Geology topics

N.E. Seavy

Publications and source records attributed to N.E. Seavy.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2010

Postcatastrophe population dynamics and density dependence of an endemic island duck

Laysan ducks ( Anas laysanensis ) are restricted to approximately 9 km 2 in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, USA. To evaluate the importance of density dependence for Laysan ducks, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to estimate the parameters of a Gompertz model and the magnitude of process variation and observation error based on the fluctuations in Laysan duck abundance on Laysan Island from 1994 to 2007. This model described a stationary distribution for the population at carrying capacity that fluctuates around a long-term mean of 456 ducks and is between 316 to 636 ducks 95% of the time. This range of expected variability can be used to identify changes in population size that warn of catastrophic events. Density-dependent population dynamics may explain the recovery of Laysan duck from catastrophic declines and allow managers to identify population monitoring thresholds.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2009

Seabird nest counts: A test of monitoring metrics using Red-tailed Tropicbirds

Counts of nesting birds are often used to monitor the abundance of breeding pairs at colonies. Mean incubation counts (MICs) are counts of nests with eggs at intervals that correspond to the mean incubation period of a species. The sum of all counts during the nesting season (MIC total ) and the highest single count during the season (MIC max ) are metrics that can be generated from this method. However, the utility of these metrics as measures of the number of breeding pairs has not been well tested. We used two approaches to evaluate the bias and precision of MIC metrics for quantifying annual variation in the number of breeding Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda) nesting on two islands in the Papahnaumokukea Marine National Monument in the northwest Hawaiian Islands. First, we used data from nest plots with individually marked birds to generate simulated MIC metrics that we compared to the known number of nesting individuals. The MIC total overestimated the number of pairs by about 5%, whereas the MIC max underestimated the number of pairs by about 60%. However, both metrics exhibited similar precision. Second, we used a 12-yr time series of island-wide MICs to compare estimates of temporal trend and annual variation using the MIC max and MIC total . The 95% confidence intervals for the trend estimates were overlapping and the residual standard errors for the two metrics were similar. Our results suggest that both metrics offered similar precision for indices of breeding pairs of Red-tailed Tropicbirds, but that MIC total was more accurate. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2008

Translocation and early post-release demography of endangered Laysan teal

In an attempt to reduce the high extinction risk inherent to small island populations, we translocated wild Laysan teal Anas laysanensis to a portion of its presumed prehistoric range. Most avian translocations lack the strategic post-release monitoring needed to assess early population establishment or failure. Therefore, we monitored the survival and reproduction of all founders, and their first-generation offspring using radio telemetry for 2 years after the first release. Forty-two Laysan teal were sourced directly from the only extant population on Laysan Island and transported 2 days by ship to Midway Atoll. All birds survived the translocation with nutritional and veterinary support, and spent between 4 and 14 days in captivity. Post-release survival of 42 founders was 0.857 (95% CI 0.86-0.99) during 2004-2006 or annualized 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-0.98). Seventeen of 18 founding hens attempted nesting in the first two breeding seasons. Fledgling success was 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.60) in 2005 and 0.63 (95% CI 0.62-0.64) in 2006. The effective founding female population (Ne) was 13. We applied these initial demographic rates to model population growth. The nascent population size increased to >100 after only 2 years post-release (?? = 1.73). If this growth rate continues, the size of the Midway population could surpass the source population before 2010. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

Animal Conservation↗

USGS2007

Is statistical power to detect trends a good assessment of population monitoring?

The ability to detect trends in population abundance is of obvious interest to wildlife managers. In recent years, the probability of detecting defined population trends has been the most common method of assessing monitoring programs. Such analyses require many assumptions, including a model for population change and a model for variance. To demonstrate potential effects of these assumptions on power analysis results, we present data for Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda) from Tern Island, Hawaii. Depending on our assumptions, the power to detect a 50% decline over 10 years varied from 80% to 100%. We argue that monitoring standards based upon the ability to detect population trends should be applied cautiously. As a complementary approach, we propose that monitoring standards should emphasize attributes of sampling design that increase precision (e.g., randomization, bias, and detection probability). By using standards of precision, managers can focus on the sources of variation that can be minimized. A sampling design approach to monitoring standards provides a useful complement to standards of statistical power to detect annual trends.

Biological Conservation↗