Geology topics

Nicole S. Khan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicole S. Khan.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

A statistical framework for integrating nonparametric proxy distributions into geological reconstructions of relative sea level

Robust, proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea-level (RSL) change are critical to distinguishing the processes that drive spatial and temporal sea-level variability. The relationships between individual proxies and RSL can be complex and are often poorly represented by traditional methods that assume Gaussian likelihood distributions. We develop a new statistical framework to estimate past RSL change based on nonparametric, empirical modern distributions of proxies in relation to RSL, applying the framework to corals and mangroves as an illustrative example. We validate our model by comparing its skill in reconstructing RSL and rates of change to two previous RSL models using synthetic time-series datasets based on Holocene sea-level data from South Florida. The new framework results in lower bias, better model fit, and greater accuracy and precision than the two previous RSL models. We also perform sensitivity tests using sea-level scenarios based on two periods of interest – meltwater pulses (MWPs) and the Holocene – to analyze the sensitivity of the statistical reconstructions to the quantity and precision of proxy data; we define high-precision indicators, such as mangroves and the reef-crest coral Acropora palmata , with 2 σ vertical uncertainties within ± 3 m and lower-precision indicators, such as Orbicella spp., with 2 σ vertical uncertainties within ± 10 m. For reconstructing rapid rates of change in RSL of up to ∼ 40 m kyr −1 , such as those that may have characterized MWPs during deglacial periods, we find that employing the nonparametric model with 5 to 10 high-precision data points per kiloyear enables us to constrain rates to within ± 3 m kyr −1 (1 σ ). For reconstructing RSL with rates of up to ∼ 15 m kyr −1 , as observed during the Holocene, we conclude that employing the model with 5 to 10 high-precision (or a combination of high- and low-precision) data points per kiloyear enables precise estimates of RSL within ± ∼ "> 2 m (2 σ ) and accurate RSL reconstructions with errors ≲ 0.7 m. Employing the nonparametric model with only lower-precision indicators also produces fairly accurate estimates of RSL with errors ≲ 1.50 m, although with less precision, only constraining RSL to ± ∼ "> 3–4 m (2 σ ). Although the model performs better than previous models in terms of bias, model fit, accuracy, and precision, it is computationally expensive to run because it requires inverting large matrices for every sample. The new model also provides minimal gains over similar models when a large quantity of high-precision data are available. Therefore, we recommend incorporating the nonparametric likelihood distributions when no other information (e.g., reef facies or epibionts indicative of shallow-water environments to refine coral elevational uncertainties) or no high-precision data are available at a location or during a given time period of interest.

Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology a↗

USGS2022

Relative sea-level change in South Florida during the past ~5000 years

A paucity of detailed relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions from low latitudes hinders efforts to understand the global, regional, and local processes that cause RSL change. We reconstruct RSL change during the past ~5 ka using cores of mangrove peat at two sites (Snipe Key and Swan Key) in the Florida Keys. Remote sensing and field surveys established the relationship between peat-forming mangroves and tidal elevation in South Florida. Core chronologies are developed from age-depth models applied to 72 radiocarbon dates (39 mangrove wood macrofossils and 33 fine-fraction bulk peat). RSL rose 3.7 m at Snipe Key and 5.0 m at Swan Key in the past 5 ka, with both sites recording the fastest century-scale rate of RSL rise since ~1900 CE (~2.1 mm/a). We demonstrate that it is feasible to produce near-continuous reconstructions of RSL from mangrove peat in regions with a microtidal regime and accommodation space created by millennial-scale RSL rise. Decomposition of RSL trends from a network of reconstructions across South Florida using a spatio-temporal model suggests that Snipe Key was representative of regional RSL trends, but Swan Key was influenced by an additional local-scale process acting over at least the past five millennia. Geotechnical analysis of modern and buried mangrove peat indicates that sediment compaction is not the local-scale process responsible for the exaggerated RSL rise at Swan Key. The substantial difference in RSL between two nearby sites highlights the critical need for within-region replication of RSL reconstructions to avoid misattribution of sea-level trends, which could also have implications for geophysical modeling studies using RSL data for model tuning and validation.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Lateral shoreline erosion and shore-proximal sediment deposition on a coastal marsh from seasonal, storm and decadal measurements

The persistence of coastal marsh is dependent on its ability to maintain elevation relative to sea level, particularly for marshes experiencing high rates of shoreline erosion due to wave-attack, storms, and sea level rise. Sediments eroded at the marsh edge are either delivered onto the marsh platform or into the estuary, the latter resulting in a net loss of marsh sediments and soil carbon. Knowledge on the timing, pattern, and quantity of sediment deposition versus shoreline erosion along the marsh-estuary interface is critical for evaluating the overall health and vulnerability of coastal marshes to future scenarios of sea level rise and for estimating sediment budgets . Here we examined marsh shoreline erosion and sediment deposition for marsh sites experiencing a range of shoreline erosion rates and different levels of wind-wave exposure within the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and Wildlife Refuge in Mississippi. We developed a method for calculating an erosion-deposition sediment budget using marsh elevation profiles, shoreline erosion rate, and sediment deposition measurements. Sediment budgets were calculated at four sites with varying shoreline erosion rates. Much of the sediment eroded at the marsh edge can be accounted for as marsh platform deposition, except at the most erosive site, suggesting a possible erosion threshold where eroded sediment mass is greater than platform deposition. Consistent with other studies of marsh creeks, sediment delivery to the marsh platform appears to be largely driven by wave climate. These data suggest that for erosive bay-estuarine shorelines, sediment delivered into the marsh is largely concentrated near the marsh shoreline, although shoreline erosion does not always result in a net loss of sediments from the marsh system in either decadal or annual assessments.

Mississippi↗

USGS2015

Annual and seasonal distribution of intertidal foraminifera and stable carbon isotope geochemistry, Bandon Marsh, Oregon, USA

We investigated the influence of inter-annual and seasonal differences on the distribution of live and dead foraminifera, and the inter-annual variability of stable carbon isotopes (d13C), total organic carbon (TOC) values and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios in bulk sediments from intertidal environments of Bandon Marsh (Oregon, USA). Living and dead foraminiferal species from 10 stations were analyzed over two successive years in the summer (dry) and fall (wet) seasons. There were insignificant inter-annual and seasonal variations in the distribution of live and dead species. But there was a noticeable decrease in calcareous assemblages (Haynesina sp.) between live populations and dead assemblages, indicating that most of the calcareous tests were dissolved after burial; the agglutinated assemblages were comparable between constituents. The live populations and dead assemblages were dominated by Miliammina fusca in the tidal flat and low marsh, Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata and M. fusca in the high marsh, and Trochamminita irregularis and Balticammina pseudomacrescens in the highest marsh to upland. Geochemical analyses (d13C, TOC and C/N of bulk sedimentary organic matter) show no significant influence of inter-annual variations but a significant correlation of d13C values (R = 20.820, p , 0.001), TOC values (R = 0.849, p , 0.001) and C/N ratios (R = 0.885, p , 0.001) to elevation with respect to the tidal frame. Our results suggest that foraminiferal assemblages and d13C and TOC values, as well as C/N ratios, in Bandon Marsh are useful in reconstructing paleosea-levels on the North American Pacific coast.

Oregon↗

USGS2013

Tracking sedimentation from the historic A.D. 2011 Mississippi River flood in the deltaic wetlands of Louisiana, USA

Management and restoration of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (southern United States) and associated wetlands require a quantitative understanding of sediment delivery during large flood events, past and present. Here, we investigate the sedimentary fingerprint of the 2011 Mississippi River flood across the Louisiana coast (Atchafalaya Delta, Terrebonne, Barataria, and Mississippi River Delta basins) to assess spatial patterns of sedimentation and to identify key indicators of sediment provenance. The sediment deposited in wetlands during the 2011 flood was distinguished from earlier deposits based on biological characteristics, primarily absence of plant roots and increased presence of centric (planktonic) diatoms indicative of riverine origin. By comparison, the lithological (bulk density, organic matter content, and grain size) and chemical (stable carbon isotopes of bulk organic matter) properties of flood sediments were nearly identical to the underlying deposit. Flood sediment deposition was greatest in wetlands near the Atchafalaya and Mississippi Rivers and accounted for a substantial portion (37% to 85%) of the annual accretion measured at nearby monitoring stations. The amount of sediment delivered to those basins (1.1–1.6 g cm −2 ) was comparable to that reported previously for hurricane sedimentation along the Louisiana coast (0.8–2.1 g cm −2 ). Our findings not only provide insight into how large-scale river floods influence wetland sedimentation, they lay the groundwork for identifying previous flood events in the stratigraphic record.

Louisiana↗

USGS2012

Linking the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood to coastal wetland sedimentation

Wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain are deteriorating in part because levees and control structures starve them of sediment. In Spring of 2011 a record-breaking flood brought discharge on the lower Mississippi River to dangerous levels, forcing managers to divert up to 3500 m 3 /s -1 of water to the Atchafalaya River Basin. Here we quantify differences between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River inundation and sediment-plume patterns using field-calibrated satellite data, and assess the impact these outflows had on wetland sedimentation. We characterize hydrodynamics and suspended sediment patterns of the Mississippi River plume using in-situ data collected during the historic flood. We show that the focused, high-momentum jet from the leveed Mississippi delivered sediment far offshore. In contrast, the plume from the Atchafalaya was more diffuse; diverted water inundated a large area; and sediment was trapped within the coastal current. Maximum sedimentation (up to several centimetres) occurred in the Atchafalaya Basin despite the larger sediment load carried by the Mississippi. Minimum accumulation occurred along the shoreline between these river sources. Our findings provide a mechanistic link between river-mouth dynamics and wetland sedimentation patterns that is relevant for plans to restore deltaic wetlands using artificial diversions.

Atchafalaya River↗