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Paul Segall

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Segall.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2023

Ring fault creep drives volcano-tectonic seismicity during caldera collapse of Kīlauea in 2018

Basaltic caldera collapses are episodic, producing very-long-period (VLP) earthquakes up to M w 5.4, with prolific inter-collapse (between collapses) volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity. During the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea Volcano, VT seismicity ceased following each collapse, and then accelerated to a quasi-steady rate prior to the next collapse, marking a temporal pattern distinct from typical foreshock/aftershock sequences. There is currently no consensus on the mechanism(s) that generates the VT seismicity. Here we demonstrate that inter-collapse ring fault creep, induced by chamber depressurization, was the main driver of VT seismicity at Kīlauea in 2018. This is evidenced by: 1) the correlation between cumulative number of VT events and GNSS-derived ring fault creep; 2) agreement between repeating earthquake and GNSS derived creep rates; and 3) consistency between the time dependence of mechanically modeled, creep-driven seismicity and observations. We further show that, ring fault creep can be explained by velocity strengthening friction alone or in conjunction with viscous shear zone rheology. The simultaneous occurrence of creep and seismicity highlights the spatially heterogeneous velocity weakening/strengthening friction on the ring fault. If the VT seismicity-creep correlation can be replicated at other basaltic volcanoes, it would demonstrate that VT seismicity can be used as a proxy for ring fault creep in the absence of GNSS measurements on subsiding caldera block(s).

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?

In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ~1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11 − 12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of GPS data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40 to 88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2021

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance d c "> d c dc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by M W "> M W MW 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains d c "> d c dc to be ≤ 10 "> ≤ 10 ≤10 mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick–slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Caldera collapse geometry revealed by near‐field GPS displacements at Kilauea Volcano in 2018

We employ near‐field GPS data to determine the subsurface geometry of a collapsing caldera during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. Collapse occurred in 62 discrete events, with “inflationary” deformation external to the collapse, similar to previous basaltic collapses. We take advantage of GPS data from the collapsing block and independent constraints on the magma chamber geometry from inversion of deflation prior to collapse onset. This provides an unparalleled opportunity to constrain the collapse geometry. Employing an axisymmetric finite element model, the co‐collapse displacements are best explained by piston‐like subsidence along a high angle ( ∼ 85°) normal ring fault that may steepen to vertical with depth. Reservoir magma has compressibility of 2→15 × 10 −10 Pa −1 , indicating bubble volume fractions from 1% to 7% (lower if fault steepens with depth). Magma pressure increases during collapses are 1 to 3 MPa, depending on compressibility. Depressurization of a triaxial point source in a homogeneous half‐space fits the data well but provides a biased representation of the source depth and process.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS)

Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Here, we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to verify different computational methods in solving a mathematically well-defined, basic faulting problem. We consider a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic halfspace. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of results from 11 groups using different numerical methods show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic fault behavior. In BP1, we found that truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture, and that model agreement is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of fault behavior depends on how well physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2019

Mechanics of inflationary deformation during Caldera collapse: Evidence from the 2018 Kīlauea Eruption

During the 2018 Kilauea eruption the caldera ffloor dropped 500 meters in 62 nearly periodic events of up to 8 meters. Caldera collapse maintains pressure in the magma reservoir necessary to sustain high-rate eruptions. The 2018 collapses were accompanied by inflationary tilts and displacements, similar to observations at other basaltic calderas. Collapse is modeled in 2D by uniform slip dislocations intersecting a magma chamber. Collapses occurred rapidly, such that mass within the chamber was constant. For vertical faults surface deformation outside the collapse results only from chamber pressurization with displacements anti-parallel to pre-collapse deflation, similar to observations. For inward dipping faults the predicted ratio of horizontal to vertical displacements during collapse is greater than for the pre-collapse deflation, as observed. For outward dipping faults the horizontal displacements are inward, contrary to data. The average deformation trends during the eruption depend on fault dip and whether stress required to trigger collapses was constant or changed with time.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea volcano in 2018

Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earths most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Klauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcanos summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Constraining the magmatic system at Mount St. Helens (2004–2008) using Bayesian inversion with physics-based models including gas escape and crystallization

Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions track conduit processes as functions of depth and time. When used in inversions, these models permit integration of diverse geological and geophysical data sets to constrain important parameters of magmatic systems. We develop a 1-D steady state conduit model for effusive eruptions including equilibrium crystallization and gas transport through the conduit and compare with the quasi-steady dome growth phase of Mount St. Helens in 2005. Viscosity increase resulting from pressure-dependent crystallization leads to a natural transition from viscous flow to frictional sliding on the conduit margin. Erupted mass flux depends strongly on wall rock and magma permeabilities due to their impact on magma density. Including both lateral and vertical gas transport reveals competing effects that produce nonmonotonic behavior in the mass flux when increasing magma permeability. Using this physics-based model in a Bayesian inversion, we link data sets from Mount St. Helens such as extrusion flux and earthquake depths with petrological data to estimate unknown model parameters, including magma chamber pressure and water content, magma permeability constants, conduit radius, and friction along the conduit walls. Even with this relatively simple model and limited data, we obtain improved constraints on important model parameters. We find that the magma chamber had low (<5wt%) total volatiles and that the magma permeability scale is well constrained at ~10-11.4 m2 to reproduce observed dome rock porosities. Compared with previous results, higher magma overpressure and lower wall friction are required to compensate for increased viscous resistance while keeping extrusion rate at the observed value.

Washington↗
USGS2014

The 2010 slow slip event and secular motion at Kilauea, Hawai`i inferred from TerraSAR-X InSAR data

We present here an Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm to extract both transient and secular ground deformations on the order of millimeters in the presence of tropospheric noise on the order of centimeters, when the transient is of short duration and known time, and the background deformation is smooth in time. We applied this algorithm to study the 2010 slow slip event as well as the secular motion of Kīlauea's south flank using 49 TerraSAR-X images. We also estimate the tropospheric delay variation relative to a given reference pixel using an InSAR SBAS approach. We compare the InSAR SBAS solution for both ground deformation and tropospheric delays with existing GPS measurements and confirm that the ground deformation signal andtropospheric noise in InSAR data are successfully separated. We observe that the coastal region on the south side of the Hilina Pali moves at a higher background rate than the region north side of the Pali. We also conclude that the 2010 SSE displacement is mainly horizontal and the maximum magnitude of the 2010 SSE vertical component is less than 5 mm.

Hawaii↗
USGS2014

Volcanology: Look up for magma insights

Volcanic plumes can be hazardous to aircraft. A correlation between plume height and ground deformation during an eruption of Gr&iacute;msv&ouml;tn Volcano, Iceland, allows us to peer into the properties of the magma chamber and may improve eruption forecasts.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2013

Bayesian inversion of data from effusive volcanic eruptions using physics-based models: Application to Mount St. Helens 2004--2008

Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions can directly link magmatic processes with diverse, time-varying geophysical observations, and when used in an inverse procedure make it possible to bring all available information to bear on estimating properties of the volcanic system. We develop a technique for inverting geodetic, extrusive flux, and other types of data using a physics-based model of an effusive silicic volcanic eruption to estimate the geometry, pressure, depth, and volatile content of a magma chamber, and properties of the conduit linking the chamber to the surface. A Bayesian inverse formulation makes it possible to easily incorporate independent information into the inversion, such as petrologic estimates of melt water content, and yields probabilistic estimates for model parameters and other properties of the volcano. Probability distributions are sampled using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We apply the technique using GPS and extrusion data from the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens. In contrast to more traditional inversions such as those involving geodetic data alone in combination with kinematic forward models, this technique is able to provide constraint on properties of the magma, including its volatile content, and on the absolute volume and pressure of the magma chamber. Results suggest a large chamber of >40 km 3 with a centroid depth of 11–18 km and a dissolved water content at the top of the chamber of 2.6–4.9 wt%.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Interdisciplinary discussion of volcanic processes beneath the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Craters Area

Volcanism in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Craters (LVCMC) volcanic field in eastern California over the past 4 Ma is dominated by the 0.76 Ma caldera-forming eruption of 600 km 3 of rhyolite to form the Bishop Tuff. Over the last 150 k.y., volcanism has concentrated along the Mono-Inyo chain, which extends 45 km north from Mammoth Mountain to Mono Lake (Figure 1, below). Recent eruptions along this chain have occurred from multiple vents 650±50 yr B.P. and from a vent in the middle of Mono Lake ∼300 yr B.P. An earthquake swarm in May 1980, including four M6 earthquakes accompanied by uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera, called attention to the restless nature of Long Valley caldera. Subsequent activity has included recurring swarms of earthquakes (M≤5.8), episodic uplift of the resurgent dome, diffuse outgassing of magmatic CO 2 , and mid-crustal (10- to 25- km deep), long period (LP) volcanic earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2011

Slow slip event at Kilauea Volcano

Early in the morning of 1 February 2010 (UTC; early afternoon 31 January 2010 local time), continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt instruments detected a slow slip event (SSE) on the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. The SSE lasted at least 36 hours and resulted in a maximum of about 3 centimeters of seaward displacement. About 10 hours after the start of the slip, a flurry of small earthquakes began (Figure 1) in an area of the south flank recognized as having been seismically active during past SSEs [Wolfe et al., 2007], suggesting that the February earthquakes were triggered by stress associated with slip [Segall et al., 2006].

Hawai'i↗
USGS2006

Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

Slow-slip events, or &lsquo;silent earthquakes&rsquo;, have recently been discovered in a number of subduction zones including the Nankai trough 1, 2, 3 in Japan, Cascadia 4, 5 , and Guerrero 6 in Mexico, but the depths of these events have been difficult to determine from surface deformation measurements. Although it is assumed that these silent earthquakes are located along the plate megathrust, this has not been proved. Slow slip in some subduction zones is associated with non-volcanic tremor 7, 8 , but tremor is difficult to locate and may be distributed over a broad depth range 9 . Except for some events on the San Andreas fault 10 , slow-slip events have not yet been associated with high-frequency earthquakes, which are easily located. Here we report on swarms of high-frequency earthquakes that accompany otherwise silent slips on K ī lauea volcano, Hawaii. For the most energetic event, in January 2005, the slow slip began before the increase in seismicity. The temporal evolution of earthquakes is well explained by increased stressing caused by slow slip, implying that the earthquakes are triggered. The earthquakes, located at depths of 7&ndash;8 &thinsp; km, constrain the slow slip to be at comparable depths, because they must fall in zones of positive Coulomb stress change. Triggered earthquakes accompanying slow-slip events elsewhere might go undetected if background seismicity rates are low. Detection of such events would help constrain the depth of slow slip, and could lead to a method for quantifying the increased hazard during slow-slip events, because triggered events have the potential to grow into destructive earthquakes.

Nature↗
USGS2006

Corrigendum: Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

There was a plotting error in Fig. 1 that inadvertently displays earthquakes for the incorrect time interval. The location of earthquakes during the two-day-long slow-slip event of January 2005 are shown here in the corrected Fig. 1 . Because the incorrect locations were also used in the Coulomb stress-change (CSC) calculation, the error could potentially have biased our interpretation of the depth of the slow-slip event, although in fact it did not. Because nearly all of the earthquakes, both background and triggered, are landward of the slow-slip event and at similar depths (6.5–8.5 km), the impact on the CSC calculations is negligible ( Fig. 2 ; compare with Fig. 4 in original paper). The error does not alter our conclusion that the triggered events during the January 2005 slow-slip event were located on a subhorizontal plane at a depth of 7.5 1 km. This is therefore the most likely depth of the slow-slip events. We thank Cecily J. Wolfe for pointing out the error in the original Fig. 1 .

Hawai'i↗
USGS1997

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Aftershocks and postseismic effects

While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

California↗