Geology topics

P. Camill

Publications and source records attributed to P. Camill.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2016

Effects of permafrost aggradation on peat properties as determined from a pan-Arctic synthesis of plant macrofossils

Permafrost dynamics play an important role in high-latitude peatland carbon balance and are key to understanding the future response of soil carbon stocks. Permafrost aggradation can control the magnitude of the carbon feedback in peatlands through effects on peat properties. We compiled peatland plant macrofossil records for the northern permafrost zone (515 cores from 280 sites) and classified samples by vegetation type and environmental class (fen, bog, tundra and boreal permafrost, and thawed permafrost). We examined differences in peat properties (bulk density, carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and organic matter content, and C/N ratio) and C accumulation rates among vegetation types and environmental classes. Consequences of permafrost aggradation differed between boreal and tundra biomes, including differences in vegetation composition, C/N ratios, and N content. The vegetation composition of tundra permafrost peatlands was similar to permafrost-free fens, while boreal permafrost peatlands more closely resembled permafrost-free bogs. Nitrogen content in boreal permafrost and thawed permafrost peatlands was significantly lower than in permafrost-free bogs despite similar vegetation types (0.9% versus 1.5% N). Median long-term C accumulation rates were higher in fens (23 g C m −2   yr −1 ) than in permafrost-free bogs (18 g C m −2  yr −1 ) and were lowest in boreal permafrost peatlands (14 g C m −2  yr −1 ). The plant macrofossil record demonstrated transitions from fens to bogs to permafrost peatlands, bogs to fens, permafrost aggradation within fens, and permafrost thaw and reaggradation. Using data synthesis, we have identified predominant peatland successional pathways, changes in vegetation type, peat properties, and C accumulation rates associated with permafrost aggradation.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2013

A new data set for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region

High-latitude terrestrial ecosystems are key components in the global carbon cycle. The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD) was developed to quantify stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the northern circumpolar permafrost region (a total area of 18.7 × 10 6 km 2 ). The NCSCD is a geographical information system (GIS) data set that has been constructed using harmonized regional soil classification maps together with pedon data from the northern permafrost region. Previously, the NCSCD has been used to calculate SOC storage to the reference depths 0–30 cm and 0–100 cm (based on 1778 pedons). It has been shown that soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region also contain significant quantities of SOC in the 100–300 cm depth range, but there has been no circumpolar compilation of pedon data to quantify this deeper SOC pool and there are no spatially distributed estimates of SOC storage below 100 cm depth in this region. Here we describe the synthesis of an updated pedon data set for SOC storage (kg C m -2 ) in deep soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost regions, with separate data sets for the 100–200 cm (524 pedons) and 200–300 cm (356 pedons) depth ranges. These pedons have been grouped into the North American and Eurasian sectors and the mean SOC storage for different soil taxa (subdivided into Gelisols including the sub-orders Histels, Turbels, Orthels, permafrost-free Histosols, and permafrost-free mineral soil orders) has been added to the updated NCSCDv2. The updated version of the data set is freely available online in different file formats and spatial resolutions that enable spatially explicit applications in GIS mapping and terrestrial ecosystem models. While this newly compiled data set adds to our knowledge of SOC in the 100–300 cm depth range, it also reveals that large uncertainties remain. Identified data gaps include spatial coverage of deep (> 100 cm) pedons in many regions as well as the spatial extent of areas with thin soils overlying bedrock and the quantity and distribution of massive ground ice. An open access data-portal for the pedon data set and the GIS-data sets is available online at http://bolin.su.se/data/ncscd/ .

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS2013

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2012

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative probability functions (PDFs) for active layer depths under current and future climates. The difference in PDFs over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N, Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗