Geology topics

Neil Paprocki

Publications and source records attributed to Neil Paprocki.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Cost of migration increased during an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Migration is thought to be costly such that challenges faced during migration likely affect how birds migrate through direct selection on migratory behavior. Survival throughout the annual cycle and conditions that affect the survival costs of migration are therefore critical to our understanding of the causes and consequences of migration. Estimating daily survival throughout the annual cycle of migratory birds has only recently become possible. We used over a decade of GPS tracking data from 186 migratory Buteo lagopus to quantify causes of mortality as well as demographic, seasonal, and spatial variation in daily survival and how survival consequences of migration changed during an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. The cost of migration via direct mortality varied between avian influenza and baseline study periods. Surprisingly, mortality risk during typical spring migrations was lower than in all other seasons, but mortality risk during the avian influenza outbreak was higher during both spring and fall migrations. Additionally, we found increased mortality risk in females during the avian influenza outbreak but no sex differences during baseline periods. Hence, the relative cost of migration was altered by the virus. During baseline periods, mortality risk was highest during late fall migration and winter, coinciding with increased anthropogenic-related mortalities at lower latitudes. However, the number of deaths caused by avian influenza (n = 11) in a single year equaled the total number of deaths caused by anthropogenic-related factors (n = 11; primarily collision trauma and persecution) across all 12 study years. Overall, our study highlights how added stressors such as disease outbreaks and anthropogenic factors may exacerbate existing seasonal constraints by directly increasing mortality risk.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2025

Increased mortality rates caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in a migratory raptor

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has caused extensive mortalities in wild birds with a disproportionate impact on raptors since 2021. The population-level impact of HPAIV can be informed by telemetry studies that track large samples of initially healthy, wild birds. We leveraged movement data from 71 rough-legged hawks ( Buteo lagopus ) across all major North American migratory bird flyways concurrent with the 2022–2023 HPAIV outbreak and identified a total of 29 mortalities, of which 11 were confirmed, and an additional ~9 were estimated to have been caused by HPAIV. We estimated a 28% HPAIV cause-specific mortality rate among rough-legged hawks during a single year concurrent with the HPAIV outbreak in North America. Additionally, the overall mortality rate during the HPAIV outbreak (47%) was significantly higher than baseline annual mortality rates (3%–17%) suggesting that HPAIV-caused deaths were additive above baseline mortality levels. HPAIV mortalities were concentrated within the Central and Atlantic flyways during prebreeding migration and peaked in April 2022 when large-scale HPAIV mortalities were reported in other wild birds throughout North America. HPAIV exposure was most likely caused by scavenging or preying on infected waterfowl, as rough-legged hawks are known to opportunistically scavenge during the nonbreeding season. We utilized movement data to identify a continental-scale HPAIV cause-specific mortality event in rough-legged hawks that has the potential to exacerbate ongoing population declines. Our study highlights the usefulness of monitoring movement data to pinpoint sources of mortality that can help better understand the drivers of population change, even if studies are focused on other research questions.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2025

Causes of differential migration distance: Test of seven mechanistic hypotheses in an arctic raptor

Exploring the causes of differential migration, or variation in migration distance, has increased our understanding of the remarkable variation in migratory behavior exhibited by birds more generally. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the mechanisms underlying differential migration distance in birds despite it being a common phenomenon. We leveraged migration distances from GPS-tracked rough-legged hawks Buteo lagopus to test predictions deduced from seven hypotheses proposed to explain the underlying cause(s) of differential migration distance. We provide the first empirical evidence in support of a social dominance food maximization hypothesis whereby dominant individuals migrate to higher quality nonbreeding locations with respect to foraging efficiency regardless of migration distance. Within females, larger more dominant individuals migrated intermediate distances while smaller, subordinate individuals migrated both longer and shorter distances. We also found support for the social dominance distance minimization hypothesis because more aggressive females migrated shorter distances, although increased aggression at shorter distances may be a consequence of poor body condition. Within males, we found some support for the fasting endurance and thermal tolerance hypotheses because body size was negatively correlated with migration distance. Body size was also negatively correlated with food availability and winter minimum temperatures within both sexes, providing additional mechanistic support for the fasting endurance and thermal tolerance hypotheses. Overall, our results suggest differential migration distance within rough-legged hawks is caused by a combination of competition for nonbreeding resources and constraints on fasting endurance or thermal tolerance, but is unrelated to competition for breeding opportunities, dietary preferences, or flight efficiency.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2024

The underlying causes of differential migration: Assumptions, hypotheses, and predictions

Mechanisms governing the migratory decisions of birds have long fascinated ecologists and sparked considerable debate. Identifying factors responsible for variation in migration distance, also known as differential migration, has been a popular approach to understanding the mechanisms underlying migratory behaviour more generally. However, research progress has been slowed by the continued testing of overlapping, non-mechanistic, and circular predictions among a small set of historically entrenched hypotheses. We highlight the body size hypothesis and suggest that the predictions commonly tested have impeded progress because body size relationships with migration distance are predictions made by several distinct hypotheses with contrasting mechanisms. The cost of migration itself has not been adequately accounted for in most hypotheses, and we propose two flight efficiency hypotheses with time- and energy-minimizing mechanisms that allow individuals to mitigate the risks inherent to longer migrations. We also advance two conceptual versions of the social dominance hypothesis based on two distinct underlying mechanisms related to distance minimization and food maximization that will help clarify the role of competition in driving migratory decisions. Overall, we describe and refine 12 mechanistic hypotheses proposed to explain differential migration (along with several other special-case hypotheses), seven of which have underlying mechanisms related to food limitation as past research has identified this to be an important driver of differential migration. We also thoroughly reviewed 145 publications to assess the amount of support for 10 critical assumptions underlying alternative hypotheses for differential migration in birds. Our review reveals that surprisingly few studies explicitly evaluate assumptions within a differential migration context. Generating and testing strong predictions and critical assumptions underlying mechanisms of alternative hypotheses will improve our ability to differentiate among these explanations of differential migration. Additionally, future intraspecific progress will be greatest if investigators continue to focus on mechanisms underlying variation in migration distance within rather than among demographic classes, as previous research has found differing mechanisms to be responsible for differential migration among demographic classes. Interspecifically, a thorough comparative analysis that seeks to explain variation in migration distance among species would broaden both our understanding of the mechanisms regulating current differential migration patterns and those that led to the evolution of migration more generally. Collectively, we provide a framework that, together with advances in animal-borne tracking and other technology, can be used to advance our understanding of the causes of differential migration distance, and migratory decisions more generally.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2024

Differential effects of chewing lice on body condition across host age and sex in Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo Lagopus)

Chewing lice infesting avian hosts can significantly affect host health and fitness. Here, we present quantitative data on host body condition and louse abundance observed from 121 Rough-legged Hawks ( Buteo lagopus ) sampled across the North American nonbreeding range. Among hawks examined, louse prevalence was 71%, with a mean abundance and intensity of 9.1 and 12.8 lice, respectively. We identified lice as Craspedorrhynchus sp., either Craspedorrhynchus dilatatus or Craspedorrhynchus taurocephalus , dependent on future taxonomic revision of the genus. Female and juvenile hawks had greater louse intensity and prevalence compared with male and adult hawks, respectively. Host body condition, measured as a breast muscle score (keel score), was negatively correlated with louse abundance after controlling for host age and sex. Possible explanations for these patterns include the following: sex-biased louse transfer between adults and nestlings, when female nestlings experience increased transfer loads; body size differences between males and females, when females are larger than males in each life stage; and preening limitations in females and juveniles, when both spend more time hunting and less time preening relative to adult males. Our results corroborate previous studies suggesting that the primary sources of intraspecific variation in louse abundance are host body size and preening limitations.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2024

Comparison of seven DNA metabarcoding sampling methods to assess diet in a large avian predator

DNA metabarcoding is a rapidly advancing tool for diet assessment in wildlife ecology. Studies have used a variety of field collection methods to evaluate diet; however, there is a pressing need to understand the differences among sampling methods and the downstream inferential consequences they may have on our ability to document diet accurately and efficiently. We evaluated seven DNA metabarcoding sampling methods to assess the diet of a large avian predator: Buteo lagopus (rough-legged hawk). We collected beak swabs, talon swabs, cheek (buccal) swabs, cloacal swabs, and cloacal loops from captured birds, and collected fecal samples from both captured and uncaptured birds. We described and compared variation in prey recovery within and among the seven sampling methods and identified appropriate analytical methods to compare diet among individuals sampled via different methods. Beak and talon swabs produced the highest prey detection rates, yielded the greatest prey richness per sample, and contributed the most to an individual's total prey richness per sampling occasion compared to other sampling methods. Within individuals sampled using five methods during a single capture occasion, cloacal swabs and cheek swabs positively predicted prey richness and average prey mass, respectively, from fecal samples. While all methods identified similar dominant prey taxa that were consistent with prior diet studies, beak and talon swabs detected greater prey richness at both the individual and population levels. We propose a food residue duration hypothesis whereby methods which sample areas containing food DNA consumed from longer and more continuous pre-sampling time intervals explain variation among sampling methods in observed prey richness. Choice of sampling method can influence predator diet characterization and is particularly important if researchers wish to quantify uncommon diet items or compare diet metrics using samples collected via different methods.

Environmental DNA↗