003

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during the year and a chronological narrative describing the volcanic events. The seismic summary is offered without interpretation as a source of preliminary data. It is complete in the sense that most data for events of M= 1.5 routinely gathered by the Observatory are included. The emphasis in collection of tilt and deformation data has shifted from quarterly measurements at a few water-tube tilt stations ('wet' tilt) to a larger number of continuously recording borehole tiltmeters, repeated measurements at numerous spirit-level tilt stations ('dry' tilt), and surveying of level and trilateration networks. Because of the large quantity of deformation data now gathered and differing schedules of data reduction, the seismic and deformation summaries are published separately. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data dictated an annual publication beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Summary 86 (the introduction of CUSP at HVO) includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. The present summary includes background information on the seismic network and processing to allow use of the data and to provide an understanding of how they were gathered.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2003

Oxidized sulfur-rich mafic magma at Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

Basaltic fragments enclosed in andesitic dome lavas and pyroclastic flows erupted during the early stages of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, contain amphiboles that crystallized during the injection of mafic magma into a dacitic magma body. The amphiboles contain abundant melt inclusions, which recorded the mixing of andesitic melt in the mafic magma and rhyolitic melt in the dacitic magma. The least evolved melt inclusions have high sulfur contents (up to 1,700 ppm) mostly as SO42, which suggests an oxidized state of the magma (NNO + 1.4). The intrinsically oxidized nature of the mafic magma is confirmed by spinel-olivine oxygen barometry. The value is comparable to that of the dacitic magma (NNO + 1.6). Hence, models invoking mixing as a means of releasing sulfur from the melt are not applicable to Pinatubo. Instead, the oxidized state of the dacitic magma likely reflects that of parental mafic magma and the source region in the sub-arc mantle. Our results fit a model in which long-lived SO2 discharge from underplated mafic magma accumulated in the overlying dacitic magma and immiscible aqueous fluids. The fluids were the most likely source of sulfur that was released into the atmosphere during the cataclysmic eruption. The concurrence of highly oxidized basaltic magma and disproportionate sulfur output during the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption suggests that oxidized mafic melt is an efficient medium for transferring sulfur from the mantle to shallow crustal levels and the atmosphere. As it can carry large amounts of sulfur, effectively scavenge sulfides from the source mantle and discharge SO2 during ascent, oxidized mafic magma forms arc volcanoes with high sulfur fluxes, and potentially contributes to the formation of metallic sulfide deposits.

Mount Pinatubo↗

USGS2001

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2001

Holocene geomagnetic secular variation recorded by volcanic deposits at Mount St. Helens, Washington

A compilation of paleomagnetic data from volcanic deposits of Mount St. Helens is presented in this report. The database is used to determine signature paleomagnetic directions of products from its Holocene eruptive events, to assign sampled units to their proper eruptive period, and to begin the assembly of a much larger database of paleomagnetic directions from Holocene volcanic rocks in western North America. The paleomagnetic results from Mount St. Helens are mostly of high quality, and generally agree with the division of its volcanic deposits into eruptive episodes based on previous geologic mapping and radiocarbon dates. The Muddy River andesite's paleomagnetic direction, however, indicates that it is more likely part of the Pine Creek eruptive period rather than the Castle Creek period. In addition, the Two-Fingers andesite flow is more likely part of the Middle Kalama eruptive period and not part of the Goat Rocks period. The paleomagnetic data from Mount St. Helens and Mount Hood document variation in the geomagnetic field's pole position over the last ~2,500 years. A distinct feature of the new paleosecular variation (PSV) record, similar to the Fish Lake record (Oregon), indicates a sudden change from rapid clockwise movement of the pole about the Earth's spin axis to relatively slow counterclockwise movement at ???800 to 900 years B.P.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2000

Was the 18 May 1980 lateral blast at Mt St Helens the product of two explosions?

The 18 May 1980 lateral blast at Mt St Helens has been interpreted as the product of a single explosion by some stratigraphers and as two closely spaced explosions by others. The stratigraphic evidence that bears on this question is inconclusive; strata change dramatically over short distances and this complexity provides wide latitude for interpretation. Some independent non-stratigraphic evidence, however, suggests that the blast was the product of two explosions or clusters of explosions. The independent evidence comes from eyewitness accounts and photographs, from satellite sensors, and from seismic records. This paper reviews the pertinent evidence, offers a new interpretation, and concludes that the blast was indeed the product of two explosions or clusters of explosions.

Washington↗

USGS1999

Degassing and microlite crystallization during pre-climactic events of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

Dacite tephras produced by the 1991 pre-climactic eruptive sequence at Mt. Pinatubo display extreme heterogeneity in vesicularity, ranging in clast density from 700 to 2580 kg m-3. Observations of the 13 surge-producing blasts that preceded the climactic plinian event include radar-defined estimates of column heights and seismically defined eruptive and intra-eruptive durations. A comparison of the characteristics of erupted material, including microlite textures, chemical compositions, and H2O contents, with eruptive parameters suggests that devolatilization-induced crystallization of the magma occurred to a varying extent prior to at least nine of the explosive events. Although volatile loss progressed to the same approximate level in all of the clasts analyzed (weight percent H2O=1.26-1.73), microlite crystallization was extremely variable (0-22%). We infer that syn-eruptive volatile exsolution from magma in the conduit and intra-eruptive separation of the gas phase was facilitated by the development of permeability within magma residing in the conduit. Correlation of maximum microlite crystallinity with repose interval duration (28-262 min) suggests that crystallization occurred primarily intra-eruptively, in response to the reduction in dissolved H2O content that occurred during the preceding event. Detailed textural characterization, including determination of three-dimensional shapes and crystal size distributions (CSD), was conducted on a subset of clasts in order to determine rates of crystal nucleation and growth using repose interval as the time available for crystallization. Shape and size analysis suggests that crystallization proceeded in response to lessening degrees of feldspar supersaturation as repose interval durations increased. We thus propose that during repose intervals, a plug of highly viscous magma formed due to the collapse of vesicular magma that had exsolved volatiles during the previous explosive event. If plug thickness grew proportionally to the square root of time, and if magma pressurization increased during the eruptive sequence, the frequency of eruptive pulses may have been modulated by degassing of magma within the conduit. Dense clasts in surge deposits probably represent plug material entrained by each subsequent explosive event.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS1999

Mobility of pyroclastic flows and surges at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

The Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat has produced avalanche-like pyroclastic flows formed by collapse of the unstable lava dome or explosive activity. Pyroclastic flows associated with dome collapse generate overlying dilute surges which detach from and travel beyond their parent flows. The largest surges partially transform by rapid sedimentation into dense secondary pyroclastic flows that pose significant hazards to distal areas. Different kinds of pyroclastic density currents display contrasting mobilities indicated by ratios of total height of fall H , run-out distance L , area inundated A and volume transported V . Dome-collapse flow mobilities (characterised by either L/H or A/V 2/3 ) resemble those of terrestrial and extraterrestrial cold-rockfalls (Dade and Huppert, 1998). In contrast, fountain-fed pumice flows and fine-grained, secondary pyroclastic flows travel slower but, for comparable initial volumes and heights, can inundate greater areas.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational instability of the 1996-97 lava dome of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9 ?? 106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained dome collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9??106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated dome pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

Volcano hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, revised 1998

Mount Rainier—at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) the highest peak in the Cascade Range—is a dormant volcano whose load of glacier ice exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. The volcano’s past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history of Mount Rainier encompasses the period since about A.D. 1820, during which time one or two small eruptions, several small debris avalanches, and many small lahars (debris flows originating on a volcano) have occurred. This time interval is far too brief to serve as a basis for estimating the future behavior of a volcano that is several hundreds of thousands of years old. Fortunately, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of past events, and show which areas were affected by them. At Mount Rainier, as at other Cascade volcanoes, deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits reveal that we should anticipate potential hazards from some phenomena that only occur during eruptions and from others that may occur without eruptive activity. Tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and pyroclastic surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows occur only during eruptions. Debris avalanches, lahars, and floods commonly accompany eruptions, but can also occur during dormant periods. This report (1) explains the various types of hazardous geologic phenomena that could occur at Mount Rainier, (2) shows areas that are most likely to be affected by the different phenomena, (3) estimates the likelihood that the areas will be affected, and (4) recommends actions that can be taken to protect lives and property. It builds upon and revises a similar document prepared by D.R. Crandell in 1973. Our revision was motivated by the availability of new information about Mount Rainier’s geologic history, by advances in the field of volcanology, and by the need to assess hazards in a more quantitative manner than in Crandell’s pioneering report.

Washington↗

USGS1995

Volcano hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington

Mount Rainier—at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) the highest peak in the Cascade Range—is a dormant volcano whose load of glacier ice exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. The volcano’s past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history of Mount Rainier encompasses the period since about A.D. 1820, during which time one or two small eruptions, many small debris flows, and several small debris avalanches have occurred. This time interval is far too brief to serve as a basis for estimating the future behavior of a volcano that is several hundreds of thousands of years old. Fortunately, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of past events, and show which areas were affected by them. At Mount Rainier, as at other Cascade volcanoes, deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits reveal that we should anticipate potential hazards from some phenomena that only occur during eruptions and from others that may occur without eruptive activity. Tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and pyroclastic surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows occur only during eruptions. Debris avalanches, debris flows, and floods commonly accompany eruptions, but can also occur during dormant periods. This report (1) explains the various types of hazardous geologic phenomena that could occur at Mount Rainier, (2) shows areas that are most likely to be affected by the different phenomena, (3) estimates the likelihood that the areas will be affected, and (4) recommends actions that can be taken to protect lives and property. It builds upon and revises a similar document prepared by D.R. Crandell in 1973. Our revision was motivated by the availability of new information about Mount Rainier’s geologic history, by advances in the field of volcanology, and by the need to assess hazards in a more quantitative manner than in Crandell’s pioneering report.

Washington↗

USGS1994

An experiment to detect and locate lightning associated with eruptions of Redoubt Volcano

A commercially-available lightning-detection system was temporarily deployed near Cook Inlet, Alaska in an attempt to remotely monitor volcanogenic lightning associated with eruptions of Redoubt Volcano. The system became operational on February 14, 1990; lightning was detected in 11 and located in 9 of the 13 subsequent eruptions. The lightning was generated by ash clouds rising from pyroclastic density currents produced by collapse of a lava dome emplaced near Redoubt's summit. Lightning discharge (flash) location was controlled by topography, which channeled the density currents, and by wind direction. In individual eruptions, early flashes tended to have a negative polarity (negative charge is lowered to ground) while late flashes tended to have a positive polarity (positive charge is lowered to ground), perhaps because the charge-separation process caused coarse, rapid-settling particles to be negatively charged and fine, slow-settling particles to be positively charged. Results indicate that lightning detection and location is a useful adjunct to seismic volcano monitoring, particularly when poor weather or darkness prevents visual observation. The simultaneity of seismicity and lightning near a volcano provides the virtual certainty that an ash cloud is present. This information is crucial for aircraft safety and to warn threatened communities of impending tephra falls. The Alaska Volcano Observatory has now deployed a permanent lightning-detection network around Cook Inlet.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS1993

Bimodal Density Distribution of Cryptodome Dacite from the 1980 Eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

The explosion of a cryptodome at Mount St. Helens in 1980 produced two juvenile rock types that are derived from the same source magma. Their differences-color, texture and density-are due only to vesicularity differences. The vesicular gray dacite comprises bout 72% of the juvenile material; the black dacite comprises the other 28%. The density of juvenile dacite is bimodally distributed, with peaks at 1.6 g cm-3 (gray dacite) and 2.3 g cm-3 (black dacite). Water contents, deuterium abundances, and the relationship of petrographic structures to vapor-phase crystals indicate both rock types underwent pre-explosion subsurface vesiculation and degassing. The gray dacite underwent a second vesiculation event, probably during the 18 May explosion. In the subsurface, gases probably escaped through interconnected vesicles into the permeable volcanic edifice. We suggest that nonuniform degassing of an initially homogeneous magma produced volatile gradients in the cryptodome and that these gradients were responsible for the density bimodality. That is, water contents less than about 0.2-0.4 wt% produced vesicle growth rates that were slow in comparison to the pyroclast cooling rates; greater water contents produced vesicle growth rates that were fast in comparison to cooling rates. In this scheme, the dacite densities are bimodally distributed simply because, following decompression on 18 May 1980, one clast population vesiculated while the other did not. For clasts that did vesiculate, vesicle growth continued until it was arrested by fragmentation. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS1992

Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions: magmatic models, chemical cycles, and a revised hazards assessment

Available geophysical and geologic data provide a simplified model of the current magmatic plumbing system of Mount St. Helens (MSH). This model and new geochemical data are the basis for the revised hazards assessment presented here. The assessment is weighted by the style of eruptions and the chemistry of magmas erupted during the past 500 years, the interval for which the most detailed stratigraphic and geochemical data are available. This interval includes the Kalama (A. D. 1480-1770s?), Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800-1857), and current eruptive periods. In each of these periods, silica content decreased, then increased. The Kalama is a large amplitude chemical cycle (SiO2: 57%-67%), produced by mixing of arc dacite, which is depleted in high field-strength and incompatible elements, with enriched (OIB-like) basalt. The Goat Rocks and current cycles are of small amplitude (SiO2: 61%-64% and 62%-65%) and are related to the fluid dynamics of magma withdrawal from a zoned reservoir. The cyclic behavior is used to forecast future activity. The 1980-1986 chemical cycle, and consequently the current eruptive period, appears to be virtually complete. This inference is supported by the progressively decreasing volumes and volatile contents of magma erupted since 1980, both changes that suggest a decreasing potential for a major explosive eruption in the near future. However, recent changes in seismicity and a series of small gas-release explosions (beginning in late 1989 and accompanied by eruption of a minor fraction of relatively low-silica tephra on 6 January and 5 November 1990) suggest that the current eruptive period may continue to produce small explosions and that a small amount of magma may still be present within the conduit. The gas-release explosions occur without warning and pose a continuing hazard, especially in the crater area. An eruption as large or larger than that of 18 May 1980 (???0.5 km3 dense-rock equivalent) probably will occur only if magma rises from an inferred deep (???7 km), relative large (5-7 km3) reservoir. A conservative approach to hazard assessment is to assume that this deep magma is rich in volatiles and capable of erupting explosively to produce voluminous fall deposits and pyroclastic flows. Warning of such an eruption is expectable, however, because magma ascent would probably be accompanied by shallow seismicity that could be detected by the existing seismic-monitoring system. A future large-volume eruption (???0.1 km3) is virtually certain; the eruptive history of the past 500 years indicates the probability of a large explosive eruption is at least 1% annually. Intervals between large eruptions at Mount St. Helens have varied widely; consequently, we cannot confidently forecast whether the next large eruption will be years decades, or farther in the future. However, we can forecast the types of hazards, and the areas that will be most affected by future large-volume eruptions, as well as hazards associated with the approaching end of the current eruptive period. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS1992

A basalt trigger for the 1991 eruptions of Pinatubo volcano?

The eruptive products of calc-alkaline volcanos often show evidence for the mixing of basaltic and acid magmas before eruption (see, for example, refs 1, 2). These observations have led to the suggestion3 that the injection of basaltic magma into the base of a magma chamber (or the catastrophic overturn of a stably stratified chamber containing basaltic magma at its base) might trigger an eruption. Here we report evidence for the mixing of basaltic and dacitic magmas shortly before the paroxysmal eruptions of Pinatubo volcano on 15 June 1991. Andesitic scoriae erupted on 12 June contain minerals and glass with disequilibrium compositions, and are considerably more mafic than the dacitic pumices erupted on 15 June. Differences in crystal abundance and glass composition among the pumices may arise from pre-heating of the dacite magma by the underlying basaltic liquid before mixing. Degassing of this basaltic magma may also have contributed to the climatologically important sulphur dioxide emissions that accompanied the Pinatubo eruptions.

Pinatubo volcano↗