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Geology topics

Noreen E. Walsh

Publications and source records attributed to Noreen E. Walsh.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Experimental manipulations of snow-depth: Effects on nutrient content of caribou forage

We investigated the potential effects of global climate change on arctic tundra vegetation used as caribou forage. A total of 96 experimental plots was established at six sites on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, in 1993 and 1994. We erected snow-fences to increase the amount of snow deposition, and therefore delay the date of the snowmelt on 48 plots (referred to as increased snow/late melting plots). We used black mesh netting on the surface of the snow to increase the rate of melting on 24 plots; the remaining 24 plots served as controls. In July 1994, we collected green leaves from Eriophorum vaginatum, Salix planifolia, and Betula nana and analysed these samples for total carbon and total nitrogen content. Ratios of carbon to nitrogen differed among treatments for all three species. Generally, C:N ratios for B. nana and E. vaginatum on increased snow/late melting plots were lower than on control plots. C:N ratios for S. planifolia on increased snow/late melting plots did not differ from controls, but were lower than on plots which started to melt early. These results may be due to the timing of nitrogen translocation from leaf and stem tissue into storage organs, or due to an increase in available nitrogen input to the system. Further sampling is needed to adequately determine the mechanism responsible for increased nitrogen content of caribou forage in areas with increased amount of snow and delayed snowmelt. ?? 1997 Blackwell Science Ltd.

Global Change Biology

Evaluating growth of the Porcupine Caribou Herd using a stochastic model

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r̄ = 0.013; 1989-92, r̄ = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth.

Alaska