Geology topics

Patrick J. Bartlein

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick J. Bartlein.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2001

Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving significant changes in global climate. To project potential vegetation response to future climate change, this study uses response surfaces to describe the relationship between bioclimatic variables and the distribution of tree and shrub taxa in western North America. The response surfaces illustrate the probability of the occurrence of a taxon at particular points in climate space. Climate space was defined using three bioclimatic variables: mean temperature of the coldest month, growing degree days, and a moisture index. Species distributions were simulated under present climate using observed data (1951–80, 30-year mean) and under future climate (2090–99, 10-year mean) using scenarios generated by three general circulation models—HADCM2, CGCM1, and CSIRO. The scenarios assume a 1% per year compound increase in greenhouse gases and changes in sulfate (SO 4 ) aerosols based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario. The results indicate that under future climate conditions, potential range changes could be large for many tree and shrub taxa. Shifts in the potential ranges of species are simulated to occur not only northward but in all directions, including southward of the existing ranges of certain species. The simulated potential distributions of some species become increasingly fragmented under the future climate scenarios, while the simulated potential distributions of other species expand. The magnitudes of the simulated range changes imply significant impacts to ecosystems and shifts in patterns of species diversity in western North America.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2000

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America; additional conifers, hardwoods, and monocots

This volume explores the continental-scale relations between climate and the geographic ranges of woody plant species in North America. A 25-km equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America was constructed from instrumental weather records. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence of each species was determined for each cell on the 25-km grid, thus providing a basis for comparing climatic data and species' distribution.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1999

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America

This atlas explores the continental-scale relations between the geographic ranges of woody plant species and climate in North America. A 25-km equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters was constructed from instrumental weather records. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence of each species was determined for each cell on the 25-km grid, thus providing a basis for comparing climatic data and species distributions. The relations between climate and plant distributions are explored in graphical and tabular form. The results of this effort are primarily intended for use in biogeographic, paleoclimatic, and global-change research.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1998

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Circular↗

USGS1997

Influence of basin-scale physical variables on life history characteristics of cutthroat trout in Yellowstone Lake

Individual spawning populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki bouvieri differ in life history characteristics associated with broad spatial and temporal environmental patterns, but relationships between specific life history characteristics of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and physical aspects of the environment are poorly understood. We examined basin-scale physical characteristics of tributary drainages and subbasins of Yellowstone Lake in relation to timing (peak and duration) of lacustrine–adfluvial Yellowstone cutthroat trout spawning migrations and mean length of cutthroat trout spawners in 27 tributaries to the lake. Stream drainages varied along gradients that can be described by mean aspect, mean elevation, and drainage and stream size. Approximately two-thirds of the variation in the timing of the peak of the annual cutthroat trout spawning migrations and average length of spawners was explained by third-order polynomial regressions with mean aspect and basin area as predictor variables. Because most cutthroat trout ascend tributaries soon after peak runoff, it appears that the influence of basin-scale physical variables on the date of the migration peak is manifested by the pattern of stream discharge. Spawner length does not seem to be a direct function of stream size in the Yellowstone Lake watershed, and aspect of the tributary basin seems to have a greater influence on the body length of cutthroat trout spawners than does stream size. Mechanisms that explain how the interaction of basin-scale physical variables influence spawner length were not investigated directly; however, we found evidence of distinct aggregations of cutthroat trout that are related to physical and limnological characteristics of the lake subbasins, and there is some indication that lake residence may be related to tributary location.

Wyoming↗