Geology topics

Nick M. Haddad

Publications and source records attributed to Nick M. Haddad.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Three decades of declines restructure butterfly communities in the Midwestern United States

Insects are declining worldwide, yet gaps remain in our understanding of how declines are distributed across species within communities. Using three decades of butterfly monitoring data aggregated from the Midwestern United States, we found that no butterfly species increased in abundance from 1992 to 2023. 59 out of 136 species declined (annual mean trend: −1.2 to −6.9% per year) with losses distributed across all functional groups including residents, migrants, rare, and common species. Community composition changed such that abundance is now more even across species, driven by more severe losses in abundance—but not richness—of common species compared to rare species. These widespread declines are likely cascading across ecosystems. Conservation efforts that focus on entire communities could mitigate butterfly biodiversity loss.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2025

Rapid butterfly declines across the United States during the 21st century

Reports of declining insect populations have received widespread media attention, but evidence for declines has been variable across regions and taxonomic groups. Edwards et al . examined trends in the most surveyed taxon: butterflies (see the Perspective by Inouye). Combining data from 35 citizen science programs across the continental US, the authors found declines in overall butterfly abundance over the past 20 years across almost all major regions. Two-thirds of studied species showed declines of more than 10%. Many insects have the potential for rapid population growth and recovery, but habitat restoration, species-specific interventions, and reducing pesticide use are all likely needed to curb population declines.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2022

Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2022

Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms

Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature. To demonstrate the importance of considering precipitation-driven phenology in ecological studies, we present a case study wherein we construct a mechanistic population model for a rare subtropical butterfly (Miami blue butterfly, Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri ) and use a suite of global climate models to project butterfly populations into the future. Across all iterations of the model, the trajectory of Miami blue populations is uncertain. We identify both biological uncertainty (unknown diapause survival rate) and climate uncertainty (ambiguity in the sign of precipitation change across climate models), and their interaction as key factors that determine persistence vs. extinction. Despite uncertainty, the most optimistic iteration of the model predicts that Miami blue butterfly populations will decline under the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). The lack of climate model agreement across the projection ensemble suggests that investigations into the effect of climate change on precipitation-driven phenology require a higher level of rigor in the uncertainty analysis compared to analogous studies of temperature. For tropical species, a mechanistic approach that incorporates both biological and climate uncertainty is the best path forward to understand the effect shifting precipitation regimes have on phenology and population dynamics.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Preserving connectivity under climate and land-use change: No one-size-fits-all approach for focal species in similar habitats

Habitat connectivity is essential for maintaining populations of wildlife species, especially as climate changes. Knowledge about the fate of existing habitat networks in a changing climate and in light of land-use change is critical for determining which types of conservation actions must be taken to maintain those networks. However, information is lacking about how multiple focal species that use similar habitats overlap in the degree and geographic patterns of threats to linkages among currently suitable habitat patches. We sought to address that gap. We assessed climate change threat to existing linkages in the southeastern United States for three wildlife species that use similar habitats but differ in the degree to which their ranges are limited by climate, habitat specificity, and dispersal ability. Linkages for the specialist species (timber rattlesnake), whose range is climate-restricted, were more likely to serve as climate change refugia – that is, they were more likely to be climate-stable – by the middle of the 21st century. This contrasts with the two more generalist species (Rafinesque's big-eared bat and American black bear), whose linkages were threatened by climate change and thus required adaptation measures. Further incorporation of projected land-use change and current protection status for important linkages narrows down our recommended conservation actions for each species. Our results highlight the surprising ways in which even species that use similar habitats will experience differences in the degree and geographic patterns of threats to connectivity. Taking action before these projected changes occur will be critical for successful conservation.

Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, M↗