Nicholas R. Record | USGS Science

USGS2022

The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short- and long-term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in timing; 3) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and 4) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of some larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine, identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Maine↗