Nicholas Young | USGS Science

USGS2023

Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists

Watch lists of invasive species that threaten a particular land management unit are useful tools because they can draw attention to invasive species at the very early stages of invasion when early detection and rapid response efforts are often most successful. However, watch lists typically rely on the subjective selection of invasive species by experts or on the use of spotty occurrence records. Further, incomplete records of invasive plant occurrences bias these watch lists towards the inclusion of invasive plant species that may already be present in a land management unit, because the occurrences have not been formally integrated into publicly accessible biodiversity databases. However, these problems may be overcome by an iterative approach that guides more complete detection and compilation of invasive plant species records within land management units. To address issues from unobserved or unrecorded occurrences, we combined predicted suitable habitat from species distribution models and aggregated invasive plant occurrence records to develop ranked watch lists of 146 priority invasive plant species on >4000 land management units from five different administrative types within the United States. Based on this analysis, we determined that on average 84% of priority invasive plants with suitable habitat within a given land management unit were as yet unobserved, and that 41% of those were ‘doorstep species’ – found within 50 miles of the unit boundary yet not detected within the unit. Two case studies, developed in collaboration with staff at U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Refuges, showed that by combining both habitat suitability models and invasive plant occurrence records, we could identify additional problematic invasive plants that had been previously overlooked. Model-based watch lists of ‘doorstep species’ are useful tools because they can objectively alert land managers to threats from invasive plants with high likelihood of establishment.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2021

Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States

In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI). In summer 2020, the Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains burned 486 km 2 and prompted alerts and evacuations along a 40-km stretch of WUI below 1,200 masl on the outskirts of Tucson, Arizona, a metropolitan area of >1M people. To better understand the changing nature of the WUI here and elsewhere in the region, we took a multidimensional and timely approach to assess fire dynamics along the Desertscrub-Semi-desert Grassland ecotone in the Catalina foothills, which is in various stages of non-native grass invasion. The Bighorn Fire was principally a forest fire driven by a long-history of fire suppression, accumulation of fine fuels following a wet winter and spring, and two decades of hotter droughts, culminating in the hottest and second driest summer in the 125-yr Tucson weather record. Saguaro ( Carnegia gigantea ), a giant columnar cactus, experienced high mortality. Resprouting by several desert shrub species may confer some post-fire resiliency in desertscrub. Buffelgrass and other non-native species played a minor role in carrying the fire due to the patchiness of infestation at the upper edge of the Desertscrub biome. Coupled state-and-transition fire-spread simulation models suggest a marked increase in both burned area and fire frequency if buffelgrass patches continue to expand and coalesce at the Desertscrub/Semi-desert Grassland interface. A survey of area residents six months after the fire showed awareness of buffelgrass was significantly higher among residents that were evacuated or lost recreation access, with higher awareness of fire risk, saguaro loss and declining property values, in that order. Sustained and timely efforts to document and assess fast-evolving fire connectivity due to grass invasions, and social awareness and perceptions, are needed to understand and motivate mitigation of an increasingly fire-prone future in the region.

Arizona↗