Geology topics

Nathan Wolf

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Wolf.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Stochastic within-host dynamics and climate-sensitive traits generate predictable patterns of variation in disease outcomes

Understanding how climatic variables impact host-pathogen relationships in temperature-sensitive ectothermic host organisms is crucial under global change. Few studies have explored how temperature gradients generate inter-individual variation in epidemiological traits like host susceptibility or pathogen replication. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore a novel hypothesis: stochastic within-host dynamics and simulated thermal mismatches between host and pathogen traits generate predictable variation in infection outcomes among hosts and across thermal gradients. Our model demonstrates that varying trait thermal optima in host immunity and pathogen replication, and stochastic within-host processes produced variation in infection outcomes. Variability was low when temperatures strongly favored host or pathogen traits, but high and diverse when their performance was similar across a broad thermal range. In contrast, when trait performance was equal across all temperatures (no mismatch) variability remained low at all temperatures. Further, the magnitude of variation, quantified by entropy, exhibited predictable patterns depending on host-pathogen thermal mismatches. We conclude that interactions between trait thermal mismatches and within-host stochasticity provide a theoretical framework to improve ectotherm disease models under climate change, providing a valuable tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on epizootic or epidemic dynamics, particularly in vulnerable marine ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗

USGS2022

Juvenile salmon habitat use drives variation in growth and highlights vulnerability to river fragmentation

Widespread stream network fragmentation from dams and culverts has altered habitat connectivity in river ecosystems and presents an acute threat to migratory fish. To support watershed management for an iconic migratory fish group, we assessed juvenile salmon growth outcomes across habitat use strategies and characterized how these life histories may be impacted by stream connectivity loss. Juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in the Big Lake drainage, Alaska, USA, were individually tracked over 2012–2013 and categorized into habitat use behaviors, with fish either remaining in streams throughout freshwater residency or migrating seasonally to overwinter in lake habitats. Size, growth rate, and body condition of smolts ( n = 1113) were compared across habitat use strategies. Juvenile coho salmon that moved seasonally to lake overwintering habitats, the most frequently observed strategy, grew faster and were significantly larger as smolts compared to their counterparts who remained in streams exclusively (spring Age 1 fish: 18% larger by weight, 9% faster growth rate; spring Age 2+ fish: 26% heavier, 11% faster growth). Environmental data from a subset of overwinter lakes indicate that greater foraging opportunity and lower energy costs may be implicated in growth advantages conferred by lentic overwintering strategies. Habitat use strategies requiring seasonal migrations, however, increased exposure to stream connectivity loss, and fish blocked from accessing a potential overwinter headwater lake by a culvert and dam had lowest body condition among study groups. Stream network fragmentation restricts access to preferred overwinter habitats, and our findings suggest this may constrain freshwater rearing strategies associated with strong juvenile coho salmon growth. As size at smolt has been implicated as a driver of salmon survival through ocean residency, reduced freshwater habitat connectivity during juvenile stages may have deleterious impacts on later marine life stages. Consequently, conservation of stream connectivity across lentic and lotic habitats represents an important watershed management priority for juvenile salmon.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Combining fisheries surveys to inform marine species distribution modelling

Ecosystem-scale examination of fish communities typically involves creating spatio-temporally explicit relative abundance distribution maps using data from multiple fishery-independent surveys. However, sampling performance varies by vessel and sampling gear, which may influence estimated species distribution patterns. Using GAMMs, the effect of different gear–vessel combinations on relative abundance estimates at length was investigated using European fisheries-independent groundfish survey data. We constructed a modelling framework for evaluating relative efficiency of multiple gear–vessel combinations. 19 northeast Atlantic surveys for 254 species-length combinations were examined. Space-time variables explained most of the variation in catches for 181/254 species-length cases, indicating that for many species, models successfully characterized distribution patterns when combining data from disparate surveys. Variables controlling for gear efficiency explained substantial variation in catches for 127/254 species-length data sets. Models that fail to control for gear efficiencies across surveys can mask changes in the spatial distribution of species. Estimated relative differences in catch efficiencies grouped strongly by gear type, but did not exhibit a clear pattern across species’ functional forms, suggesting difficulty in predicting the potential impact of gear efficiency differences when combining survey data to assess species’ distributions and highlighting the importance of modelling approaches that can control for gear differences.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2020

Exploring overlap of feather molting and migration in Tundra Swans using δ2H analysis

Determining the processes that shape the relative timing of energetically-costly events in the annual cycle of migrating birds is important to our understanding of avian phenology and ecology. We paired satellite tracking and hydrogen stable isotope analysis (δ 2 H) to examine the relative timing of two such events – migration and feather molting – in tundra swans from four breeding areas in Alaska, USA. Our results show a trend of increasing intra-individual variability in breast feather δ 2 H values with increasing migration distance, suggesting the overlap of breast feather molting and migration. However, when individual samples were pooled by breeding area, the δ 2 H values of breast and head feathers showed no trend with migration distance, presumably resulting from high levels of inter-individual variability in δ 2 H values within each breeding area. We explore potential reasons for this variability, propose potential mechanisms influencing feather δ 2 H values of tundra swans, and recommend further research into methods for exploring the temporal configuration of events in the annual cycle of migrating birds.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Ichthyophonus in sport-caught groundfishes from southcentral Alaska

This report of Ichthyophonus in common sport-caught fishes throughout the marine waters of southcentral Alaska represents the first documentation of natural Ichthyophonus infections in lingcod Ophiodon elongates and yelloweye rockfish Sebastes ruberrimus . In addition, the known geographic range of Ichthyophonus in black rockfish S. melanops has been expanded northward to include southcentral Alaska. Among all species surveyed, the infection prevalence was highest (35%, n = 334) in Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis . There were no gross indications of high-level infections or clinically diseased individuals. These results support the hypothesis that under typical conditions Ichthyophonus can occur at high infection prevalence accompanied with low-level infection among a variety of fishes throughout the eastern North Pacific Ocean, including southcentral Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Effects of trophic level and metamorphosis on discrimination of hydrogen isotopes in a plant-herbivore system

The use of stable isotopes in ecological studies requires that we know the magnitude of discrimination factors between consumer and element sources. The causes of variation in discrimination factors for carbon and nitrogen have been relatively well studied. In contrast, the discrimination factors for hydrogen have rarely been measured. We grew cabbage looper caterpillars ( Trichoplusia ni ) on cabbage ( Brassica oleracea ) plants irrigated with four treatments of deuterium-enriched water (δD = -131, -88, -48, and -2&permil;, respectively), allowing some of them to reach adulthood as moths. Tissue δD values of plants, caterpillars, and moths were linearly correlated with the isotopic composition of irrigation water. However, the slope of these relationships was less than 1, and hence, discrimination factors depended on the δD value of irrigation water. We hypothesize that this dependence is an artifact of growing plants in an environment with a common atmospheric δD value. Both caterpillars and moths were significantly enriched in deuterium relative to plants by ~45&permil; and 23&permil; respectively, but the moths had lower tissue to plant discrimination factors than did the caterpillars. If the trophic enrichment documented here is universal, δD values must be accounted for in geographic assignment studies. The isotopic value of carbon was transferred more or less faithfully across trophic levels, but δ 15 N values increased from plants to insects and we observed significant non-trophic 15 N enrichment in the metamorphosis from larvae to adult.

PLoS ONE↗