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Paul K. Link

Publications and source records attributed to Paul K. Link.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Rapid expansion of genotype D1.1 A(H5N1) influenza viruses in wild birds across North America during the 2024 migratory season

In late 2021, high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses entered North America and reassorted rapidly with local avian influenza viruses. In September 2024, we detected a new reassortant later classified as genotype D1.1. Using active and passive avian influenza surveillance across Canada and the USA, we tracked the emergence and rapid spread of D1.1 viruses in wild birds during the 2024 fall migration. Phylodynamic analysis showed that D1.1 viruses formed a monophyletic group and displaced earlier A(H5) genotypes across several flyways. Their expansion coincided with detections in other hosts, including 17 human cases, 4 of which were severe or fatal. None of the mammalian-adaptive markers detected in human cases were found in wild bird viruses, and candidate vaccine viruses retained antigenic cross-reactivity with D1.1 strains.

Nature medicine↗
USGS2025

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗
USGS2024

Sampling for disease surveillance: Assessing effects on blue-winged teal survival and recovery

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild animals highlight the need for disease surveillance in wild birds to improve our understanding of their role as reservoirs and dispersers, and potential threats to domestic poultry and wild bird populations. Surveillance for avian influenza varies in its approach, objectives, and coordination with other monitoring efforts. For waterfowl, a common host to avian influenza viruses, banding represents a concerted effort of capturing and marking thousands of individuals annually to estimate survival and harvest rates, but users of these data have generally taken a conservative approach to remove any banded birds from analyses that had a sample taken for disease surveillance during capture. We tested for differences in survival and encounter probabilities of blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ) marked ( n = 21,702 teal) and sampled for disease surveillance ( n = 4,216) during the nonbreeding season in Louisiana, USA, from 2016 to 2023. Although we found no consistent effect of collecting biological samples on survival probability, including an additional test showing no detectable effects of sampling for disease surveillance with oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs versus sampling with swabs and a syringe-drawn blood sample, wide 95% credible intervals on the posterior survival estimates (mean 0.36 difference between upper and lower values across all year-sex-sampling groups; 0.44 for sampling type groups) indicated low statistical power to detect an effect. Seber recovery probability during the first interval following sampling was lower among birds sampled using swabs only, but we assume this stems from low sample sizes rather than an effect of collecting biological samples. Because recovery probabilities can vary as a function of individual covariates, we also examined direct recovery probabilities and observed no meaningful effect of disease surveillance sampling type but strong effects of capture date, suggesting the effect on Seber recovery probability may have been due to heterogeneity in exposure to natural and harvest mortality risks. Although we suggest that aligning disease surveillance sample collection efforts with landscape-scale waterfowl banding efforts may have little effect on observed demographic rates, additional studies with larger sample sizes are likely needed to provide the statistical power necessary to formally conclude no effect of biological sampling on survival probabilities.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Major reorganization of the Snake River modulated by passage of the Yellowstone Hotspot

The details and mechanisms for Neogene river reorganization in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains have been debated for over a century with key implications for how tectonic and volcanic systems modulate topographic development. To evaluate paleo-drainage networks, we produced an expansive data set and provenance analysis of detrital zircon U-Pb ages from Miocene to Pleistocene fluvial strata along proposed proto-Snake and Columbia River pathways. Statistical comparisons of Miocene-Pliocene detrital zircon spectra do not support previously hypothesized drainage routes of the Snake River. We use detrital zircon unmixing models to test prior Snake River routes against a newly hypothesized route, in which the Snake River circumnavigated the northern Rocky Mountains and entered the Columbia Basin from the northeast prior to incision of Hells Canyon. Our proposed ancestral Snake River route best matches detrital zircon age spectra throughout the region. Furthermore, this northerly Snake River route satisfies and provides context for shifts in the sedimentology and fish faunal assemblages of the western Snake River Plain and Columbia Basin through Miocene−Pliocene time. We posit that eastward migration of the Yellowstone Hotspot and its effect on thermally induced buoyancy and topographic uplift, coupled with volcanic densification of the eastern Snake River Plain lithosphere, are the primary mechanisms for drainage reorganization and that the eastern and western Snake River Plain were isolated from one another until the early Pliocene. Following this basin integration, the substantial increase in drainage area to the western Snake River Plain likely overtopped a bedrock threshold that previously contained Lake Idaho, which led to incision of Hells Canyon and establishment of the modern Snake and Columbia River drainage network.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Oregon,↗
USGS2005

Evolution of a late Cenozoic supradetachment basin above a flat-on-flat detachment with a folded lateral ramp, SE Idaho

Uplift and exposure of the Bannock detachment system and the synextensional basin fill deposits of the Salt Lake Formation provide a unique exposure of the three-dimensional geometries of a low-angle normal fault system and the stratal architecture of the overlying supradetachment basin. Within this system, structural and stratigraphic analyses, outcrop patterns, tephra geochronology, and geological cross sections document several important relationships: (1) the Bannock detachment system developed above the Sevierage Cache-Pocatello culmination and resembles the Sevier Desert detachment in its geometry, structural setting, and kinematic evolution; (2) the Bannock detachment system initiated and slipped at low angles; (3) flat-on-flat, ramp-flat, and lateral ramp geometries, as well as excision, can significantly affect the hanging wall deformation style due to the shallow depth (~2–4 km) of the Bannock detachment fault during late stages of slip; (4) late Miocene–Pliocene tuffaceous synrift deposits of the Salt Lake Formation record deposition in a supradetachment basin, display an unroofing sequence, and a three-stage evolution that includes pre-translation, translation, and breakup phases. Recycled pre-translation and translation phase deposits are diagnostic of this evolution; and (5) beginning in mid- to late Pliocene time, high-angle, north-striking Basin and Range faults disrupted and dismembered the Bannock detachment system.

Idaho↗
USGS1983

Evidence for two pulses of glaciation during the late Proterozoic in northern Utah and southeastern Idaho

A record of glaciation during late Proterozoic time is preserved in a number of localities extending from the Sheeprock Mountains, Utah, to Pocatello, Idaho, and from the Park City area 40 km east of Salt Lake City to the Deep Creek Range along the Utah-Nevada line. Over much of this area, the glacial deposits and associated rocks thicken westward and form the basal part of a miogeoclinal wedge that accumulated near the late Proterozoic and early Paleozoic continental margin. In the east, such deposits are thin and rest on Archean basement or rocks of Proterozoic Y age; in the west, they are part of thicker sequences in which deposition apparently continued without significant interruption from late Proterozoic into Cambrian time. In many places, the original continuity between the western and eastern parts of the depositional wedge has been obscured by thrusting of Cretaceous and early Tertiary age that carried the thick basinal sequences eastward over those deposited on the continental platform. Recent mapping of Fremont Island in Great Salt Lake, the Wasatch Range between Ogden and Brigham City, and the Sheeprock Mountains shows that glacial episodes represented either by diamictite or by dropstones enclosed in finegrained laminated beds are separated by as much as 1,000 m of non-glacial deposits, including black slate, alternating graywacke and siltstone, quartzite, and conglomerate. Using reasonable sedimentation rates for such deposits and by comparison with modern analogues, we infer that two episodes of glaciation, each probably consisting of multiple advances and retreats, were separated by a non-glacial interval of a few hundred thousand to a few million years' duration. Correlation of the allochthonous, miogeoclinal glacial deposits with the single glacial unit present in autochthonous and parautochthonous platform sites is uncertain, but our interpretation of sedimentary facies and paleogeography suggests that only the younger of the two episodes recorded in the allochthon is represented by the diamictites of the autochthon.

Idaho, Utah↗