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Geology topics

Noel B. Pavlovic

Publications and source records attributed to Noel B. Pavlovic.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Quality and quantity of terrestrial landscape connectivity in the US Great Lakes Coastal Zone

Context The Great Lakes Coastal Zone (GLCZ), the world’s longest continuous freshwater coastline, consists of interspersed natural and developed landcover and is inhabited by millions of people. Anthropogenic change fragments the GLCZ, decreasing landscape connectivity. Objectives We evaluated functional landscape connectivity of the U.S. GLCZ, assessing regional connectivity, protected areas’ effects on connectivity, and identified pinchpoints where connectivity is most vulnerable. Methods We modeled landscape connectivity to describe corridors and redundant pathways for two scenarios: (1) continuous terrestrial habitat patches and (2) protected areas. We compared these two scenarios by total corridor area and quality at two spatial scales (coastal zone and ecoregion). We used random forest analyses to examine how ecological factors influenced the connectivity rank and pinchpoint values. A principal components analysis identified how land cover influenced connectivity among ecoregions. Results The GLCZ was 69% connected. Although 91% of the GLCZ’s high-quality habitat was within corridors, less than 50% of the corridor area was high-quality (low resistance to movement). While the northernmost region retained high-quality connectivity, connectivity loss and degradation increased with development further south. Corridors between protected areas provided less connectivity, of worse quality, in areas of development and agriculture. Lower connectivity was associated with higher impervious surface cover. Conclusions Protected area placement affected both the quantity and quality of connectivity. Improving and maintaining functional connectivity could be accomplished by strategically restoring and protecting habitats most vulnerable to connectivity loss, predominantly in urban and agricultural regions. Our connectivity improvement index is a useful tool to identify areas where connectivity may be improved.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗
USGS2025

The interface between rare plant management and genetics: Conserving Pitcher’s thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) in the Great Lakes region, USA

Background and Aims Tools showing best conservation practices are becoming critical for rare plant conservation as populations become isolated through habitat fragmentation and changing ecosystem processes. We illustrate the importance of reintroduction and assisted gene flow, using reintroduction of the USA federally threatened Pitcher’s thistle ( Cirsium pitcheri ), a monocarpic perennial endemic to the western Great Lakes sand dunes. We evaluate the success of experimental reintroductions of this species into its dynamic coastal environment and address fundamental issues for rare plant reintroduction, including questions of maintenance of genetic diversity, founder size, introduction methods and assisted gene flow effectiveness. Methods In 1994 we initiated experimental reintroductions at three new locations along a habitat successional gradient using 4200 seeds collected from 54 maternal lines. At each site, seed sources were distributed among replicate blocks that were split by sowing method (sowing vs broadcasting) to examine establishment success. We monitored population demography for 30 years, assessing genetic variation in 2009 and regionally from 1997 to 2014. Key Results Two of three populations persisted for 30 years from a single-seeding founder event. Reintroduction populations had greater expected heterozygosity than regional native populations. Despite persistence, moderate inbreeding coefficients showed that reintroduction populations have not achieved an effective size to reduce the likelihood of inbreeding depression. However, the mid-successional reintroduction had the lowest kinship of all populations sampled, indicating a healthy restoration. Seed sowing produced three times as many seedlings as broadcasting, but seed source did not affect germination success. Persistence has been facilitated by local migration to suitable habitat patches, an important metapopulation process. Conclusions Seeds can be an effective method for reintroducing monocarpic plants in high-quality habitats. However, low numbers of reproductive adults and moderate inbreeding illustrate the need for repeated additions of plants or seed to reduce inbreeding to improve rare plant genetic evolutionary potential.

Indiana↗
USGS2025

A model for regional-scale oak savanna management: The roles of fire, canopy, and soils for understory plant diversity

Predicting the outcomes of land management on biodiversity is difficult without a mechanistic understanding of how management approaches, ecosystem structure, environmental conditions, and biodiversity interact. Management effects may be direct or indirect, context- or scale-dependent, or obscured by local environmental conditions. Resolving these relationships at the regional scale may be difficult, given heterogeneity in local environmental conditions, yet understanding broad-scale patterns can elucidate context dependencies and improve restoration outcomes. We confronted these challenges within globally rare oak savannas in the midwestern United States, which have been altered by fire exclusion and resulting woody encroachment. By modeling direct and indirect pathways by which management influences diversity, we test a general framework for savanna restoration. Across 100 oak savannas spanning five US states, management by prescribed fire and mechanical thinning of woody vegetation affected groundlayer plant species richness through changes to ecosystem structure (canopy openness and litter depth), and these effects were both context- and scale-dependent. Frequent prescribed fires and canopy thinning promoted greater canopy openness, which in turn increased richness at small (1 m 2 ), but not larger (1000 m 2 ) scales. Frequent fire additionally increased richness at small and larger scales through effects independent of ecosystem structure. While management effects were large relative to the influence of local edaphic conditions, soil productivity had two largely offsetting effects on small-scale richness, increasing richness directly but decreasing richness indirectly by promoting closed canopy structure. These results suggest using a combination of fire and canopy thinning to reverse the effects of decades of fire exclusion. However, management effects were also context-dependent, emphasizing that management outcomes vary regionally. Here, 1-m 2 plant species richness increased with both fire frequency and canopy thinning under low, but not high, productivity soil conditions. By demonstrating how specific management practices influence savanna structure and biodiversity by manipulating ecological processes across broad geographic and edaphic gradients, our findings provide a framework for understanding management outcomes at short and medium intervals (e.g., within and between decades, respectively), in the form of a model that can be refined by testing additional hypotheses to better predict savanna restoration outcomes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Bacterial community structure across a sand dune chronosequence at the Indiana Dunes National Park

The microbial role in dune succession along the Great Lakes freshwater sand dunes remains poorly understood. A chronosequence study was conducted to understand the relationships among soil bacterial communities, soil chemistry, and prescribed burning at the Indiana Dunes National Park. Soil bacterial communities and chemistry, as well as groundlayer vegetation were sampled during 2015 and 2017 from seven successional stages from the beach (contemporary) to the 14,000-year-old oak forest. Bacterial communities from unburned and burned sites among stages were determined by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Soil pH and cations decreased from early (beach, foredune, secondary dune, and woodland transition) to late (oak savanna, woodland, and oak forest) successional stages, while organic matter and organic carbon concentrations increased in the late successional stages. Bacterial alpha diversity showed no significant differences among stages, but a significant interaction was found between stage and prescribed burning (H = 39.7, p < 0.001). Bacterial communities separated mainly along stage by all four beta diversity metrics used (Bray Curtis, Jaccard, and Weighted and Unweighted UniFrac), with the main difference observed along the primary axis (weighted UniFrac, 48 %). Bacterial phyla were differentially abundant in older soil stages compared to beach (ANCOM-BC, q < 0.05); likewise, differential abundances in genera were evident when burned and unburned sites were compared. A Mantel test indicated stronger congruency between the bacterial communities and soil chemistry than between bacterial communities and vegetation. Collectively, soil chemical and microbial parameters along with management practices contribute to dunal successional patterns in the Great Lakes.

Indiana↗
USGS2025

The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications . Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2023

Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species

The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long-term. Yet most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large ( n = 275) and broadly representative dataset of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. Using the random forest algorithm, we found that drivers of translocation outcomes varied across timeframes and metrics of success. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends while site attributes and species traits were more important for population persistence and longer-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, while declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Since most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2022

Bacteria common to rhizosphere communities of Asiatic bittersweet across a post-glacial landscape

Invasive plants such as Asiatic bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.) are a significant problem for land managers as they impact plant species composition, disrupt nutrient dynamics and structure of native ecosystems, and are difficult to eradicate. As a result of the increasing abundance of Asiatic bittersweet across the eastern U.S., we have been investigating underlying factors potentially contributing to the success of this plant. Recently, ecologists have been investigating the role of plant-soil-microbe interactions contributing to plant invasion. This work has led to question: are there certain microbes (e.g., bacteria, fungi) contributing to the success of some invasive plants? We hypothesize that despite differences in geologic age of soils where Asiatic bittersweet has established in the Indiana Dunes National Park there are sufficient common factors that led to common bacterial taxa in their rhizosphere. The objectives were to determine differences and commonalities in the soil chemistry, plant community and bacterial communities of Asiatic bittersweet plants. To achieve these objectives, bittersweet plants were collected at thirteen locations in the national park from soils ranging in geologic age from 150 to over 14,500 years. Surrounding soil chemistry, plant cover and the 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences of rhizosphere soil bacterial communities of these Asiatic bittersweet were compared. Asiatic bittersweet coverage of sampling sites ranged from 2 to 77% averaging 52 ± 2%. There were statistically significant differences ( p < 0.05) in alpha diversity (Shannon, Faith’s PD and Pielou’s evenness) and beta diversity (Bray Curtis, Jaccard, unweighted Unifrac, weighted Unifrac) among the samples when grouped by soil age or habitat. Despite these differences in the bacterial communities from different soil ages and habitats, some bacterial taxa (e.g., Bacillus, Streptomyces, Sphingomonas and Rhizobiales) previously found in other studies to be beneficial to plant growth were found in every rhizosphere community sampled. These microbes provide insight into a possible contributing factor to the success of this invasive plant at the Indiana Dunes National Park, and a strategy for future work to reduce the impact of Asiatic bittersweet establishment and offer some new strategies to manage this nuisance species.

Frontiers of Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Heterospecific pollination by an invasive congener threatens the native American bittersweet, Celastrus scandens

Invasive plants have the potential to interfere with native species’ reproductive success through a number of mechanisms, including heterospecific pollination and hybridization. This study investigated reproductive interactions between a native North American woody vine (American bittersweet, Celastrus scandens ) and an introduced congener (oriental bittersweet, C . orbiculatus ). The decline of C . scandens in the eastern portion of its range is coincident with the introduction and spread of C . orbiculatus , and the two species are known to hybridize. The relationship between proximity and floral production of conspecific and heterospecific males on fertilization and hybridization rates was measured at a field site in northwestern Indiana, USA where both species occur and reproduce. We found that the invasive vine had an extreme advantage in both male and female floral production, producing nearly 200 times more flowers per staminate plant and 65 times more flowers per pistillate plant than the native. Using nuclear microsatellite DNA markers we found that hybridization rates were asymmetric; 39% of the C . scandens seeds tested were hybrids, compared to only 1.6% of C . orbiculatus seeds. The asymmetric hybridization rates were likely not solely due to greater abundance of C . orbiculatus pollen because experimental hand crosses revealed that C . scandens had a higher rate (41%) of heterospecific fertilization than C . orbiculatus (2.4%). We previously reported that few hybrids were observed in the wild, and hybrids had greatly reduced fecundity. Thus, in our system, the threat posed by heterospecific pollen is not replacement by hybrids or introgression, but rather asymmetric reproductive interference. Reproductive interference extended to distances as great as 100 meters, thus, efforts to conserve the native species must reduce its exposure to C . orbiculatus over a relatively large spatial scale.

Indiana↗
USGS2020

Changes in conservation value from grasslands to savannas to forests: How a temperate canopy cover gradient affects butterfly community composition

Temperate savannas and grasslands are globally threatened. In the Midwest United States of America (USA), for example, oak savannas persist today at a small percentage of recent historic coverage. Therefore, restoration of habitats of low and intermediate canopy cover is a landscape conservation priority that often emphasizes returning tree density to a savanna-like target value. Understanding how animal species react to such changes in vegetation structure is important for assessing the value of these restoration plans. We examined how butterfly community attributes in northwest Indiana USA, including community composition, richness, and abundance responded to a grassland-to-forest gradient of canopy cover. Butterfly community composition under intermediate canopy cover differed significantly from community composition in the most open or closed-canopy habitats. Composition of the plant community in flower was a significant predictor of three assessed attributes of the butterfly community—composition, richness, and abundance. Phenology, expressed as day-of-the-year, was also a strong predictor of these butterfly community attributes. Few butterfly species were habitat specialists as adults although canopy cover was a more important predictor of adult community composition than of richness or abundance of butterflies. Therefore, adult butterfly community differences along the canopy cover gradient were less about butterfly communities filled with habitat specialists for different canopy-defined habitats and more about gradual changes in community composition along this gradient. Overall, butterfly community richness was predicted to peak at about 34% canopy cover, butterfly abundance at about 53% canopy cover, community conservation value at about 59% canopy cover, and a combination of desirable conservation attributes–high diversity, high abundance, and high conservation value–was predicted to reach a peak of co-occurrence at about 67% canopy cover suggesting that habitats of intermediate canopy cover might be particularly effective for butterfly conservation in this region.

Indiana↗
USGS2020

Visualizing the ecological importance of pre-Euro-American settlement fire across three Midwestern landscapes

Bearing-tree data were used to calculate an index, pyrophilic percentage, depicting the importance of fire before Euro-American settlement on three landscapes, two within the Prairie Peninsula and one outside the region. Based on functional traits, bearing trees were classified as either pyrophilic or pyrophobic, applied to Public Land Survey points, and the pyrophilic percentage was calculated for each point. Kriging was applied to this point database to create a continuous surface of pyrophilic percentages. Regression analysis was used to relate this surface to environmental factors. Regression models created separately for each study area explained 38 to 53% of the variation in pyrophilic percentage. A positive association between pyrophilic percentage and distance to water and summer potential evapotranspiration was consistent across all study sites. The consistently high values and spatial patterns of pyrophilic percentage revealed fire-dominated landscapes interspersed with patches of pyrophobic vegetation. The restriction of pyrophobic areas to the leeside (east) of waterbodies indicated these served as firebreaks in a fire-swept landscape. Lake Michigan must have had a profound effect on pre- Euro-American settlement fire environments, serving as a massive physical firebreak while casting a moist maritime climate eastward. In southern and southwestern Illinois, the Mississippi River and associated tributaries along with an increase in topographic complexity also served as firebreaks, with pyrophobic forests restricted to riparian zones which progressively graded to pyrophilic vegetation on surrounding uplands. Our analysis expands the use of Public Land Survey data by converting bearing trees into a meaningful fire ecology index. While much of the landscape included in our study area is now in agriculture or urbanized, pyrophilic percentage maps can help guide land managers in the application of fire for restoration, conservation, and forestry purposes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long‐term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short‐term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short‐term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time‐to‐event analysis on a database of unusually well‐monitored and long‐term (4–28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life‐history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time‐lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life‐history theory with short‐lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long‐lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long‐lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short‐lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life‐history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life‐history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long‐term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life‐histories take decades to unfold.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2017

Mislabeling of an invasive vine (Celastrus orbiculatus) as a native congener (C. scandens) in horticulture

The horticultural industry is an important source of invasive ornamental plant species, which is part of the motivation for an increased emphasis on using native alternatives. We were interested in the possibility that plants marketed in the midwestern United States as the native Celastrus scandens , or American bittersweet, were actually the difficult-to-distinguish invasive Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) or hybrids of the two species. We used nuclear microsatellite DNA loci to compare the genetic identities of 34 plants from 11 vendors with reference plants from wild populations of known species identity. We found that 18 samples (53%) were mislabeled, and 7 of the 11 vendors sold mislabeled plants. Mislabeled plants were more likely to be purchased through Internet or phone order shipments and were significantly less expensive than accurately labeled plants. Vendors marketed mislabeled plants under five different cultivar names, as well as unnamed strains. Additionally, the most common native cultivar, ‘Autumn Revolution,’ displays reproductive characteristics that diverge from the typical C. scandens , which could be of some concern. The lower price and abundance of mislabeled invasive plants introduces incentives for consumers to unknowingly contribute to the spread of C. orbiculatus . Revealing the potential sources of C. orbiculatus is critical for controlling further spread of the invasive vine and limiting its impact on C. scandens populations.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗
USGS2017

Competitive Interactions of Garlic Mustard ( Alliaria petiolata ) and Damesrocket ( Hesperis matronalis )

Competitive interactions between native plants and nonnative, invasive plant species have been extensively studied; however, within degraded landscapes, the effect of interspecific interactions among invasive plants is less explored. We investigated a competitive interaction between two sympatric, invasive mustard species that have similar life history strategies and growth forms: garlic mustard and damesrocket. Greenhouse experiments using a full range of reciprocal density ratios were conducted to investigate interspecific competition. Garlic mustard had a negative effect on the final biomass, number of leaves, and relative growth rate in height of damesrocket. Survival of damesrocket was not negatively affected by interspecific competition with garlic mustard; however, garlic mustard showed higher mortality because of intraspecific competition. These results indicated that although garlic mustard has been observed to be the dominant species in this landscape, it may not completely outcompete damesrocket in all situations. Studies of invasive species in competition are important in degraded landscapes because this is the common situation in many natural areas.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗
USGS2016

Population-specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

Restoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life-history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life-table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population-specific life-history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle ( Cirsium pitcheri ). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population-specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life-history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population-specific demographic influences on metapopulation viability. In understanding the underlying causes of the projected extinction probabilities of each population and identifying broad-scale contributions of different populations to the metapopulation, the process of pinpointing target populations is simplified. More detailed analyses can then be applied to the target populations to increase population viability and consequently metapopulation viability. Based on our research, we suggest that the best approach to improve the overall metapopulation viability is to manage the contributions to population growth for each population separately.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus ): Spreading by fire

In many forest ecosystems, fire is critical in maintaining indigenous plant communities, but can either promote or arrest the spread of invasive species depending on their regeneration niche and resprouting ability. We examined the effects of cutting and burning treatments on the vegetative response (cover, stem density) and root resources of Oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus ), a liana invasive to North America that was introduced from East Asia. Treatments were control, spring cut, spring burn, spring cut & burn, summer cut, fall cut, fall burn, fall cut & burn, and fall herbicide. Cover was reduced the greatest by herbicide and summer cutting treatments, but increased more in the second year on moraine soils than on sandy soils. Burning and cutting & burning combined resulted in a resprout density four times greater than stem density prior to treatment for stems <2.5 mm diameter than cutting alone. For stems, across all diameter classes, there was a more than 100% increase in stem density with burning and almost a 300% increase in stem density with cutting & burning in the spring. Density of resprouts and root-suckers, and survival increased with increasing stem size. While cutting of C. orbiculatus during the growing season (summer) reduced total nonstructural carbohydrates by 50% below early growing season levels and 75% below dormant season levels, burning did not significantly reduce total nonstructural carbohydrates. Thus, Oriental bittersweet is quite responsive to burning as a disturbance and resprouting and root-suckering creates additional opportunities for growth and attainment of the forest canopy. The positive response of Oriental bittersweet to burning has important implications for management of invasive lianas in fire-dependent forest landscapes.

Indiana↗