Geology topics

Nicole Paizis

Publications and source records attributed to Nicole Paizis.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Load estimation and trend analysis for nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, 2011–18

Lake Eucha is a source of water for public supply and recreation for the residents of Tulsa and other municipalities in northeastern Oklahoma. Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek flow into Lake Eucha and drain about 388 square miles of agricultural and forested land in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Beginning in the 1990s, eutrophication of Lake Eucha characterized by excessive algal blooms resulted in taste and odor problems associated with lake water when it is used for public supply. The predominant sources of phosphorus in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area were identified by previous investigators as runoff from fertilized agricultural areas (nonpoint sources) and treated effluent from a wastewater-treatment plant (point source). To further evaluate the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the City of Tulsa, estimated the loads and computed temporal trends of these constituents from water-quality and streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages in the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Estimates and comparisons of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins to Lake Eucha during 2011–18 were made by using different types of regression equations. The first type of regression equation is referred to as “daily mean load regression equations” and was developed from water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and daily mean streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages. The second type of regression equation is referred to as “instantaneous continuous load regression equations.” In addition to water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples, continuous real-time (every 15 minutes) measurements of physicochemical properties (specific conductance, water temperature, and turbidity), and continuous streamflow data were used to estimate instantaneous continuous loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment at two of the same five streamgages where daily mean loads were estimated. The use of these two types of regression equations was documented by previous investigators who estimated loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the study area by using data collected during 2002–10. The regression equations used to estimate constituent loads that were based on water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and continuous water-quality and streamflow data (instantaneous continuous load regression equations) better described the temporal variance in constituent loads compared to the regression equations based only on periodic water-quality data and daily mean streamflows (daily mean load regression equations). Estimates computed using instantaneous continuous load regression equations showed that mean annual loads of 1,844,000 pounds of total nitrogen, 150,300 pounds of total phosphorus, and 78,735,000 pounds of suspended sediment were transported into Lake Eucha from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Most of the estimated mean annual loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins entered Lake Eucha during runoff conditions, including about 80 percent of total nitrogen, 95 percent of total phosphorus, and 98 percent of suspended sediment. Daily, annual, and mean annual load estimates varied substantially, depending on streamflow conditions and the independent variables used to develop the regression equations. Daily and annual loads estimated from instantaneous continuous load regression equations that included specific conductance, water temperature, turbidity, and streamflow described the variability in the field data better than did loads estimated from daily mean load regression equations that included streamflow, seasonality, and time. Loads estimated from the instantaneous continuous load regression equations generally were greater than those estimated from the daily mean load regression equations. Temporal trends in total nitrogen concentrations showed statistically significant (probability value less than or equal to 0.05) downward trends during both base-flow and runoff conditions at all five USGS streamgages except for the streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period, showing upward and downward trends throughout the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base-flow and runoff conditions showed statistically significant upward trends at USGS streamgages 07191160 Spavinaw Creek near Maysville, Ark., and 07191222 Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. Total phosphorus concentrations showed a statistically significant downward trend during base-flow conditions at USGS streamgage 071912213 Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and in both base-flow and runoff conditions at USGS streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in suspended-sediment concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period and were similar to temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2021

Cimarron River alluvial aquifer hydrogeologic framework, water budget, and implications for future water availability in the Pawnee Nation Tribal jurisdictional area, Payne County, Oklahoma, 2016–18

The Cimarron River is a free-flowing river and is a major source of water as it flows across Oklahoma. Increased demand for water resources within the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer in north-central Oklahoma (primarily in Payne County) has led to increases in groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, public, irrigation, industrial, and domestic supply purposes. The Pawnee Nation of Oklahoma (Pawnee Nation) is particularly concerned about the sustainability of the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer and whether the aquifer will continue to be a viable water resource for future generations of Tribal members and residents. To better understand current (2021) water resources and possible future water availability in the Pawnee Nation Tribal jurisdictional area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Pawnee Nation of Oklahoma, compiled available hydrogeologic data and developed conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models for the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer in Payne County, north-central Oklahoma, including a focus area in the Pawnee Nation Tribal jurisdictional area for the 2016–18 study period. A conceptual water budget was created to establish estimates of groundwater fluxes into and out of the aquifer through hydrologic boundaries and groundwater withdrawals for use in the numerical groundwater-flow model. The conceptual water budget focuses on the alluvial aquifer, meaning that inflows include sources of water to the aquifer and that outflows include sources of water out of the aquifer, such as base-flow contributions to the Cimarron River. The conceptual water budget was constructed by using data from 2017 (the most complete year of record for each data type included in the model) for the Pawnee Nation subdomain of the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer model extent (Pawnee Nation subdomain). Groundwater withdrawals were estimated from groundwater-withdrawal rate information for permanent and temporary permitted wells that was obtained from the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. One-half of each annual permitted groundwater-withdrawal rate allotted was used as the estimated annual groundwater-withdrawal amount. Halving the permitted groundwater-withdrawal rate was done because permitted withdrawal rates are the maximum permitted rate and actual groundwater withdrawals are generally appreciably lower than the maximum permitted rate. Total groundwater withdrawals were estimated as 1,300 acre-feet per year for the Pawnee Nation subdomain. Various hydrogeologic data were measured to assist with model development, including depth to bedrock and water-table altitude data. In support of the model development, analyses pertaining to groundwater flow, groundwater/surface-water interactions, base flows in the Cimarron River, and lithological interpretations in the Pawnee Nation Tribal jurisdictional area were used to compute a conceptual water budget applicable to the 2016–18 study period. A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed using the hydrogeologic framework of the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer and the conceptual water budget. The numerical model consists of a single layer representing alluvium and terrace deposits within the alluvial aquifer model area. Hydraulic conductivities were estimated and modeled for the alluvium and terrace deposits in the alluvial aquifer. Base-flow values were estimated using the base-flow index from streamflow data collected at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Stream seepage values were derived from the mean 2017 base-flow index between certain streamgages. Hydraulic conductivities were specified an initial (before calibration) value of 120 feet per day for the alluvium deposits and 16 feet per day for the terrace deposits. The simulated inflows in the numerical groundwater-flow model of the Pawnee Nation subdomain were higher than the inflows of conceptual water budget, and the simulated outflows were lower than the outflows of the conceptual water budget. Overall, simulated base flows matched closely to observed base flows for the 2016 and 2017 stress periods. Simulated streamflow tended to match better with the observed streamflow for 2017, which was the period with the most data for the Cimarron River alluvial aquifer model. Streamflow capture analysis was applied to the steady-state simulation to identify areas of the aquifer where base flows in the Cimarron River were most sensitive to groundwater withdrawals. The initial base-flow value was assigned the value obtained from streamflow-routing software used to simulate stream outflow for the calibrated steady-state base model. Subsequent simulations were run in each active cell in the Pawnee Nation subdomain for a specified groundwater-withdrawal rate of 180,000 cubic feet per day. The study area that includes the Pawnee Nation subdomain is in the upper Arkansas River Basin. A groundwater-withdrawal rate of 180,000 cubic feet per second per day represents a 34 percent increase compared to the highest permitted groundwater-withdrawal rate for the study area, which corresponds to the estimated 34 percent increase in groundwater withdrawals predicted by 2060 for the upper Arkansas River Basin. Simulated streamflow capture was highest in the alluvium deposits adjacent to the Cimarron River; that is, base flow in the Cimarron River decreased the most for simulated groundwater withdrawals in the alluvium deposits adjacent to the Cimarron River. Streamflow capture increased as the distance of a well from the Cimarron River decreased in the simulation. The northeastern part of the Pawnee Nation subdomain showed greater streamflow capture in a broader area; streamflow in that part of the Pawnee Nation subdomain is likely more sensitive to groundwater withdrawals compared to other parts of the Pawnee Nation subdomain.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2021

Hydrogeology and model-simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma, 1980–2015

The 1973 Oklahoma Water Law (82 OK Stat § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin (hereinafter referred to as an “aquifer”). The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is known as the equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate. At present (2021), the OWRB has not yet established a maximum annual yield and EPS pumping rate for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. To provide updated information to the OWRB that could support evaluation and determination of an appropriate maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the OWRB, conducted a hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. The Salt Fork Red River aquifer in Greer, Harmon, and Jackson Counties of southwestern Oklahoma is composed of about 274.5 square miles of alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Salt Fork Red River. The mean annual recharge rate to the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 was estimated to be about 2.94 inches per year, or 10.0 percent of the mean annual precipitation for the same period (29.4 inches per year). This 1980–2015 mean annual recharge rate is equivalent to a mean annual recharge rate of about 38,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer excluding about 19,764 acres comprising the Mulberry Creek and Horse Creek terraces. The mean annual recharge rates upgradient and downgradient from USGS streamgage 07300500 Salt Fork Red River at Mangum, Okla. (hereinafter referred to as the “Mangum gage”), apportioned by aquifer area (41.5 and 58.5 percent, respectively), were about 16,000 and 22,000 acre-ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual groundwater use for the study period (1980–2015) was 3,532.7 acre-ft/yr; about 77 percent of that groundwater use was for irrigation, and about 23 percent was for public supply. Most groundwater use for irrigation was associated with wells in the Martha terrace. A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of the numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer that reasonably represents the groundwater-flow system was developed to constrain the construction and calibration of the numerical model. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 and included a subaccounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from the Mangum gage. The numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was constructed by using MODFLOW-2005 with the Newton formulation solver. The model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was spatially discretized into 1,050 rows, 1,125 columns, about 170,000 active cells measuring 200 by 200 feet (ft), and a single convertible layer. The model was temporally discretized into 432 monthly transient stress periods (each with two time steps to improve model stability). An initial steady-state stress period represented mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the aquifer and produced a solution that was used as the initial condition for subsequent transient stress periods as well as some groundwater-availability scenarios. The model was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells and base-flow observations at selected streamgages. The simulated saturated thickness of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was determined by subtracting the altitude of the aquifer base from the simulated water-table altitude at the end of the numerical-model period (2015). The simulated saturated thickness was more than 75 ft in a paleochannel in the Dodson terrace near the Texas border. The mean aquifer thickness (sum of saturated and unsaturated) was 49.62 ft, and the mean saturated thickness was 28.55 ft. A simulated mean transmissivity of 1,024 feet squared per day was computed from the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and saturated thickness of each cell. The simulated available water in storage at the end of the numerical-model period (2015) was 526,117 acre-feet (acre-ft); about 42 percent of that total was available upgradient from the Mangum gage, and about 58 percent of that total was available downgradient from the Mangum gage (including the Mangum terrace). Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were run using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that ensures a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were about 0.51, 0.48, and 0.48 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 155,929-acre modeled aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 78,800, 74,900, and 74,700 acre-ft/yr, respectively. For the 20-year EPS scenario, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 6-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases; for the 40- and 50-year EPS scenarios, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 7-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases. Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the Salt Fork Red River. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by quantifying differences in groundwater storage and base flow in four 50-year scenarios, which applied (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2015), (3) 2015 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates at simulated wells. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a cumulative 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwestern Oklahoma. Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was 535,000 acre-ft, or 8,900 acre-ft (1.7 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude increase of 0.48 ft. Groundwater storage after 50 years of pumping at the mean rate for the study period (1980–2015) was 519,900 acre-ft, or 6,200 acre-ft (1.2 percent) less than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.34 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2015 pumping rates was 513,100 acre-ft, or 13,000 acre-ft (2.5 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.71 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was 509,700 acre-ft, or 16,500 acre-ft (3.1 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.89 ft. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. The period January 1983–December 1992 was chosen as the simulated drought period. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought) at the end of the simulated drought period (1992). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1983–92). Upstream inflows from the Salt Fork Red River, Turkey Creek, and Bitter Creek were reduced by 75 percent. Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period (1992) was 479,200 acre-ft, or 53,200 acre-ft (10.0 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model at the end of the drought period. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 2.9 ft. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, simulated base flows at the Mangum gage and USGS streamgage 07301110 Salt Fork Red River near Elmer, Okla., had decreased by about 80 and 70 percent, respectively.

Oklahoma↗