Geology topics

Murray G. Efford

Publications and source records attributed to Murray G. Efford.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2013

Protocol for monitoring forest-nesting birds in National Park Service parks

These documents detail the protocol for monitoring forest-nesting birds in National Park Service parks in the National Capital Region Network (NCRN). In the first year of sampling, counts of birds should be made at 384 points on the NCRN spatially randomized grid, developed to sample terrestrial resources. Sampling should begin on or about May 20 and continue into early July; on each day the sampling period begins at sunrise and ends five hours later. Each point should be counted twice, once in the first half of the field season and once in the second half, with visits made by different observers, balancing the within-season coverage of points and their spatial coverage by observers, and allowing observer differences to be tested. Three observers, skilled in identifying birds of the region by sight and sound and with previous experience in conducting timed counts of birds, will be needed for this effort. Observers should be randomly assigned to ‘routes’ consisting of eight points, in close proximity and, ideally, in similar habitat, that can be covered in one morning. Counts are 10 minutes in length, subdivided into four 2.5-min intervals. Within each time interval, new birds (i.e., those not already detected) are recorded as within or beyond 50 m of the point, based on where first detected. Binomial distance methods are used to calculate annual estimates of density for species. The data are also amenable to estimation of abundance and detection probability via the removal method. Generalized linear models can be used to assess between-year changes in density estimates or unadjusted count data. This level of sampling is expected to be sufficient to detect a 50% decline in 10 years for approximately 50 bird species, including 14 of 19 species that are priorities for conservation efforts, if analyses are based on unadjusted count data, and for 30 species (6 priority species) if analyses are based on density estimates. The estimates of required sample sizes are based on the mean number of individuals detected per 10 minutes in available data from surveys in three NCRN parks. Once network-wide data from the first year of sampling are available, this and other aspects of the protocol should be re-assessed, and changes made as desired or necessary before the start of the second field season. Thereafter, changes should not be made to the field methods, and sampling should be conducted annually for at least ten years. NCRN staff should keep apprised of new analytical methods developed for analysis of point-count data.

Report↗

USGS2012

Occupancy in continuous habitat

The probability that a site has at least one individual of a species ('occupancy') has come to be widely used as a state variable for animal population monitoring. The available statistical theory for estimation when detection is imperfect applies particularly to habitat patches or islands, although it is also used for arbitrary plots in continuous habitat. The probability that such a plot is occupied depends on plot size and home-range characteristics (size, shape and dispersion) as well as population density. Plot size is critical to the definition of occupancy as a state variable, but clear advice on plot size is missing from the literature on the design of occupancy studies. We describe models for the effects of varying plot size and home-range size on expected occupancy. Temporal, spatial, and species variation in average home-range size is to be expected, but information on home ranges is difficult to retrieve from species presence/absence data collected in occupancy studies. The effect of variable home-range size is negligible when plots are very large (>100 x area of home range), but large plots pose practical problems. At the other extreme, sampling of 'point' plots with cameras or other passive detectors allows the true 'proportion of area occupied' to be estimated. However, this measure equally reflects home-range size and density, and is of doubtful value for population monitoring or cross-species comparisons. Plot size is ill-defined and variable in occupancy studies that detect animals at unknown distances, the commonest example being unlimited-radius point counts of song birds. We also find that plot size is ill-defined in recent treatments of "multi-scale" occupancy; the respective scales are better interpreted as temporal (instantaneous and asymptotic) rather than spatial. Occupancy is an inadequate metric for population monitoring when it is confounded with home-range size or detection distance.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2009

Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often <25 m, which suggests a bias of >50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

The Auk↗

USGS2009

Population density estimated from locations of individuals on a passive detector array

The density of a closed population of animals occupying stable home ranges may be estimated from detections of individuals on an array of detectors, using newly developed methods for spatially explicit capture–recapture. Likelihood-based methods provide estimates for data from multi-catch traps or from devices that record presence without restricting animal movement ("proximity" detectors such as camera traps and hair snags). As originally proposed, these methods require multiple sampling intervals. We show that equally precise and unbiased estimates may be obtained from a single sampling interval, using only the spatial pattern of detections. This considerably extends the range of possible applications, and we illustrate the potential by estimating density from simulated detections of bird vocalizations on a microphone array. Acoustic detection can be defined as occurring when received signal strength exceeds a threshold. We suggest detection models for binary acoustic data, and for continuous data comprising measurements of all signals above the threshold. While binary data are often sufficient for density estimation, modeling signal strength improves precision when the microphone array is small.

Ecology↗