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Geology topics

Nicholas S. Green

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas S. Green.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Understanding predator-prey-competitor dynamics between Lower Missouri River Macrhybopsis and Scaphirhynchus using a population—bioenergetics model ensemble

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a long-lived, endangered fish in the Missouri River. Individuals become piscivorous as adults, so recruitment from stocking or reproduction could reduce populations of prey, including Macrhybopsis chubs. We constructed an individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model (IAMP) to represent the benthic community (sturgeons, chubs, and chironomids) of the Lower Missouri River (LMR) to explore scenarios of potential predator-prey-competitor dynamics. Our simulations suggest that chubs alone are unlikely able to support a level of LMR pallid sturgeon similar to historical or current populations. These simulations also suggest that adult pallid sturgeon may need to shift to non-chub prey fish to achieve the greater sizes observed in the Upper Missouri River. When annual hydrologic regimes were included, we found a negative relationship between chub relative abundance and previous year 30-day minimum flows. Inclusion of temporal environmental variability made it clear that large chub populations may be necessary to support LMR pallid sturgeon. When full stochasticity was included in the IAMP, chub population sizes needed to increase further to ensure continued reproduction and recruitment of both chubs and pallid sturgeon. These results support the hypothesis that the pallid sturgeon population in the Lower Missouri River may be food-limited. However, the full extent of this limitation and the management changes needed to address this will require more research on the biology and population dynamics of this fish community, on pallid sturgeon interactions with prey species, and on how sympatric species may be affected during the pallid sturgeon recovery process.

Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Ne↗
USGS2024

Survey effort and targeted landbird community metrics at Indiana lowland forest restoration sites

Many sampling and analytical methods can estimate the abundance, distributions, and diversity of birds and other wildlife. However, challenges with sample size and analytical capacity can make these methods difficult to implement for resource-limited monitoring programs. To apprise efficient and attainable sampling designs for landbird monitoring programs with limited observational data, we used breeding season bird point survey data collected in 2016 at four forest restoration sites in Indiana, USA. We evaluated three subsets of observed species richness, total possibly breeding landbirds, Partners in Flight Regional Conservation Concern (PIF RCC) landbirds, and interior forest specialists (IFSs). Simulated surveys based on field data were used to conduct Bayesian Michaelis–Menten curve analyses estimating observed species as a function of sampling effort. On comparing simulated survey sets with multiple habitat types versus those with one habitat, we found that those with multiple habitat types had estimated 39%–83% greater observed PIF RCC species richness and required 41%–55% fewer visits per point to observe an equivalent proportion of PIF RCC species. Even with multiple habitats in a survey set, the number of visits per point required to detect 50% of observable species was 30% higher for PIF RCC species than for total breeding landbird species. Low detection rates of IFS species at two field sites made precise estimation of required effort to observe these species difficult. However, qualitatively, we found that only sites containing mature forest fragments had detections of several bird species designated as high-confidence IFS species. Our results suggest that deriving specialized species diversity metrics from point survey data can add value when interpreting those data. Additionally, designing studies to collect these metrics may require explicitly planning to visit multiple habitat types at a monitoring site and increasing the number of visits per survey point.

Indiana↗
USGS2024

Studies to assess natural resource recovery and evaluate monitoring methods for restored bottomland hardwood forests

The Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration process assesses natural resource injury due to oil or chemical spills and calculates the damages to compensate the public for those injuries. Ecological restoration provides a means for recovering resources injured or lost due to contamination from oil or chemical spills by restoring the injured site after remediation, or acquiring or reconstructing equivalent resources off site to replace those lost due to the spill. In the case of restored forests, once restoration is implemented, monitoring of forest ecology helps keep recovery on track, with the maturation of forest vegetation, recovered soil conditions, and development of microbial, fungal, and faunal communities, necessary for ecologically functioning forests. This series of papers focuses on applying methods for monitoring restoration progress in forest vegetation and soils, and amphibian, avian, and mammalian communities, assessing strengths and weaknesses of different methods, and evaluating levels of effort needed to obtain accurate indications of forest ecological condition.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2024

Sicklefin Chub (Macrhybopsis meeki) and Sturgeon Chub (M. gelida) temporal and spatial patterns from extant population monitoring and habitat data spanning 23 Years

Sicklefin ( Macrhybopsis meeki ) and sturgeon chub ( M. gelida ) historically occurred throughout the Missouri River (MR), in some tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of the MR. They have been species of U.S. state-level conservation concern and U.S. Endangered Species Act listing candidates since the 1990s. We applied analytical approaches from occupancy modeling to correlation to monitoring data spanning 23 years to assess relationships between occupancy and time, space, environmental factors, habitat, and other species. Sicklefin chub occupancy appeared higher in the early to mid-2000s and mid-to-late 2010s. A potential decline in occupancy occurred for sturgeon chub in the mid-to-late 2010s. Spatially, chub occupancy was depressed for 159 to 438 km downstream of MR dams. Among macrohabitats, inside bends had relatively high occupancy for both species; secondary connected channels had relatively high values for sturgeon chub. Co-occurrence was likely between sicklefin and sturgeon chub and between chubs and shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhybchus platorybchus ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ). The observed co-occurrence of chubs and pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ; PS) was potentially higher than expected for adult PS. For juvenile PS, co-occurrence was lower than expected in the Lower MR and potentially higher than expected in the Upper MR, warranting future research. Results from this research suggest management for the improvement of sicklefin and sturgeon chub populations may benefit other MR fish populations.

Fishes↗
USGS2023

Visitor use and activities detected using trail cameras at forest restoration sites

We used trail cameras to monitor human visits and activities at two sites in northeast Indiana being restored to bottomland hardwood forests. These sites, managed as nature preserves, are close to cities, where trails and parking lots have been added for ease of access. In this study, trail cameras were successfully used to capture visitation rates and activity types. The two sites had median visitor use rates of 1 and 13 visitors per day. Across both sites, “parking lot use only” (62%), hikers (30.2%), and bicyclists (5%) accounted for more than 97% of site visits. Overall, most weekday visitor-time occurred during daylight hours, peaking at lunch and evening. Mean total number of daily visitors was higher during weekends; however, total daily visitor-time did not vary between days of the week. Michaelis-Menten rarefaction models of sampling efficiency across the study’s four camera stations suggest sampling duration of 27 to 55 days to accurately estimate mean daily visitor counts and 3 to 40 days to detect half the maximal numbers of observed activities. Study estimates of visitation provide land managers with information for accommodating visitor use activities on the restored sites and offer inputs for cultural ecosystem services assessments and associated economic analyses.

Ecological Restoration↗
USGS2023

Terrestrial invertebrate diversity and occurrence in restored hardwood forest floodplains, Indiana, United States, June–August 2016

This report provides a summary of terrestrial invertebrates collected at old field, mature, and restored hardwood forest floodplain sites in northeast Indiana. Invertebrate populations were sampled at selected sites using walking butterfly transects, pitfall-enhanced Malaise invertebrate traps (PEMITs), and sweep nets. We identified a total of 19 taxonomic groups of butterflies, with 1, 11, and 18 groups from the old field, mature, and restored sites, respectively. Samples collected with PEMITs captured 26 different invertebrate taxa and 4 vertebrate taxa on mature and restored sites (24 invertebrate taxa, each, on mature and restored sites; 3 and 2 vertebrate species on mature and restored sites, respectively). Sweep net sampling of restored sites captured 18 invertebrate taxa, including mantids (Mantodea), which were not detected using PEMITs. These data were collected in anticipation of assessing the progress of restored hardwood forest communities towards conditions associated with mature seasonally inundated floodplain forests in northeast Indiana.

Indiana↗
USGS2022

Interaction between transect design and animal distribution in distance sampling of deer

We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the consequences of violating statistical assumptions of distance sampling (DS) on the bias and precision of population estimates of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Distance sampling is a method for estimating the density of organisms using a distribution of observed distances to individuals. A key assumption of DS is that sampling transects are randomly located with respect to the population being sampled. Most DS transects used in National Parks follow roads and trails, which are not positioned randomly. We constructed spatially explicit simulations of surveys using 7 different types of deer spatial distributions and 3 survey designs. A significant interaction between survey type and deer distribution type explained most of the variation in population estimates across simulations and this interaction was also a significant predictor of the coefficient of variation (CV) of population estimates. Simulation results suggested that 1) non-road surveys were more robust to bias than were road surveys, 2) effectiveness of each of 3 survey types was dependent on the way deer were distributed across the landscape, and 3) non-road surveys produced unbiased estimates of populations affected by roads, whereas road surveys did not. The results of our study suggest that DS surveys using pre-existing roads and trails have potential biases resulting from study design, something that could be considered by land managers when constructing surveys.

Maryland↗
USGS2021

Enumerating white-tailed deer using unmanned aerial vehicles

The white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is an ecologically important species in forests of North America. Effective management of forests requires accurate, precise estimates of deer population abundance to plan and justify management actions. Spotlight surveys in combination with distance sampling are a common method of estimating deer population abundance; however, spotlight surveys are known to have serious drawbacks such as high costs and sampling biases. Therefore, we tested the effectiveness of enumerating deer from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights, conducted 1 and 6 March 2018, to develop population and density estimates in 2 United States National Parks: Harpers Ferry National Historic Park (HAFE) and Monocacy National Battlefield (MONO). Concurrent spotlight surveys at MONO enabled us to compare estimates obtained by the 2 methods. Deer density estimates by 4 observers of UAV‐obtained thermal imagery from HAFE were 94.5 ± 3.9 deer/km 2 . Concurrent UAV and spotlight surveys at MONO found 19.7 ± 0.5 deer/km 2 and 6.4 ± 4.9 deer/km 2 , respectively; suggesting that spotlight surveys may significantly underestimate deer densities. Despite the logistical challenges to UAV operation, our findings demonstrate that UAVs will become an invaluable tool for wildlife management as technology improves. © 2021 The Wildlife Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Maryland, West Virginia↗
USGS2021

Effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for white-tailed deer in the National Capital Region parks

We evaluated the effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for estimating population sizes of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 2001 to 2015 in parks of the National Capital Region (NCR), National Parks Service. Distance sampling is a method for estimating the density of organisms using a distribution of distances to observed individuals. Re-analysis of survey data for 9 of 11 NCR parks found that although the original park analyses likely estimated deer densities correctly, the uncertainties (coefficients of variation or CV) of the original estimates were likely underestimated. Power analyses based on the current analysis methods showed that survey effort at some parks was likely insufficient to reach the NCR target of a 20% CV. We simulated 7 different types of deer populations and 3 survey designs to assess how violations of the assumptions of distance sampling might have impacted population estimates. A significant interaction between survey type and population type explained most of the variation in population estimates across simulations. Simulation results suggested that (1) non-road surveys were more robust to bias in seven deer population distributions than were road surveys, (2) effectiveness of each of 3 survey types was dependent on the way deer were distributed across the landscape, and (3) non-road surveys produced unbiased estimates of populations affected by roads, whereas, road surveys did not. Based on this study, we recommend revisions of the NCR distance sampling program, including additional sampling effort for some parks and suggest alternative survey strategies to ameliorate potential assumption violations of distance sampling.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2020

Efficient mammal biodiversity surveys for ecological restoration monitoring

Efficient biodiversity surveys are critical for successful restoration monitoring and management. We studied the effect of varying sampling effort on the observed species richness of surveys of small mammals (trapping transects), bats (passive acoustic detection), and medium to large mammals (trail cameras). Field studies provided mammalian biodiversity data for 4 bottomland hardwood restoration sites in northeastern Indiana. Subsampled data were used to simulate monitoring surveys with a range of levels of effort. We then used hierarchical Bayesian nonlinear mixed models to analyze how different components of sampling effort affected observed species richness, a key monitoring outcome. We found that observed small mammal richness increased with the increased number of transects in a survey, while observed bat and medium to large mammal richness increased with the increased duration of sampling. Variation between sites was important for the observed richness of small mammals and bats but not for medium to large mammals. The key driver of richness observed in simulated surveys was related to the spatial scale at which target fauna interact with the habitat, with decreasing richness accompanied by a greater spatial scale of animal–habitat interactions. Our findings suggest taxon-specific recommendations for efficiently quantifying the mammalian diversity of managed sites.

Indiana↗
USGS2019

Amphibian monitoring in hardwood forests: Optimizing methods for contaminant‐based compensatory restorations

Amphibians such as frogs, toads, and salamanders provide important services in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and have been proposed as useful indicators of progress and success for ecological restoration projects. Limited guidance is available, however, on the costs and benefits of different amphibian monitoring techniques that might be applied to sites restored in compensation for contaminant injury. We used a variety of methods to document the amphibian communities present at 4 restored bottomland hardwood sites in Indiana, USA, and to compare the information return and cost of each method. For 1 method—automated recording units—we also modeled the effect of varying levels of sampling effort on the number of species detected, using sample-based rarefaction and Bayesian nonlinear (Michaelis–Menten) mixed effects models. We detected 13 amphibian species across the restored sites, including 2 species of conservation concern in Indiana—northern leopard frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and Blanchard's cricket frogs ( Acris blanchardi ). Sites across a range of restoration ages demonstrated encouraging returns of amphibian communities. Although more mature sites showed greater species richness, recently restored sites still provided important habitat for amphibians, including species of conservation concern. Among the 4 methods compared, amphibian rapid assessment yielded the highest number of species detected and the greatest catch per unit effort, with the lowest per-site cost. Our analysis of level-of-effort effects in the rarefied acoustic data found that number of nights sampled was a better predictor of observed species richness than the number of hours sampled within a night or minutes sampled within an hour. These data will assist restoration practitioners in selecting amphibian monitoring methods appropriate for their site characteristics and budget.

Indiana↗
USGS2018

Use of real-time dust monitoring and surface condition to evaluate success of unpaved road treatments

Fugitive dust from unpaved roads creates human health hazards, degrades road surfaces, and increases the cost of road maintenance. As a result, many different chemical treatments are applied to unpaved roads in an attempt to control dust and stabilize the wearing course. However, investigations of the effectiveness of these treatments have often been poorly planned or executed. The objective of this study was to use a combination of real-time dust monitoring and objective road condition evaluations to assess the success of two chemical treatments for a period of 19?months post-application, to provide quantitative information in support of road management decisions. Dust production from road sections treated with calcium chloride-based durablend-C™ or the synthetic fluid EnviroKleen® was monitored on five dates using a vehicle-mounted particulate matter meter. Both products reduced dust by up to 99% relative to an untreated control section during the monitoring period, and quantitative data from the meter were consistent with qualitative observations of dust conditions. Linear models of dust production indicated that road treatment and humidity explained 69% of the variation in dust over time. Road sections treated with either product developed less rutting and fewer potholes than the untreated control. Overall, the combination of real-time dust monitoring and surface condition evaluation was an effective approach for generating quantitative data on endpoints of interest to road managers.

Missouri↗
USGS2018

Population viability analyses for three Macrhybopsis spp. of the Lower Missouri River

Recent declines in three species of chubs that inhabit the lower Missouri River (shoal chub M. hyostoma , sicklefin chub M. meeki and sturgeon chub M. gelida ) have become a concern in the management of their own populations and the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) that feeds on them. These chub populations encounter threats from fish predation and habitat loss. With the recent advancements in the understanding of the reproductive life history of these species, their declines have prompted development of population models and population viability analyses. For each species, we developed an age‐structured population matrix model with hierarchical stochasticity, which partitions parameter total variance into sampling and temporal components. Using these models, we found population growth rate of all three chub species decreased when stochasticity was added to the model. While examining sensitivity, we found individual fish growth, as measured by length‐at‐age, to impact population growth rate and depending on the species, could be up to four times more influential than overall survival, the next most sensitive parameter. Current survival rates have large temporal variance; more research into accuracy and factors that influence survival rates is needed.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗
USGS2018

Potential responses of the Lower Missouri River Shovelnose Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) population to a commercial fishing ban

We developed an age‐structured population matrix model to perform population viability analysis for Lower Missouri River (LMR) shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus platorynchus ). We investigated potential effects of the commercial fishing moratorium put in place to help protect the similar‐appearing pallid sturgeon ( S. albus ). The model applies different components of total variance in life history parameters at different levels: sampling variance (parameter uncertainty) between model iterations; temporal variance (temporal environmental fluctuations) between time steps within iterations; and individual variance (individual differences) within each time‐step. The model predicted annual rates of population increase of 1.96% under historic fishing and 2.67% with removal of historic fishing. We identified combinations of fishing and harvest size restrictions that would permit a sustainable harvest of shovelnose sturgeon. Overall, the ban on commercial fishing of shovelnose sturgeon in the LMR due to similarity of appearance to pallid sturgeon should help the LMR shovelnose sturgeon population begin to rebound while decreasing any negative effects it may have had on pallid sturgeon populations.

Lower Missouri River basin↗
USGS2017

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Lower Missouri River↗
USGS2016

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z ) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level. The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Open-File Report↗